Philly should break bank for Mariota
— -- The Philadelphia Eagles are in a quandary. The team's 20-12 regular-season record over the past two years ranks tied for eighth in the league and yet the club missed the playoffs last year and still has zero postseason wins since 2008.
Chip Kelly's team also has a major question mark at quarterback and must decide whether to stick with the status quo or attempt to move up in the 2015 NFL draft with the hope of landing Oregon Ducks quarterback Marcus Mariota.
Putting all of the chips in on a single player can be a very risky move, but in this case the metrics, game tapes and other personnel elements are all in agreement: The Eagles need to break the bank and do whatever it takes to acquire Mariota. Let's look at the reasons why.
1. Mariota has operated the Kelly system better than any other Oregon quarterback
In his three seasons as Oregon's quarterback, Mariota posted a single-game Total QBR mark of 80 or higher against a major conference team on 25 occasions. He also trended upward in this area as his career progressed, as 18 of those 25 performances occurred over the past two seasons.
By contrast, in the five seasons prior to Mariota taking over, all of which were campaigns in which Kelly served as offensive coordinator or head coach, Oregon passers reached or topped the 80 QBR mark against major conference teams only 18 times. The Ducks' current head coach, Mark Helfrich, has altered this offense to be more pass-heavy than it was under Kelly's direction, but even with those changes, it's clear that Mariota has done a better job in this system than any other Oregon passer.
2. It would go a long way toward solving the Eagles' turnover problem
The Kelly run-first system is designed to significantly reduce turnovers. Up until the 2014 season, it worked wonders in this area, as only one of Kelly's Oregon or Philadelphia clubs had ever posted a double-digit interception total (his 2007 offense threw 10 interceptions).
That changed last season, as the Eagles threw a league-high 21 interceptions.
What makes this matter even more pressing is Philadelphia's quarterbacks racked up 16 bad decisions last year (a bad decision is defined as a mental error that leads to a turnover opportunity). These avoidable mistakes are normally turned into interceptions roughly half of the time, so when a team is racking up this level of bad decisions, it is almost assured of reaching double-digit pick territory even before the interceptions that come as a result of other types of plays (tipped passes, inaccurate throws, dropped passes, etc.).
The high bad decision total wasn't a matter of one quarterback doing a poor job here, as Nick Foles and Mark Sanchez both had eight on an almost even number of pass attempts (311 for Foles, 309 for Sanchez). Both quarterbacks also had bad decisions in five games, so it wasn't a matter of a single subpar performance throwing off the season-long total.
This looks to be an area where Mariota could make an impact, as he has shown a superb ability to protect the ball in the Kelly system. Mariota led all Power 5 conference quarterbacks in interception rate (0.9 percent) this past season and was tied for the top spot in interception rate among major conference quarterbacks over the course of his three seasons as a starter (1.2 percent). In addition, Mariota became the only Pac-12 quarterback to ever have two streaks of 200 or more passes thrown without an interception. Granted, rookie QBs have a tendency to throw a lot of interceptions, but Mariota projects as an NFL quarterback who will take care of the football during his career -- and he might even be an upgrade in his rookie year over what the Eagles got this season from Foles and Sanchez.
3. Mariota would upgrade their vertical passing game
One area where the 2014 Eagles faltered was production on passes thrown deep downfield. Their 11.0 yards per attempt (YPA) mark on passes that traveled 16 or more yards in the air ranked 18th in the league. This issue was even more pronounced on passes thrown down the middle of the field (defined as between the numbers), as Philadelphia passers faltered both in YPA (12.0, ranked 21st) and interceptions (nine, ranked last).
These were both areas in which Mariota excelled across the board last season. According to STATS, LLC, Mariota ranked first nationally in deep pass (16 or more yards) production (1,777 yards) and deep completion percentage (56.3) and was second in deep pass touchdowns (20).
Maybe even more impressive is how consistent Mariota was regardless of where his deep pass targets were located. According to the STATS, LLC passing map, Mariota posted a 23.1 YPA on deep passes thrown to the left middle side of the field, 24.9 YPA on deep passes thrown straight down the middle of the field and 20.7 YPA on deep passes thrown to the right middle side of the field. Those are all excellent numbers, and demonstrate his ability to distribute the ball all over the field. Just as important is that Mariota had only two interceptions on 55 throws down the middle of the field, which is a very good figure considering the dangerous nature of those attempts.
4. Mariota passes all of the Parcells rules
Over the course of his long tenure as a talent evaluator, Pro Football Hall of Fame coach Bill Parcells developed a set of criteria he used when drafting quarterbacks.
1. be a three-year starter
2. play your senior year in college
3. graduate from college
4. start 30 games
5. win 23 games
6. post a 2-1 touchdown-interception ratio
7. tally a completion rate of 60 percent or higher
The idea behind these rules is to find a durable, accurate, self-motivated passer who can make big plays while avoiding mistakes and who will finish what he starts.
Since 1999, only nine first-round-caliber quarterbacks have passed all seven of these rules (listed alphabetically): Drew Brees, Robert Griffin III, Byron Leftwich, Matt Leinart, Andrew Luck, Eli Manning, Chad Pennington, Philip Rivers and Tim Tebow. Parcells himself indicated that Teddy Bridgewater could be accepted as a 10th candidate on this list despite entering the draft as a junior, as Bridgewater had already graduated with a degree in sports administration.
That group includes two quarterbacks who have won a combined three Super Bowl rings and three Super Bowl MVP awards (Brees and Manning), a player with five playoff berths and 92 wins as a starter (Rivers), another with playoff berths in all four years he started 10 or more games (Pennington), a quarterback who is arguably among the top five in the league (Luck) and a passer coming off an offensive rookie of the year caliber season (Bridgewater). Add in the fact that Griffin, Leftwich and Tebow all led their teams to the playoffs, and it shows that this set of criteria has a very strong track record.
Mariota is like Bridgewater in that he passes six of the seven rules and gets a pass on the college senior requirement because he graduated with a 3.22 grade-point average, earning a general science degree with an emphasis in human physiology.
5. The Eagles can address their cornerback need in later rounds or via free agency
Philadelphia's most pressing personnel need is at cornerback. That positional weakness might justify the Eagles selecting a cornerback with their current No. 20 overall pick in the first round, but according to Scouts Inc., the 2015 NFL draft has six cornerbacks who rate as outstanding prospects. Five of those players are slated as potential second-round selections, so taking any of them in the first round could be construed as a reach.
The Eagles could possibly land one of those second-round players with their current second-round pick (52nd overall) or trade a later-round pick to move up if it doesn't look as if one of those players is going to fall to their second-round selection.
Philadelphia also has the option of adding a cornerback via free agency. The options here at the moment are quite strong, including Byron Maxwell, Brandon Flowers, Tramon Williams, Buster Skrine and Rashean Mathis.
Bottom line
Three years ago famed former NFL general manager Ernie Accorsi told ESPN's Colin Cowherd that there isn't a price too high to pay for a franchise quarterback, as long as the quarterback turns out to be a great one.
There is never a guarantee that a top-flight prospect will develop into a great quarterback, but Mariota's chances of doing so are very high, especially if he joins a team that runs the system he has been operating in for three seasons. A blockbuster trade could be seen as a poor idea for Philadelphia, but if it works out, it could be seen as the type of move that vaults Kelly's Eagles from playoff contender to Super Bowl contender.