What playoff committee is facing

— -- There are only three Tuesday rankings remaining before the 12 members of the College Football Playoff selection committee release the one top 25 that matters on Dec. 7.

That's it. Just three.

Three more weeks to debate, to build résumés, to politick -- or to fall out of the conversation entirely. As we hit the heart of November, a stretch that will make or break playoff hopes across the country, here's a look at what the committee is facing over the next three weeks and a best guess as to what might happen in December:

Three issues facing the committee

• How to measure the decreasing value of wins: A win over four-loss  LSU, which has dropped out of the Associated Press Top 25, no longer looks impressive, but it's unreasonable to think that every team can finish with one or even two losses. There are two halves to every season, and the committee has to consider the downward trends teams' opponents have taken. It's possible that when the committee reveals its next ranking, undefeated  Florida State will have no wins against ranked opponents. What does that say about  Notre Dame,  Clemson  and Florida State? With the exception of  Mississippi State, all of Alabama's wins have come against teams with at least four losses. How will the committee value those wins now?

• How heavily will conference championships be weighed? The committee members have stated that while conference titles are a factor, they're not the only factor. They're looking for the four best teams -- which might not necessarily mean four conference champs. But if  Ohio State runs the table and thumps a highly ranked  Wisconsin team in the Big Ten championship, would its résumé supersede that of a  Baylor or  TCU that didn't have a title game to play in? Would it be enough to knock out an 11-1 Mississippi State team that didn't win the SEC? It's easy to get caught up in the moment of championship Saturday, but it's on the committee to evaluate the entire season.

• Inconsistency: When considering the head-to-head result between TCU and Baylor, committee chair Jeff Long noted Baylor's loss to  West Virginia as one of the reasons TCU was ranked ahead of the Bears in spite of the head-to-head loss. Under that reasoning, consider this: Mississippi State's only loss was to  Alabama. Alabama's loss was to  Ole Miss. Doesn't Mississippi State have the "better loss?" Would the committee ignore the head-to-head in that similar scenario? Long has also said the group considered the injuries to  Oregon's offensive line in the Ducks' home loss to  Arizona, but will they forgive Ohio State's Week 2 home loss to  Virginia Tech? It's was quarterback  J.T. Barrett's first home game as the starter replacing injured Heisman hopeful  Braxton Miller.

Three biggest storylines

• Egg Bowl and Iron Bowl: If Mississippi State can beat Ole Miss and finish 11-1, and Alabama can get past Auburn and then win the SEC title game, the committee is going to have to give serious consideration to two SEC teams in the inaugural College Football Playoff. The SEC champ will be in -- if it comes from the West Division -- but would the committee snub an 11-1 SEC West runner-up?

• Big finish in the Big 12: CFP executive director Bill Hancock has said the conferences will inform the committee who their champions are, and if there are co-champs (a possibility with TCU and Baylor in the Big 12), "the committee will take that into consideration." At that point, it would be hard to continue to ignore the head-to-head result because their résumés would be so similar. TCU still has to play at  Texas on Thanksgiving and home against  Iowa State. Baylor has three home games against  Oklahoma State,  Texas Tech and  Kansas State.

• #Pac12AfterDark: The hashtag is gaining speed, and deservedly so, because when it's lights out on the East Coast, things get crazy in the unpredictable Pac-12 South. Five teams are still mathematically in contention to win the division, but the simplest scenario is that  UCLA wins out. The scary scenario for the Pac-12 would be a two-loss South team upsetting Oregon in the conference championship game. A two-loss Pac-12 champ might not be too appealing to the selection committee.

Three predictions

• The top four: On Dec. 7, the committee's final four will be (1) Alabama, (2) Oregon, (3) Ohio State, (4) Florida State. The undefeated Seminoles will be a no-brainer. So will the SEC and Pac-12 champs, as long as the latter is the Ducks. Ohio State will get the edge over both Baylor and TCU because of the way it performs in its title game.

• Thunderstruck: Undefeated  Marshall will enter the committee's top 25 this week and stay there, representing the Group of 5 in a New Year's Six bowl. LSU, Clemson, Notre Dame and  Minnesota should no longer be ranked by the committee, making plenty of room for the Herd this week. They got a convincing win over  Rice, a six-win team and the most difficult opponent remaining on their schedule. It's now or never for Marshall.

• Unhappy New Year:  Auburn, which was No. 9 heading into this week, and Clemson will both fall out of consideration for a New Year's Six bowl. Auburn now has three losses, including its recent 34-7 loss at  Georgia. Once projected for the Peach Bowl, the Tigers should fall out of the big picture. Clemson should be replaced by  Georgia Tech as the ACC's next highest-ranked team behind Florida State, losing its spot in the Orange Bowl, which has a contract with the ACC.