Oregon now the national title favorite
— -- The Oregon Ducks are now the favorites to win the national championship at one Las Vegas sports book. The Ducks are the sixth team to play the role of favorite in a wide-open first season of the College Football Playoff era.
After blowing out Stanford 45-16 on Saturday, Oregon moved to 9-2 to win the national title at the Westgate SuperBook. The Ducks are followed by Alabama at 5-1. Florida State (7-1), Michigan State (7-1), Mississippi State (7-1) and TCU (8-1) also have single-digit odds at the SuperBook.
Alabama, Florida State and Ole Miss shared time as the favorite at the SuperBook during the first two months of the season, before Oregon took over this week. Georgia was the favorite last week at CG Technology's sports book, and Mississippi State was a co-favorite with Florida State last week at Caesars' sports book.
A bevy of teams remain in the mix, but potential elimination games loom in November. Auburn, at 10-1, is at Georgia on Nov. 15 and at Alabama on Nov. 29. Preseason long shots TCU and Kansas State collide Saturday, and top-ranked Mississippi State has games remaining at Alabama (Nov. 15) and at Ole Miss (Nov. 29). The Bulldogs are currently underdogs in both games.
Defending champion Florida State has the easiest remaining path to the four-team playoff, but has not been impressive.
"Florida State's probably not in my top 10," SuperBook head football oddsmaker Ed Salmons said, referring to his power rankings. "There's about seven or eight teams that are very close to each other at the top. Florida State isn't in that group."
Oregon, however, is among Salmons' top tier. The Ducks opened as 10-point favorites in a road test at No. 17 Utah this week and will be double-digit chalk in their final two regular-season games against Colorado and Oregon State. They'll also be favored in the Pac-12 championship game against any of the teams from the South Division.
Along with Oregon, TCU also is among elite teams in Salmons' power ratings. In January, the Horned Frogs opened at 500-1 to win the national championship at the SuperBook.
"We've got one $50 ticket on TCU at 500-1," Salmons said. "TCU has 18 tickets total. We do very well on them. In comparison, Ohio State has the most tickets with 176."
Ohio State's odds have been all over the map this season, opening at 12-1 and dropping to as low as 50-1 after quarterback Braxton Miller was ruled out for the season with an injury in August. The Buckeyes head into Saturday's showdown at Michigan State as 3-point underdogs. It's the first time this season and the third time in Urban Meyer's three seasons in Columbus that Ohio State has been an underdog. Meyer is 15-5 against the spread as an underdog in his career.
Back in July, the SuperBook had Michigan State as a 1.5-point favorite over the Buckeyes in one of the book's early games of the year lines. Salmons said he's taken six $1,000 limit bets on the Spartans and none on Ohio State over the past three months. But right now, he feels the teams are dead even.
"I guess you give Michigan State the edge, because Ohio State is asking a freshman quarterback to go on the road and win a big game," Salmons said. "It's a coin flip."
Snowy report prompts surge of bets
A Sunday morning report from snowy Foxborough caused a flurry of bets in Las Vegas. The report aired around 10 a.m. ET on ESPN's "NFL Countdown" and featured a bundled-up Sal Paolantonio braving blizzard-like conditions at Gillette Stadium, where the New England Patriots would host the Denver Broncos later in the afternoon.
A screen shot of the blustery scene circulated on social media, and bettors pounced.
This just in: it's really snowing in Foxborough this morning. Sal Pal in the middle of it! #Patriots #Broncos pic.twitter.com/0JABpUyJPc
- Ashoka Moore (@AshokaESPN) November 2, 2014
From 10 a.m. to 11:30 a.m., the MGM sports book took enough action on the under to drop the total from 54 to 49.5. The Westgate SuperBook said it immediately took two limit bets on the under after the report aired. The Stratosphere, William Hill and CG Technology sports books also reported a surge of action on the under.
"The bet count just kept growing toward the under," Jason Simbal, vice president of CG Technology Race and Sports, said. "Totals are not something you want to be too exposed on, so when you end up in a spot like that where everything is coming in on one side, you have to move it pretty aggressively. It ended up moving a full four points. Then, the game starts and there's not even a snowflake on the ground. We were laughing about it."
The weather cleared hours before kickoff, and the total closed back around 53 at most shops. The Patriots, home underdogs for only the fourth time since 2003, rolled to a 43-21 win, easily eclipsing the total.
"There was still some wind, but it's hard to keep these two teams under," Nick Bogdanovich, William Hill director of trading, said. "There was plenty of sharp money on the under, for sure."
The showdown between Peyton Manning and Tom Brady generated the most handle of Sunday's games, but was evenly bet at several books. The ticket count was divided by less than 90 bets between the two teams at the MGM, which took limit bets on both the Broncos and Patriots.
Despite the loss, the Broncos remained the Super Bowl favorites at 7-2 at the SuperBook. The Patriots are second at 5-1.
SEC drama hands sports books losing Saturday
The MGM took more overall bets on favored Mississippi, but the bigger money was Auburn. The fortuitous Tigers benefited from two Ole Miss turnovers inside the Auburn 5-yard line and prevailed 35-31. It was the biggest loss of Saturday for the books and sent several shops to a rare losing day.
"It was third straight Breeders' Cup Saturday that we've lost college football," MGM vice president of race and sports Jay Rood said. "Maybe the horse player is a little bit sharper sports bettor than they are given credit for."
Four times more money was bet on Auburn than Ole Miss at William Hill's sports book, and the Tigers were also the most lopsided decision at CG Technology, as well.
Oregon covering the 7.5-point spread in its win over Stanford contributed to a losing day at the Stratosphere. "We probably won more games than we lost, but Oregon and over and Auburn seemed to be on every ticket," Hugh Citron, Stratosphere sports book supervisor, said.
Early Week 11 college football action
Odds and ends
• With the hiring of manager Joe Maddon, the Chicago Cubs went from 40-1 to 25-1 to win the World Series at the SuperBook. The Cubs last won the World Series in 1908.
• With the injury to point guard Russell Westbrook, the Oklahoma City Thunder fell from 9-2 to 9-1 to win the NBA championship at the SuperBook.
• TCU (7-1 ATS) failed to cover the spread for the first time this season in a 31-30 win at West Virginia. Every team now has at least one loss against the spread. Western Michigan and Georgia Southern are both 8-1 ATS.
• All seven San Diego State games with posted over/under totals have stayed under.
This just in: it's really snowing in Foxborough this morning. Sal Pal in the middle of it! #Patriots #Broncos pic.twitter.com/0JABpUyJPc
From 10 a.m. to 11:30 a.m., the MGM sports book took enough action on the under to drop the total from 54 to 49.5. The Westgate SuperBook said it immediately took two limit bets on the under after the report aired. The Stratosphere, William Hill and CG Technology sports books also reported a surge of action on the under.
"The bet count just kept growing toward the under," Jason Simbal, vice president of CG Technology Race and Sports, said. "Totals are not something you want to be too exposed on, so when you end up in a spot like that where everything is coming in on one side, you have to move it pretty aggressively. It ended up moving a full four points. Then, the game starts and there's not even a snowflake on the ground. We were laughing about it."
The weather cleared hours before kickoff, and the total closed back around 53 at most shops. The Patriots, home underdogs for only the fourth time since 2003, rolled to a 43-21 win, easily eclipsing the total.
"There was still some wind, but it's hard to keep these two teams under," Nick Bogdanovich, William Hill director of trading, said. "There was plenty of sharp money on the under, for sure."
The showdown between Peyton Manning and Tom Brady generated the most handle of Sunday's games, but was evenly bet at several books. The ticket count was divided by less than 90 bets between the two teams at the MGM, which took limit bets on both the Broncos and Patriots.
Despite the loss, the Broncos remained the Super Bowl favorites at 7-2 at the SuperBook. The Patriots are second at 5-1.
SEC drama hands sports books losing Saturday
The MGM took more overall bets on favored Mississippi, but the bigger money was Auburn. The fortuitous Tigers benefited from two Ole Miss turnovers inside the Auburn 5-yard line and prevailed 35-31. It was the biggest loss of Saturday for the books and sent several shops to a rare losing day.
"It was third straight Breeders' Cup Saturday that we've lost college football," MGM vice president of race and sports Jay Rood said. "Maybe the horse player is a little bit sharper sports bettor than they are given credit for."
Four times more money was bet on Auburn than Ole Miss at William Hill's sports book, and the Tigers were also the most lopsided decision at CG Technology, as well.
Oregon covering the 7.5-point spread in its win over Stanford contributed to a losing day at the Stratosphere. "We probably won more games than we lost, but Oregon and over and Auburn seemed to be on every ticket," Hugh Citron, Stratosphere sports book supervisor, said.
Early Week 11 college football action
Odds and ends
• With the hiring of manager Joe Maddon, the Chicago Cubs went from 40-1 to 25-1 to win the World Series at the SuperBook. The Cubs last won the World Series in 1908.
• With the injury to point guard Russell Westbrook, the Oklahoma City Thunder fell from 9-2 to 9-1 to win the NBA championship at the SuperBook.
• TCU (7-1 ATS) failed to cover the spread for the first time this season in a 31-30 win at West Virginia. Every team now has at least one loss against the spread. Western Michigan and Georgia Southern are both 8-1 ATS.
• All seven San Diego State games with posted over/under totals have stayed under.