Numbers support chances for UNI, Creighton
By
KEN POMEROY via <a href="http://espn.go.com/" title="ESPN" class="espn_sc_byline">ESPN </a>
via
February 18, 2015, 5:09 PM ET
• 11 min read
— -- For several years, Missouri Valley fans have pleaded to have their conference anointed a major. I don't have the power to do that, nor would I want to do anything that would prevent Kyle Whelliston from covering the quality ball the MVC offers, but this season the Missouri Valley clearly is on a different level than the rest of the nonpower conferences. One way you can tell this conference is more like a major than a mid-major is that good play inside the conference can help earn an at-large bid. With five teams currently in the top 50 of the RPI, there are plenty of quality wins to be had on the 18-game conference schedule. How many bids will the MVC get? I'll leave that to Joe Lunardi to sort out, but it's hard to envision the conference getting fewer than three. And at least a couple of teams representing the Valley won't be content to hear their names called on Selection Sunday. They will be expecting to win a couple of games and get to the Sweet 16. Sweet 16 appearances (or the lack thereof) are what has kept the MVC from separating from a couple other notable nonpower conferences -- the Atlantic 10 and the MAC -- over the last few years. The MVC has put multiple teams in the field for each of the last seven seasons -- a total of 16 teams -- but only two of those made it to the second weekend. The A-10 has sent a total of 18 teams during that time and had four get to the Sweet 16. The MAC has only sent eight teams to the tournament since 1999, but also has put two teams into the second weekend of play. If there ever is a year for an MVC breakthrough, this is it. After thrashing Creighton at home last night, supposedly-in-transition Southern Illinois leads the league at 8-2. Northern Iowa and Wichita State are a half-game behind at 7-2, and Creighton is 7-3. All four are successful enough to be thinking at-large bid, but if we're going to discuss which teams have the most Sweet 16 potential, then Northern Iowa and Creighton top the list. Northern Iowa is not a newcomer to the MVC chase. The Panthers won the MVC tournament in 2004 and, as a No. 14 seed, took eventual Final Four team Georgia Tech to the limit in the first round of the NCAAs. Last season, they got an at-large bid and, as a No. 11 seed, gave Wisconsin a big scare. This season, Northern Iowa is headed for a single-digit seed. The steady seed improvement is supported by the trend in efficiency data over that time, which shows UNI has improved both offensively and defensively each season.
| UNI improvement |
| | ADJ. OFF. EFF. (RANK) | ADJ. DEF. EFF. (RANK) | EFF. MARGIN |
| 2003-04 | 103.6 (91) | 93.5 (66) | 10.1 |
| 2004-05 | 108.3 (51) | 94.5 (82) | 13.8 |
| 2005-06 | 112.5 (25) | 90.9 (39) | 21.6 |
If you want more than numbers, UNI has one of the most impressive nonconference road wins of the season. On Dec. 19, Northern Iowa went to Baton Rouge and knocked off LSU, 54-50. The result didn't get much attention then, but it's looking better with each passing week as LSU has established itself as the second-best team in the SEC. The one thing that stands out about UNI is how well-rounded the Panthers are offensively. The efficiency data can be separated into four basic components: shooting, turnovers, rebounding and free throws. Even the best teams don't excel at all four; a team doesn't have to in order to be successful. The Panthers are no different. On the offensive end they rank 41st nationally in shooting (measured by effective field-goal percentage), 26th in turnover percentage and 72nd in free-throw rate. But they are a lowly 300th in offensive-rebounding percentage. It's not that Northern Iowa can't rebound. On the contrary, the Panthers are ninth in the country in defensive-rebounding percentage. This is more about coach Greg McDermott's system. His team is determined to make the opponent score all of its points playing the half-court game. Going after offensive rebounds risks giving up a fast break -- a trade McDermott is not willing to make. And this shows up in the fact that UNI has allowed an average of only 3.5 points per game off the break. While a lot of teams use their defense to set up their offense, the Panthers work in the opposite direction. It's a unique approach, but one with a proven track record in Cedar Falls. Creighton also has been on the verge of a breakthrough in recent years. They have won at least 20 games the last seven seasons and been to the NCAA Tournament in six of those. Last season, they took eventual Elite Eight participant West Virginia to the final possession before losing 73-71 in the first round of the tournament. Creighton's season was on the brink of disappointment when senior shooting guard Nate Funk took a medical redshirt with an injured shoulder. Funk made 43.4 percent of his 3-pointers during his first three seasons at Creighton -- one of the more unheralded long-distance threats in the country. Initially, Funk's teammates didn't react well to his departure, losing to Chattanooga on Dec. 6 in their first game without him. But since then, Creighton has made the adjustment to life without Funk. The Jays currently sport a 13-5 record, and the recent six-game winning streak that ended Tuesday night included a road win over Northern Iowa. Junior college transfer Nick Porter has filled in admirably for Funk and provided solid defense (he's averaging 10.5 points and 4.5 rebounds in 26.6 minutes per game despite attempting only 20 3s). And defense is the reason Creighton is continuing to thrive without its offensive star. | Bluejays' D |
| | ADJ. OFF. EFF. (RANK) | ADJ. DEF. EFF. (RANK) | EFF. MARGIN |
| 2004-05 | 112.9 (19) | 94.8 (86) | 18.1 |
| 2005-06 | 108.4 (58) | 89.6 (32) | 18.8 |
The defense has been improved not only by Porter but also by guards Johnny Mathies and Josh Dotzler. Both have forced steals on 5 percent of the possessions they have played. For reference, only about 90 players in the nation have a steal rate of at least 5 percent. Creighton as a team forces turnovers on 25 percent of opponents' possessions -- good for 31st in the nation, an improvement from 21.6 percent and 106th last season. Both Northern Iowa and Creighton have realistic shots at creating a buzz for the MVC this March. If either does make it to the Sweet 16, they'll be handed the "Cinderella" label, but it won't be appropriate. Ken Pomeroy is the founder of kenpom.com and is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider.