Five reasons the sharps are smart
When I do the NFL line moves columns on Friday ( here's the one from last week), I inevitably get an insight into games that I wouldn't have been thinking about otherwise. Sometimes it's an old betting axiom -- like wise guys fading West Coast teams traveling east for 1 p.m. starts -- and other times, it's just hearing sharps talk about these teams. Even though I write about gambling every day, my default thought process is who will win and who will lose, not necessarily who will cover and why. That's why I call handicappers -- and tell you what they tell me. As I've often said, think of it as a bet-for-a-life philosophy rather than a bet-for-the-day philosophy.
This past week was especially interesting. Tim Trushel, who is at the top of the charts in the Hilton Super Contest, made these points about the weekend games:
1. The San Francisco 49ers will suffer from the west-to-east travel (he was right).
2. The Chicago Bears will not show up; the Baltimore Ravens will get more confident and give Joe Flacco more freedom as the game wears on (he was right).
3. The Pittsburgh Steelers, playing for their life, will give their best effort against the Green Bay Packers and not be the same team that's been in a free fall the past five weeks (he was right).
4. When the line was moving against the Oakland Raiders, Trushel said Oakland has given good effort all year and has been great against double-digit spreads (he was right).
5. When the line moved against the Carolina Panthers, he said, "I don't know that I agree with it -- that's a lot of points for a home team" (he was right).
I'm not saying he's a genius and that these guys always get it right. But the value in what he offers -- from betting strategy to pop psychology to understanding what teams are doing in different situations and how to find value -- is, well, money. If only I always followed the advice.
We're now entering a dead zone for Vegas; not a lot of families spending their Christmas season hanging around the sports books. So, all along The Strip yesterday, biz was a little bit slower than usual.
I can remember years ago, when I was reporting "The Odds," I was hanging in the Stardust sports book on Christmas Day. On Sundays, this place was always packed, with cute waitresses in bad outfits walking around selling cigarettes and gum and lighted souvenirs, which to this day I don't get. There was a constant tension that made it feel alive. It also filled the space with life so you didn't notice the dingy carpet or battered seats or ashtrays that needed to be emptied and the smell of stale, hot pretzels. But on Christmas, it may have been the saddest place in the world. It was so empty you noticed all those things and wondered why you were there watching a meaningless bowl game you bet two bits on instead of with someone that mattered, other than the snappily dressed ticket writers behind the counter. (Well, I'm sure someone thought that. I had an excuse.)
Not to be a downer. My point is that, over the next couple of weekends, if you see line moves happening from Vegas during the weekend, you can almost guarantee it will be sharps making the plays. All the squares will be home. And, if they're smart, they'll follow what the wise guys are doing.
They know what they're talking about.