Player profiles: Projecting Millsap, Dwight Howard and the Hawks

— -- Go to: Starters | Reserves

How will Paul Millsap, Dwight Howard and the Atlanta Hawks do in 2016-17?

Here are our player scouting reports and analysis.

Projected starters

Dennis Schroder
Position: Guard
Experience: 3 years
Age: 23

Scouting report
+ Score-first point guard who succeeds despite small stature
+ Needs to improve pass-or-shoot decision-making in halfcourt and transition
+ Explosive lead guard at his best attacking with the dribble
+ Doesn't force many turnovers, struggles against bigger guards

Analysis
After three seasons of caddying for and occasionally playing alongside Jeff Teague, the Hawks' starting point guard gig was handed over to Schroder when Teague was dealt to Indiana. The timing is key for Schroder, who is eligible for an extension to his rookie contract this fall. The Hawks' decision on whether to commit to the fourth-year German early isn't clear cut. He has starting-caliber talent but so far his NBA career has been marked by a mix of explosiveness and inconsistency.

Schroder's third season was a mixed bag. His league rank in WARP improved from 165th to 123rd over 2014-15, a solid if modest leap considering that his playing time was largely stagnant. Given his age (just 22 at season's end), you'd like to see a steeper ascension during this phase of his career. Schroder's arsenal became more 3-point heavy even though his accuracy (32.2 percent) remains below average. He also struggled at the basket, hitting just 51.5 percent in the restricted area, per NBA.com/stats, and he doesn't draw a ton of contact for a player who is so adept at getting into the lane.

Schroder's defensive RPM improved but is still well below average. He doesn't get many steals for a small guard and his lack of size makes it easier for bigger guards to muscle him or simply shoot over him. He's also a poor rebounder. But for all his troubles on the defensive end, the Hawks need Schroder to step up his point guard play. His turnover rate was up last season and he needs to make better and more consistent decisions when it comes to attacking or facilitating, and quick as he is, he needs to become more dynamic in the open floor.

The Hawks acquired veteran Jarrett Jack to back up Schroder, assuming he has recovered from a serious knee injury. Given Atlanta's veteran front line and the increasing prominence of jack-of-all-trades wing Kent Bazemore, it's not hard to envision a Hawks team at its best with Jack doing his combo-guard thing and Bazemore initiating the offense. So this is a big season for Schroder in every respect. He needs to show he can not only be more efficient in his own game, but he can help his teammates do the same in theirs.

Kyle Korver
Position: Guard
Experience: 13 years
Age: 36

Scouting report
+ Dangerous stand-still shooter whom opponents must track
+ Solid team defender who rarely gets exposed in isolation
+ Tremendous transition player with knack for getting open 3-pointers as a trailer

Analysis

One year after coming off his first All-Star appearance, Korver's game cratered in 2015-16. Even though he played virtually the same number of minutes as the season before, his WARP slipped from 6.8 to 0.3, and his ranking from 46th to 261st. Given that it was Korver's age-35 season, there has to be concern that he's simply reached the end of his days as a starter. But as he enters the last year of his contract, don't give up on Korver just yet.

Ankle and knee trouble limited the ability of the workaholic Korver to maintain his offseason regimen last summer and the difference showed during the season. He didn't move as well without the ball, was slower coming off screens and running the baseline, and didn't shoot as well when he did get looks. For a player to shoot 39.7 percent on a large volume of 3s to be considered as a having an "off" season, that says a lot. Two seasons ago, Korver led the NBA in catch-and-shoot points per game (8.5), according to NBA.com/stats, and put up a torrid 72.0 effective field-goal percent on those looks. Last season, his accuracy dropped 14 percent. The difference is huge: Korver's offensive RPM dropped by three points in the single-season version, and is now basically neutral in the predictive version.

Korver's defensive metrics were fine. He's a good team defender who maximizes his abilities on that end with good positioning by consistently challenging shots and slapping at the ball with quick hands. While he has never been great defending on an island, Korver rarely gets burned in isolation. SCHOENE sees him having a bounce-back season to an extent; better than 2015-16 but not back to the level of his odd, post-30 peak. The early season will be key for him. The Hawks will start over-30 players at center and power forward. If Korver falters, the Hawks might want to turn his spot over to the improving Tim Hardaway Jr., who is younger and more athletic and could grow with younger perimeter starters Dennis Schroder and Kent Bazemore.

Kent Bazemore
Position: Forward
Experience: 4 years
Age: 27

Scouting report
+ Versatile wing scorer and corner shooter
+ Efficiency has improved with better shooting
+ Terrific rebounder for size and position

Analysis
The Hawks signed Bazemore to a four-year, $70 million deal over the summer, validating the upgrades he has made to his game since arriving in the NBA as an undrafted free agent in 2012. Originally envisioned as more of a score-first, oversized lead guard, Bazemore has become an undersized wing who gets by with nearly 7-foot wingspan and improved shooting ability.

As Atlanta's primary replacement for DeMarre Carroll last season, Bazemore played a career-high 2,077 minutes, and for the first time finished with better-than-replacement WARP (2.6), putting him near the top quarter of all NBA players. Not only did Bazemore push his usage rate back above league average, but he posted a 55.2 true shooting percentage that was easily a career best.

As usual, Bazemore hit more than 40 percent on corner 3s, a major part of his game. His foul-drawing rate slipped as he became more perimeter oriented. However, in upping his free throw percentage from 60 to 81.5 percent, that part of his game was also more efficient. As was Bazemore's decision-making, illustrated by a turnover rate down 1.4 percent.

Despite his incredibly long arms and athleticism, his defensive impact is still not what it should be. His RPM on that end fell back below zero last season and the Hawks were 2.0 points per 100 possessions better with him off the floor, according to basketball-reference.com. He collects steals, blocks and scores of defensive rebounds, but needs to become more accomplished and disciplined on the ball.

Given Schroder's inexperience, Atlanta may look to Bazemore as more of a playmaker this season, so the opportunity is there for him to continue his upward climb. As the Hawks move into their next phase, one where Schroder and Howard have replaced Teague and Horford, Bazemore is going to have to continue his improvement. Given their investment in him this summer, clearly the Hawks think Bazemore can do just that.

Paul Millsap
Position: Forward
Experience: 10 years
Age: 32

Scouting report
+ Self-made All-Star who has improved and added skills throughout career
+ Versatile offensively, can score inside and out, and facilitate for others
+ Excellent help defender and elite in playing the passing lanes

Analysis
Millsap's 10th NBA season was his best yet, though it was not surprising for a player who has improved steadily since entering the league as the 47th pick of the 2006 draft. The Hawks ran more of their offense through Millsap, as his touches per 36 minutes were up six per game, per NBA.com/stats, helping his assist rate reach a career-best level. He's a good enough passer at this point that SCHOENE now lists playmaking forwards such Scottie Pippen and Chris Webber high up on his list of statistical comps.

It's hard to believe, but it wasn't so long ago that Millsap attempted about one 3-pointer every other game. Last season, he launched a career-high 232 treys. He's around league-average in accuracy, a little below that last season (31.9 percent) but he's enough of a threat to work in all sorts of lineups, even some last season that had him sliding over to small forward. He's a dynamite post player, so if you try to go small against the Hawks thinking Millsap will hover around the 3-point line, he can make you pay on the block.

Early in the summer, Millsap's name was bandied about on the rumor mill as the Hawks were trying to figure out how to keep Al Horford. When Horford left and Dwight Howard arrived, Millsap remained a fixture. But this will be a different dynamic for the Atlanta frontcourt, as the Millsap-Howard pairing doesn't offer the same inside-out flexibility as Millsap-Horford. However, the new lineup should help the Hawks get even more utility out of Millsap's elite help defense, as Howard can protect the rim, where Millsap is not at his best.

One challenge for the revamped Hawks will be to keep Millsap in positions of strength. While he is a solid face-up option, he's not at his best in catch-and-shoot situations. You want to keep him on the move, but the danger is that if Howard is running the pick-and-roll with Dennis Schroder, Millsap will be marginalized on the perimeter. If that happens, he'll need to improve his accuracy from the corners, where he hit just 19 percent a season ago.

Dwight Howard
Position: Center
Experience: 12 years
Age: 31

Scouting report
+  Elite rebounder and above-average rim protector
+ Not as mobile on either end as he used to be but finishes well
+ Offensive utility is becoming increasingly marginal, making efficiency crucial

Analysis
After three up-and-down seasons in Houston, Howard signed a three-year, $70.5 million deal with the Hawks that returns him to his hometown. Howard was born in Atlanta and starred at Southwest Atlanta Christian Academy before turning pro and becoming the top overall pick of the 2004 draft. He's not the same player he was as a prep standout, but neither is he the same franchise center who for a few years was a perennial MVP candidate.

These days, Howard is less Shaquille O'Neal and more Nate Thurmond. His offensive role in Houston kept shrinking until last season his usage rate slipped to a career-low 18.5 percent. The good news was that Howard's efficiency at the rim (70.6 percent in the restricted area, per NBA.com/stats) led to a career-best 62.5 percent mark on 2-pointers. His free throw shooting was again lackluster, dropping under break-even in 2015-16, and even after another summer of working on this chronic issue, it's silly to think it'll get better at this point.

Howard remains a much better offensive player on the move than he is when playing a traditional low-block role with his back to the basket. According to Synergy Sports Technologies, he shot 47.5 percent on post-ups and rated as average in points per play. He doesn't draw many double-teams on the block, nor is he great on pass-outs when opponents send an extra player. On the positive side, Howard remains a top pick-and-roll finisher.

Howard's defensive RPM declines with each passing season. He's still a good stationary defender and a great rebounder, but he's no longer effective if you can get him on the move. Years of back and knee trouble have robbed him of some of his once otherworldly mobility and explosiveness, though he makes up for some of the decline with brute strength. In Atlanta, Howard will help shore up weak spots in rim protection and defensive rebounding. It remains to be seen if his old-school center arsenal will fit with a team that puts a premium on versatility and ball movement.

SCHOENE is pessimistic, forecasting Howard for a career-low .505 individual winning percentage and an offensive RPM that marks him increasingly as a defense-and-rebounding specialist.

Reserves  

Thabo Sefolosha
Position: Forward
Experience: 11 years
Age: 32

Scouting report
+ Aging defensive specialist who guards both wing positions
+ Little ability to create own shot
+ Seems to have lost mid-career gains as a shooter

Analysis
Sefolosha looked more or less recovered from the broken leg he suffered late in the 2014-15 season, though more than a decade into his career, he may be nearing the end of his status as a premier 3-and-D player. As Sefolosha enters the final season of his contract, on a Hawks roster that could see its wing rotation shake out in a number of ways, this is a big season for the veteran.

Since Sefolosha's offensive arsenal primarily consists of stand-still shooting and running the floor, the Hawks like to use him in tandem with quick point guard Dennis Schroder. Now that Schroder will be the full-time point guard, that may bode well for Sefolosha. He bounced back from a couple of down seasons shooting from the corner, hitting 44 percent there last season. But he hit just 22 percent above the break and also struggled with his free throw shooting.

Whatever role Sefolosha plays on offense, his value will be determined by how effective he is on the defensive end. Last season, his defensive RPM ranked eighth among small forwards, thought that was down from third the season before. According to NBA.com/stats, Sefolosha held opponents 5 percent under their typical field-goal accuracy, ranking 15th in the league.

Malcolm Delaney
Position: Guard
Experience: Rookie
Age: 28

Scouting report
+ Skilled pass-score point guard
+ Good range and accuracy on shot off the dribble
+ Loves pull-up 3s in transition.

Analysis
After five years overseas, former Virginia Tech guard will make his NBA debut in style after signing a two-year, $5 million deal with the Haws over the summer. A prolific Euroleague scorer, Delaney profiles as a score-first lead guard with outstanding shot-making ability. According to basketball-reference.com, Delaney shot 40 percent on 3s in Europe and 86 percent from the line. He's also had a knack for getting to the foul line, a trait that extends back to his ACC days, where he led the conference in free throw attempts as a junior. SCHOENE projects him well above average in this regard based on his European translations, though on video he lacks explosion both in terms of quickness and leaping ability.

More crafty than athletic, Delaney is a bit of a ball dominator, ranking high in assists, turnovers and usage rate as a collegian. His playmaking was a little more accomplished in Europe, though his assist-to-turnover ratios skewed a little too much toward the latter. Size is an issue for Delaney on defense, where he is average playing the passing lanes and well under that in terms of rebounds and blocks. Statistically, SCHOENE sees him as similar to new Atlanta teammate Jarrett Jack, though his ability to combine ballhandling, spin moves and pulling up on a dime with range may remind some of a poor man's Baron Davis. Of course, that could be the beard-and-headband combination.

Mike Scott
Position: Forward
Experience: 4 years
Age: 28

Scouting report
+ Streaky catch-and-shoot scorer
+ Has improved shot selection over course of career
+ Showed more interest in defending in 2015-16 season

Analysis
On the court, the Hawks know what they are going to get with Scott. Because of off-court problems, Atlanta doesn't know if in the big picture, they are going to get him at all. Over the summer, Scott pleaded not guilty to a felony drug possession charge stemming from an arrest in July 2015. If convicted, he could face up to 25 years in prison and, according to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, the trial could take place this fall. Even if Scott avoids jail time, the NBA's disciplinary system could still step in. Despite the uncertainty, the Hawks guaranteed the $3.3 million final season of Scott's deal.

On the court, Scott enjoyed his best season. His defense was better, with an RPM on that end that ranked above average for the first time. According to basketball-reference.com, the Hawks were 5.3 points per 100 possessions better when Scott was on the floor in his second-unit role. Scott's offensive game improved with brevity. His usage rate fell to 17.3 percent, a 4.1 percent drop, and his responded with a career-high 57.5 true shooting percentage. A streaky catch-and-release shooter, he cut his rate of long 2s significantly and it's now a third of what it was when he entered the league. He can score inside and out, and has an underrated post game that keeps opponents from hiding a smaller defender on him.

Kris Humphries
Position: Forward
Experience: 12 years
Age: 31

Scouting report
+ Typically a high-percentage rebounder but numbers slipped last season
+ Increased 3-point shooting last season but needs to improve consistency
+ Limited defender becoming an increasing liability with age

Analysis
One thing you can say about Kris Humphries: He's not afraid to shake things up. Through his first 11 seasons, Humphries was an aggregate 2-for-26 from 3-point range, with both of his makes coming way back in his rookie season. Last season, Humphries attempted to re-invent himself as a stretch 4, launching 108 treys and hitting 31.5 percent. In the end, it was a different route to the same place. Humphries' true shooting percentage remained a subpar 51.7 and his RPM (minus-1.90) ranked 75th among power forwards.

In focusing his game more around the arc, Humphries undermined his primary strength. He has long been one of the better percentage rebounders in the league. Last season, his rebound percentages fell to career-low levels on both ends of the floor. Humphries is a below-average defender which makes it hard for him to hold down a full-time rotation role. His offensive game is inefficient for a player of average usage because his face-up shot is spotty and he's not a great finisher at the rim.

Unless he builds on his foray into 3-point shooting, chances are Humphries will struggle for playing time this season for Atlanta, with whom he signed a one-year, $4 million deal over the summer. This will be Humphries' 13th NBA season and the longer he plays in a changed league, the fewer opportunities there are for a player of his type.

Tiago Splitter
Position: Center
Experience: 6 years
Age: 32

Scouting report
+ Efficient low-post scorer
+ Solid position defender in the paint with bulk to play traditional centers
+ Offers little step-out ability as a shooter

Analysis
Splitter's first season in Atlanta was beset with injuries and poor play. He finished with a replacement-level WARP (0.0) and an RPM undermined by a severe defensive decline. Rather than serving as the traditional-center counterpoint to pair with Al Horford and/or Paul Millsap, Splitter was limited to 36 games by a bad hip that eventually needed surgery. He did not play in the postseason.

When healthy, Splitter is a post option and interior defender. He struggled to get touches with the Hawks and his usage rate was down by nearly 3 percent from his San Antonio days. His effectiveness vacillates with his ability to finish around the rim, though he can always be counted on to hit at least 52 percent or so of his 2s. Splitter is not a great rebounder for a player his size and on defense, he's more a position defender than a shot-blocker.

While late-summer reports suggest Splitter will be ready for training camp, his eventual role could be limited. He'll back up Dwight Howard and because he's a decent free throw shooter, he can used as a counterpoint to Howard in that regard, a trait diminished by the league's new restrictions on away-from-the-ball fouling. Meanwhile, the Hawks have up-and-coming energy big Walter Tavares and several frontcourt options who provide more shooting than Splitter.

Tim Hardaway Jr.
Position: Guard
Experience: 3 years
Age: 24

Scouting report
+ Streaky perimeter shooter and floor runner
+ Improved defensively but needs to keep building on that end
+ Needs to improve skills with ball in his hands

Analysis
After carving a well-deserved reputation for terrible defense for two seasons in New York, Hardaway may have seen the light in Atlanta. All evidence suggests he did: His defense RPM (minus-1.01) was middle-of-the-pack among shooting guards and a 2.38-point improvement from the season before. According to NBA.com/stats, Hardaway held opponents 7.3 percent worse than their normal shooting accuracy, placing him fourth in the league. Meanwhile, the Hawks were 1.5 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor defensively.

After struggling to earn playing time early last season, Hardaway gradually earned the confidence of coach Mike Budenholzer. However, that's a work in progress. Hardaway battled a tender groin in the postseason, shot just 27 percent and got only about 10 minutes per game. Still, the defensive improvement was a huge development for Hardaway because the shooting talent has been there all along. He played well enough that there have been whispers that he could be offered an extension to his rookie deal in the fall.

Hardaway is exclusively an off-the-ball player on the offensive end, though his quick catch-and-release game can lead to some explosive outings. Overall, he leveraged better selectivity to a career-best 56.5 true shooting percentage. He needs to add range and consistency from deep to cut down on long 2s and particularly needs to be better from the corners. Hardaway does little off the bounce or in isolation, though he is a good athlete effective when running the floor. You'd like to see him develop some sort of mid-post game to add a little variety to his arsenal.

Taurean Prince
Position: Forward
Experience: Rookie
Age: 22

Scouting report
+ Prolific perimeter shooter uses length to get good looks against wings
+ Turnover rate too high for a player who profiles to play off the ball
+ Projects as above-average defender; needs to track perimeter shooters better

Analysis
Prince was a fairly surprising pick after being taken at No. 12 in June, a pick the Hawks acquired in the three-team deal that sent point guard Jeff Teague to Indiana. Ranked No. 34 on Chad Ford's Big Board, Prince was a four-year player at Baylor with potential to be a starting-caliber NBA 3-and-D player. With good length for a wing, Prince has the versatility to guard different positions but needs to add a little bulk.

Prince was a prolific, if inconsistent, 3-point shooter in college, a skill he added as he went along. According to Synergy Sports Technologies, Prince had an effective field-goal percentage of 51.7 on catch-and-shooting looks as a senior, ranking in the 58th percentile nationally. That's just so-so for a player whose pro potential likely hinges on his ability to add range and shoot consistently as a floor spacer. His comps in SCHOENE are a mixed bag but if he can become a Robert Covington-type player, he'll turn out to be a good find for the Hawks.

DeAndre Bembry
Position: Forward
Experience: Rookie
Age: 22

Scouting report
+ Dynamic open floor playmaker with excellent passing ability
+ Good scorer around the basket with the ability to post up
+ Needs to improve outside shooting

Analysis

The Hawks landed Bembry with the No. 21 pick in June and he'll be one of two rookie first-rounders on the roster this season. He's a different player than fellow rookie Taurean Prince, though both will fight for playing time scraps on the wing. ESPN's Chad Ford wrote that other than Ben Simmons, Bembry is "the best passing non-point guard in the draft." SCHOENE sees that as Bembry's offensive strength as well.

An exceptional athlete, Bembry has strong defensive potential. He profiles as a box-score stuffer, though long-standing concerns over his perimeter shooting will have to be overcome. He shot just 31.2 percent on 3s in three seasons at Saint Joseph's and just 62.8 percent at the line. He's much more comfortable getting into the lane and creating offense for himself or finding teammates against a collapsing defense. His biggest adjustment to the NBA initially may simply be learning to watch games from the bench: Bembry averaged over 36 minutes per game in his college career.

Jarrett Jack
Position: Guard
Experience: 11 years
Age: 33

Scouting report
+ Showed better playmaking skills last season
+ Already was losing quickness when he suffered a major knee injury
+ Tweener skill set doesn't play well on defense

Analysis
It was a bad season for the veteran Jack, who was thrust into a starting role when the awful Nets jettisoned Deron Williams, played admirably over 32 starts, then blew out his knee. The 11-year veteran was already losing quickness before the injury and while he says he'll be ready for the start of the 2016-17 season, it remains to be seen how much Jack has left to give. After being mercifully waived by Brooklyn, Jack signed in Atlanta, not far from where he played his college ball at Georgia Tech, for the veteran's minimum.

A healthy Jack could put the Hawks in an agreeably awkward situation as they try to transition Dennis Schroder into their full-time starting job at point guard. On a veteran team, Jack's combo-guard skill set and ability to knock down open shots off the dribble could mean the Hawks are better with him on the floor than the learning-on-the-job Schroder. That could especially be true given the over-30 ages of some the other Atlanta starters.

Jack posted a career-best 10.3 percent assist rate last season before getting hurt, albeit with an accompanying spike in turnovers. His shooting and usage remained steady, though he continues to be a little too shoot-first for a starting point guard, even in today's game, because he's not a great 3-point shooter. He's better in an instant-offense role because of his versatility. He could really help the Hawks this season, or he could end up falling behind European import Malcolm Delaney, in some respects a younger version of Jack.

Walter Tavares
Position: Center
Experience: 1 year
Age: 24

Scouting report
+ Long, tall shot-blocking machine
+ Has improved footwork and coordination on defense
+ Holds ground well enough to rebound well and finish efficiently at basket

Analysis
This could be the season when we find out if Edy (or Walter) Tavares can make the leap from AAAA developmental player to quality NBA rotation center. Over the summer, the 7-foot-3 shot-blocking specialist looked like a guy ready to make a leap. SCHOENE projects Tavares with one of the highest block rates in the league. He's a different kind of backup center than fellow reserve Tiago Splitter, and may offer enough of a different look from starter Dwight Howard to merit more NBA time.

In the D-League last season, Tavares led the league in block percentage, defensive rating and offensive rebound percentage. He also finished second in field-goal percentage, and while he's limited to finishes off offensive rebounds and cuts, he's highly efficient at doing so. His weaknesses are typical of a player of his ilk. He has poor hands, can't shoot free throws and possesses no shooting range. But did we mention he's 7-3? This could be a make-or-break season for Tavares.

Matt Costello
Position: Forward
Experience: Rookie
Age: 23

Scouting report
+ Bulky, efficient banger around the basket
+ Good rebounder
+ Will need to improve shooting to carve out pro career

Analysis
Costello was a consummate Tom Izzo big man at Michigan State. He stayed four years and carved out an increasingly large role until he played full-time as a senior. He led the Big Ten in offensive rebounds land total rebounds last season. His ticket in the pros is as a garbage pail player, who scraps for loose balls, rebounds and sets screens. He's not an outside shooter, at least yet, and though he signed a non-guaranteed deal to go to training camp with the Hawks, Costello is likely looking at the D-League or an overseas gig to start off.

Mike Muscala
Position: Center
Experience: 3 years
Age: 25

Scouting report
+ Excellent stand-still shooter from midrange
+ Occasional 3-point range with touch to be a more consistent threat
+ Solid rim protector and shot-blocker who could improve work on the glass

Analysis
Muscala has turned into a viable NBA reserve, a big man of capable of holding up defensively in the middle with the floor-spacing chops to swing to 4 in big lineups. His 3-point shooting remains more a threat than an actuality, but his high-level midrange shooting makes him a capable pick-and-pop option. With just a little more range, he could carve out a long career as a stretch 5. His RPM last season ranked a respectable 31st among centers, with most of his plus-0.82 mark coming on the defensive end. He's not a great rebounder but he consistently blocks over 3 percent of opposing 2s.

The immediate problem for Muscala is that he has a non-guaranteed contract on a team with 16 players that have deals entering camp. He may be insurance for a possible legal-related Mike Scott departure, or a lingering Tiago Splitter hip problem. Either way, he's good enough to force Mike Budenholzer into a tough roster decision. Muscala will have an NBA job this season. We'll have to wait to see if it's in Atlanta.