QB Confidence Index: Post-draft ranking of all 32 depth charts
— -- How confident are you in your team's quarterback situation?
Wait. Before you answer that, let's get a couple of things straight.
Although this is the time of year for unbridled NFL optimism -- post-draft, pre-minicamp, very few injuries so far -- it's important not to confuse optimism with confidence. If you are, say, a Bears fan, you can talk yourself into feeling very good about a situation that involves Mike Glennon's latest shot to be a starter combined with the future of Mitchell Trubisky. But that's a hopeful feeling. Confidence has to wait for some evidence -- real confidence does, at least.
Also, note the phrase above: "quarterback situation." That means that although you might like your team's starter better than some other teams' starters, to answer our question, you must ask a few more questions. How confident are you that your starter can play all 16 games? How much longer can he play? How good do you feel about the backup if he has to play?
These are the factors that go into our occasional feature called the "QB Confidence Index." Here, we examine each of the 32 NFL teams' quarterback pictures, throw them into tiers and rank them based on how confident each team is right now. This list changes throughout the year, and again, it's intended as something more than just a ranking of starting quarterbacks. Keep that in mind before you get mad about where your guy is sitting.
Let's start with the top tier:
COMPLETELY CONFIDENT
1. New England Patriots
2. Green Bay Packers
Rodgers hasn't missed a game since 2013, which means backup Brett Hundley hasn't seen any real action. But Hundley's preseason work -- combined with the high regard the rest of the teams around the league have for the Packers' coaching staff's work with quarterbacks -- makes him a respected backup and possible 2018 offseason trade target.
3. Atlanta Falcons
4. Detroit Lions
Matthew Stafford hasn't missed a game since 2010. Although he doesn't chuck it as much as he used to, people around the Lions rave about the way he and offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter have connected. Stafford is enjoying his role at the helm of Cooter's offense, which relies more on shorter, quicker throws than the offenses Stafford used to operate. It would be a big drop-off to backup Jake Rudock, but sixth-round pick Brad Kaaya offers interesting possibilities if he can develop quickly into the No. 2.
CONFIDENT ... FOR NOW
5. Pittsburgh Steelers
Landry Jones is what he is as a backup -- a guy you hope doesn't have to play more than a game or two. Fourth-round pick Joshua Dobbs is an intriguing long-term prospect. If you're going to have a young quarterback in a position where he needs to spend some time learning, it's nice to have as qualified a student as Dobbs. The Steelers like their quarterback situation, but it comes with enough questions to keep it in the second tier.
6. New Orleans Saints
Surprisingly, the Saints did not draft a quarterback this year, though they did bring in Chase Daniel as a free-agent backup option they like a lot. Former third-round pick? Garrett Grayson remains as a potential developmental prospect.
7. Los Angeles Chargers
8. New York Giants
One member of the coaching staff said third-round pick Davis Webb "has a ways to go to be the No. 2," which means that the Giants likely will carry three quarterbacks and either Josh Johnson or Geno Smith sticks as the backup. Again, though, Manning's backup exists to run the scout team.
CONFIDENCE IS A TWO-WAY STREET
9. Indianapolis Colts
New general manager Chris Ballard seems to understand the roster's deficiencies and is at work trying to keep Luck upright and productive as he reaches his prime. But Luck has dealt with injury issues the past couple of seasons, and the backup options right now are Scott Tolzien, Stephen Morris and undrafted rookie Philip Walker. Confidence here would get a boost from an encouraging season by the offensive line.
10. Seattle Seahawks
11. Carolina Panthers
Carolina's backup situation is better than those of the other teams in this tier, given that? Derek Anderson seems to know how to keep the ship afloat when Newton can't play. But the Panthers sit behind Indy and Seattle in our rankings because the health concerns with Luck and Wilson are projected, while Newton's are current.
CONFIDENCE ASCENDING?
12. Oakland Raiders
The Raiders added EJ Manuel and bring back Connor Cook to back up Carr, but the hope is that he continues to ascend and move into higher tiers.
13. Washington
Sources say there have been discussions about a long-term deal, and the team is interested up to a certain salary level. But due to the deadline and the lack of clarity in the Washington front office following the early March firing of general manager Scot McCloughan, there isn't a lot of optimism from either side that something will get done in the next two months.
This is what keeps Washington in this part of the rankings. If it were truly confident about its situation, Cousins would have his long-term deal already. Instead, Washington?backs him up with Colt McCoy and Nate Sudfeld and risks the possibility of starting from scratch in 2018.
CONFIDENCE DECLINING?
14. Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals didn't draft a quarterback, but they added Blaine Gabbert and undrafted rookie Trevor Knight to a backup corps that already included Drew Stanton and Zac Dysert. The only other teams with five quarterbacks right now are the Vikings (if you count injured Teddy Bridgewater) and the Bills (we'll get to them in a second).
If Palmer is healthy and throwing it the way he was in 2015, the Cardinals are as confident as anyone. But there isn't a real solid feel to the quarterback situation in the desert right now.
15. Kansas City Chiefs
Smith is fine for what the Chiefs are doing right now, and it appears that they believe they can win with him. But in today's AFC West, winning isn't easy. At some point, the Chiefs are going to look to Mahomes to elevate their ceiling at the most important position.
HOLDING STEADY
16. Cincinnati Bengals
Backup AJ McCarron has some experience and is valuable enough that the Bengals turned down trade offers this offseason. This is one place where the Bengals have no worries.
17. Minnesota Vikings
They still don't know what to expect health-wise in the long term from Teddy Bridgewater, but in the meantime, Case Keenum is there as a veteran backup in case something happens to Bradford. The team is also high on Taylor Heinicke, a 2015 undrafted free agent who struggled with his own health issues last season.
18. Baltimore Ravens
LET'S SEE SOME MORE
19. Dallas Cowboys
Cowboys coaches are working in the film room with Prescott, studying the second games he played against division opponents for clues on how teams will attack him with a year's worth of NFL tape to study. Complacency is among Prescott's biggest enemies, and it's encouraging that he doesn't seem the type to cave to it. Kellen Moore is a backup whom offensive coordinator Scott Linehan likes, but Moore hasn't played enough to inspire any confidence.
20. Tennessee Titans
There's some concern about health, as he was unable to finish either of his first two seasons, but at age 23, he seems to be coming along at least as well as the Titans could have hoped. Backup Matt Cassel surely could do fine handing the ball off to DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry, if need be.
21. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The interceptions remain a concern, as only Philip Rivers and Blake Bortles have thrown more than the 33 Winston has thrown since the start of 2015. And there's almost nothing behind him, as the backup right now is either Sean Renfree or Ryan Griffin. Winston is the Bucs' guy, and they'd love for him to justify and keep building up the confidence they have in him.
22. Buffalo Bills
Taylor is clearly a better player than a lot of people want to believe he is, yet he hasn't risen to the point where he inspires any level of confidence that he's a franchise guy. Add an all-new coaching staff and front office in Buffalo, and the team itself probably doesn't yet know how it's supposed to feel about its quarterback situation.
New general manager Brandon Beane wasn't exactly blowing kisses to Taylor in his introductory news conference, and though Taylor is surely the starter right now, it isn't difficult to imagine them trying out Cardale Jones, T.J. Yates or even fifth-round rookie Nathan Peterman if Taylor isn't doing what they want him to do.
23. Philadelphia Eagles
But this gets back to what we said at the beginning about optimism versus confidence. Wentz offers a ton of the former but has a ways to go before he offers reason for the latter. Old friend Nick Foles returns as the backup, and Matt McGloin is there as well.
WATCH YOUR BACK
24. Miami Dolphins
Although Tannehill is technically signed through 2020, the only remaining guarantee after this season is an injury-only guaranteed $5.525 million of his $17.475 million 2018 salary. The Dolphins can escape the Tannehill contract next offseason. He set a new career high in completion percentage (67.1) in his first season under coach Adam Gase, but he has yet to elevate his game to a point that justifies a $20 million-per-year cap charge.
The Dolphins didn't draft Tannehill's eventual replacement, but that doesn't mean they're 100 percent confident with what they have for the long term.
25. Denver Broncos
26. Jacksonville Jaguars
They picked up Bortles' 2018 contract option, but until next March, that is guaranteed only against injury, which means they can cut Bortles loose next spring if they don't feel that he is worth $19 million in 2018. It's a prove-it year for Bortles in Jacksonville, and the organization is looking for reasons to feel confident.
27. Houston Texans
People who have worked with Watson believe he'll win over the locker room and the coaching staff sooner rather than later, and of the rookie quarterbacks, he's the one most likely to start a significant chunk of 2017 games. Savage can hold him off if he plays well, but Houston coach Bill O'Brien changes quarterbacks all the time, and it's entirely possible that he goes back and forth between those two (with maybe a little Brandon Weeden thrown in) a few times this season.
28. Chicago Bears
Mark Sanchez and Connor Shaw are even there to compete for the Chase Daniel role. Assuming the current depth chart holds, one Bears source said "Mike would have to really mess up" to lose the job to Trubisky this year. All bets are off in 2018, when the remaining guarantee on Glennon's deal drops to $2.5 million. How confident will the Bears be in Trubisky -- and in Glennon -- when it's time to make next year's plan?
NO EARTHLY IDEA
29. Los Angeles Rams
As such, the story of the season (and the Rams' seasons to come) will be how McVay and his staff mesh with Goff and manage the early part of his career. It remains to be seen how confident either side of that equation should or will be with the other.
30. San Francisco 49ers
First-time head coach Shanahan and first-time GM John Lynch got six-year deals, and they won't be in any real trouble until at least 2019. Their ultimate quarterback answer could be playing high school football right now.
31. Cleveland Browns
Osweiler's still there, and at this point, he could end up starting for the Browns. So could Cody Kessler, who is the current favorite of the coaching staff's, or? Kevin Hogan, who was in the mix last year. The Browns? did draft former Notre Dame QB? DeShone Kizer in the second round, though everyone seems to agree that he needs time before he'll be ready.
This looks like another mess of musical quarterback chairs, but at least in Osweiler the Browns have someone who has won high-level games and in Kizer they have someone they can reasonably groom as a high-end future prospect. So ... trending upward?
