The Nets are a bigger problem for the NBA than the Sixers
— -- The NBA spent much of the early part of the 2015-16 season worrying about the Philadelphia 76ers, who are in their third year as one of the league's worst teams with no apparent end in sight. Right in the same division as the Sixers, however, the Brooklyn Nets loom as a much greater long-term problem for the league.
As bad as things are now for the 10-28 Nets, who fired head coach Lionel Hollins and reassigned general manager Billy King in a housecleaning on Sunday, they stand the potential to get much worse because Brooklyn doesn't have the kind of draft picks and young talent the 76ers have spent the last three years accumulating. And that could turn one of the NBA's two New York franchises into an albatross for years to come.
Nets ignored the future to win now
While Philadelphia's rebuilding process under GM and president of basketball operations Sam Hinkie focused on the future with no interest in winning games in the short term, the Nets have chosen the opposite track under King and owner Mikhail Prokhorov.
After purchasing a majority stake in the team from Bruce Ratner in May 2010 (he recently completed a deal for full ownership), Prokhorov announced he anticipated winning a championship within the next five years.
That mindset empowered King, who has emphasized short-term results throughout his career as an NBA executive. In anticipation of the franchise's arrival in Brooklyn in 2012, the Nets made splashy trades for high-priced guards Deron Williams and Joe Johnson, giving up three first-round picks and the rights to swap picks in a fourth year in the two deals. Brooklyn also traded yet another lottery pick (which became Portland Trail Blazers point guard Damian Lillard) for veteran forward Gerald Wallace.
Fittingly, the defining trades for both the Nets and the Sixers were made on the same night, that of the 2013 NBA draft. Hinkie's first big move in Philadelphia was trading All-Star point guard Jrue Holiday for two first-round picks, which he ultimately parlayed into Nerlens Noel, European prospect Dario Saric and additional draft picks.
Meanwhile, Brooklyn doubled down on its veteran core by giving up three unprotected first-round picks plus the rights to swap an additional first-rounder to the Boston Celtics in the deal that brought future Hall of Famers Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce to the Nets.
Two and a half years later, that looks like one of the most lopsided trades in modern NBA history.
Brooklyn's empty cupboard
While the Nets have already paid the first of the picks they owe to the Celtics (used on James Young in 2013), they'll really begin to feel the pain this June. After buying out the final two years of Williams' contract, enabling them to avoid the luxury tax this season, the Nets have gone from fringe playoff team to also-ran.
At 10-28, Brooklyn has the league's third-worst record. And the Nets have lost all four games since starting point guard Jarrett Jack tore his ACL. The Celtics, not Brooklyn, will benefit from the ensuing lottery pick, nearly certain to be a top-five pick.
Because of the trade, the Nets have just one draft pick over the next three seasons -- and Boston has the right to swap that pick, too, leaving Brooklyn with the lesser of the teams' selections. So it will be difficult if not impossible for the Nets to add quality young talent to an aging roster.
Amazingly, Brooklyn has the league's eighth-oldest roster in terms of effective age weighted by playing time. While King did a nice job of buying low with young reserves like Shane Larkin (Jack's replacement at point guard), Willie Reed and Thomas Robinson, the only player younger than 27 on the roster who looks like a future starter is rookie swingman Rondae Hollis-Jefferson.
The Nets' insurance policy was their cap space, which they anticipated would enable them to reset even if their veteran-laden roster collapsed. What Brooklyn didn't foresee was the way the new TV contract would cause the salary cap to rise this summer, meaning nearly every team in the league will have money to spend. Given the chance to make the same money on a contending team, what top-tier free agent will sign with the Nets?
Before the season, Chad Ford and I ranked Brooklyn -- not Philadelphia -- last in Insider's Future Power Rankings projecting performance over the next three seasons. Nothing has happened this season to change that assessment.
Nets' Impact on the NBA
Attendance doesn't directly correlate with teams' financial health because it doesn't reflect average ticket prices and includes complimentary tickets distributed to fans. Still, this year's numbers tell a troubling story about the Nets, who are currently 28th in average attendance (14,810) -- two spots behind the 76ers. And remember, attendance tends to lag behind team performance because season tickets, packages and group tickets are typically sold before the season.
As unsuccessful as Philadelphia has been on the court, fans have at least been able to enjoy the development of talented young players like Noel and Jahlil Okafor. With no such prospects, no hope of help through the lottery and a wealth of alternative entertainment options, Brooklyn may struggle to get fans to come to an arena that is less than four years old.
The closest parallel for the Nets in recent NBA history is probably the Isiah Thomas-era New York Knicks, particularly after they traded a first-round pick and swapped rights to the Chicago Bulls as part of a deal for Eddy Curry. In 2005-06, the Knicks went 23-59 and sent Chicago the pick that became LaMarcus Aldridge (the Bulls traded his rights to Portland on draft night). From that point, it took New York five seasons to get back to the playoffs.
At least those Knicks were relatively young, with an effective age of 26.7 -- nearly two years younger than Brooklyn. And their pick obligations ended a year earlier, allowing them to draft Danilo Gallinari, who later became the centerpiece of New York's trade for Carmelo Anthony.
To find the last team more hopeless than Brooklyn, then, it might be necessary to go back to the 1980s Cleveland Cavaliers. Because of trades made by owner Ted Stepien and his predecessors, the Cavaliers didn't get the benefit of any of the seven lottery picks they should have made over the eight seasons between 1979 and 1986, including trading the No. 1 overall pick (used by the L.A. Lakers on James Worthy) in 1982.
The situation got so bad that the NBA was forced to compensate new owners George and Gordon Gund with additional first-round picks in the next four drafts when they bought the team from Stepien in 1983. It still took five years before Cleveland could get over .500 and dig out of the lottery for good.
To avoid a repeat, the league adopted what's known as "the Stepien Rule," preventing teams from trading draft picks in consecutive future seasons. That's why the Nets have any future first-round picks at all coming, but they still found a way to keep from getting their own lottery picks by giving up swap rights to the Hawks and Celtics.
No easy solution in Brooklyn
The league got its wish in early December, when 76ers managing partner Joshua Harris hired legendary NBA executive Jerry Colangelo to join the front office, with commissioner Adam Silver playing matchmaker. Philadelphia's moves since Colangelo's arrival, including trading for guard Ish Smith and signing Elton Brand as a veteran mentor, have signified a renewed focus on winning games.
Because the Nets lack the draft picks and young talent needed to improve, there's no such quick fix coming for Brooklyn, particularly given Prokhorov doesn't seem to realize how bad things are.
"I'm sure, for the next season, I hope we'll be championship contender," he told reporters at Monday's press conference announcing the team's management changes.
As long as Philadelphia sits below Brooklyn in the Atlantic Division standings, few observers will realize the magnitude of the problem for the Nets. But with the 76ers poised to convert the draft picks and young prospects Hinkie accumulated into players who can help them win now, that surely won't last. And soon it will be obvious that Brooklyn presents a bigger long-term issue for the league.