Playoff Forecast: Oregon's opening
— -- Each week throughout the season, the Playoff Forecast will use ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) and human logic (i.e., the eye test) to determine which teams are best positioned for spots in the inaugural College Football Playoff. These rankings take into account perceived team strength (including injuries) and remaining schedule difficulty, including prospective conference championship games.
The Playoff Forecast is not intended to be a prediction of the selection committee's weekly Top 25, which will be released every week starting Tuesday. It is a projection of which teams have the best chance to be in the top four come December.
1. Florida State Seminoles
FPI's chance of winning out: 28.7 percent
FPI's chance of winning the conference: 73.5 percent
The Noles have long had the best chance to go undefeated of all the Power 5 conference teams, but here's the point where it gets serious. The FPI gives Miami the best chance to upset FSU (on Nov. 15), but if you believe that the formula for beating the Seminoles is a stout defense and a difference-making crowd, then this Thursday's game at Louisville could be all that realistically stands between Florida State and a spot in the playoff. Either way, the amount of resistance on FSU's path to an unbeaten regular season is far less than what fellow unbeaten Mississippi State faces.
2. Oregon Ducks
FPI's chance of winning out: 24.8 percent
FPI's chance of winning the conference: 60.4 percent
While the defense has been leaky, Oregon seems to have repaired the holes on its offensive line and is back to its usual scoring pace. The Ducks might not be dominating like they did in recent seasons, but Stanford doesn't look capable of beating them for a third year in a row, so the trip to Utah could be the toughest test left, including the Pac-12 championship game. And Oregon would seem to be a playoff lock if it can run the table.
3. Georgia Bulldogs
FPI's chance of winning out: 14.5 percent
FPI's chance of winning the conference: 43.0 percent
This choice might catch people off guard, but I believe the Dawgs control their playoff destiny, and all things considered, they don't have as difficult a remaining schedule as many other contenders. The stiffest tests would be Auburn (in Athens) and the SEC West champ (in Atlanta). With both of those games in Georgia, if the Bulldogs play the way they did in their last two games, they're certainly capable of winning those.
4. Mississippi State Bulldogs
FPI's chance of winning out: 4.5 percent
FPI's chance of winning the conference: 19.0 percent
The odds of the Bulldogs winning out are long, but they might be able to lose once and still finish in the selection committee's top four. Even so, with remaining trips to Tuscaloosa and Oxford plus a potential SEC title game, it'll take quite an effort for Mississippi State to avoid losing twice. Whatever happens, it'll be a November to remember.
5. Alabama Crimson Tide
FPI's chance of winning out: 17 percent
FPI's chance of winning the conference: 13.5 percent
Like Georgia, Alabama has a home game against Auburn and a possible SEC title game left on the schedule. Unlike UGA, the Tide still have a dangerous road game (at LSU) and also face the current No. 1 team in the polls (Mississippi State). But the way Bama has played at home, its playoff odds will improve dramatically if it can manage to escape Baton Rouge with a win on Nov. 8.
6. Michigan State Spartans
FPI's chance of winning out: 13.4 percent
FPI's chance of winning the conference: 27 percent
The Spartans keep winning impressively, but their playoff hopes don't seem to have changed much in the last month. They won't finish ahead of an undefeated Florida State, and they almost certainly won't finish ahead of either the SEC champion or a one-loss Oregon (due to a head-to-head loss). Therefore, Michigan State needs to keep winning and hope the Big 12 and SEC West teams continue to beat up each other. Sparty might not need all of that help, but it's very difficult to guess exactly what the selection committee will make of this team.
7. TCU Horned Frogs
FPI's chance of winning out: 29.4 percent
FPI's chance of winning the conference: 31.4 percent
The toughest game left on TCU's schedule, according to the FPI, is this weekend's trip to West Virginia (the FPI gives TCU a 61 percent chance to win). After that, the Horned Frogs host Kansas State and close with Kansas, Texas and Iowa State. In other words, surviving these next two weeks could ultimately be the key to whether TCU is on the selection committee's short list in early December.
8. Ole Miss Rebels
FPI's chance of winning out: 12.7 percent
FPI's chance of winning the conference: 18 percent
Although the confidence level in Ole Miss has dropped because of the offensive performance at LSU, it must be remembered that the Rebels' only remaining road trip is to Arkansas, which means they still have a good chance to win the SEC West. And with Auburn and Mississippi State both visiting Oxford, Ole Miss is favored by the FPI in all of its remaining games. Just something to consider before you write off the Rebels.
9. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
FPI's chance of winning out: 12.2 percent
FPI's chance of winning the conference: N/A
The Irish have arguably the best loss in college football this season (at Florida State), but they need a quality win or two to go with it. For that reason, it would be huge for ND if Stanford could upset Oregon this week, or if Arizona State could remain a one-loss team until the Irish travel to meet ASU on Nov. 8. Having Louisville beat Florida State on Thursday would be a bonus, because it would give Notre Dame a chance for a respectable victory when it faces Louisville the Saturday before Thanksgiving.
10. Auburn Tigers
FPI's chance of winning out: 5.2 percent
FPI's chance of winning the conference: 4.4 percent
With road games at Ole Miss, Georgia and Alabama -- and probably zero margin for error -- Auburn is only appearing on this list because it's one of the few teams in the nation that's capable of winning all three of those games. Doing so might lock up a playoff berth, even if Mississippi State goes on to win the SEC West.
Missed the cut
Like Auburn, Kansas State has three brutal away games in the next six weeks (at TCU, West Virginia and Baylor), which could vault the Wildcats into the playoff if they defied the odds and ran the table. Not sure whether that's a better position than one-loss Baylor, which is given a 20 percent chance to win out by FPI but has a pitiful nonconference schedule.
Ohio State took another hit on Saturday night by adding an ugly overtime win against Penn State to a résumé that already included a home loss to Virginia Tech. The Buckeyes still have a chance to win the Big Ten with a 12-1 record, but there wouldn't be much on their profile for the selection committee to get excited about. They should root for more chaos in other conferences.
And then there's the Pac-12 South, where this weekend's Utah-Arizona State winner will soon have to be taken seriously as a playoff contender, along with Arizona. Arizona State is in especially good position to gain traction with that Notre Dame game still left on the schedule, as well.