When it comes to Rory McIlroy, look beyond Riviera

— -- When he was in his professional prime, Tiger Woods never offered the possibility of any shortcomings in his performance or his health. When asked about his game, he'd often insist: "I'm close." When asked about any injuries, he'd often say: "I'm good."

If he was honest with himself, he might look back and wish he'd been a little more open. The main takeaway from any of these interview sessions was always that Tiger was in peak form -- and as we all knew, Tiger in peak form was better than everyone else. Way better.

But the unintended by-product of these comments was that he raised expectations for himself to the level that anything less than a dominant victory was a huge letdown. He raised the bar so high that it became continuously more difficult to clear it.

I get it, though.

Golf is as much mental pursuit as physical contest. It's a game in which confidence can be the intangible difference between winning and losing. And so, Tiger never wanted to allow that he was anything less than 100 percent, because that would be an admission that his confidence was somewhere below 100 percent, as well.

I'm convinced that many of today's stars took note of Tiger's consistent insistence that he was in peak form and -- consciously or subconsciously -- they picked up on that practice.

Many of these players -- especially those 20-somethings in the current top-five -- are often honest to a fault. They'll admit when they don't like a golf course or a certain shot bothers them.

It's very rare, though, that even these Honest Abe's will admit their inadequacies. It's that whole confidence thing all over again.

After the final round of the Northern Trust Open this past Sunday, I spoke with Rory McIlroy. He was just minutes removed from a round that saw him open with eagle to grab a share of the lead, only to post seven bogeys in a 4-over 75 and finish in a share of 20th place.

Obviously, he didn't have his best stuff. And to his credit, he admitted that.

When I asked about his expectations for this week's Honda Classic, though, he insisted that tee to green his swing feels very comfortable now, and even though he enjoyed playing Riviera, he's excited to get back to some more familiar Bermuda greens.

Now, I'm not suggesting that any of what he told me is untrue. McIlroy is perhaps the most honest of these honest young players and I trust him on his word.

But it all got me to thinking about players' assessments of their own games -- and as it relates to this column, how it can impact your DFS lineups.

Think about it: How many times have you scoured the Internet for comments from a golfer, read about him sounding confident entering that week, picked him in DFS and wound up being let down?

The truth is, you'll rarely -- if ever -- hear a player admit he's anything less than 100 percent healthy/excited/prepared for an upcoming event. You'll almost never hear a guy say something to the effect of, "Well, my game's a mess right now and my knees are killing me, but I'm looking forward to going out there for two days and trying to break 80."

There's a trick to parsing through the usual rhetoric. If a player reveals he's still working on his swing Tuesday afternoon, that's probably not a great sign. If he divulges that it's not his favorite track, but he'll try to enjoy it more this week, that's a red flag, too.

Moral of the story? Be cautious piecing together your lineup based solely on players' self-assessments of their own games. They're not exactly their own harshest critics.

With that in mind, let's get to picks for this week's Honda Classic ...

Big draws (Over $8,500)

Brooks Koepka ($10,500). Three finishes of eighth or better in his past four starts and now he gets to head back to Florida, where he plays even better? I like him so much that I'm picking him to win this week.

Kevin Kisner ($9,900). It was a pretty uneventful West Coast Swing for Kiz, who produced a pair of top-10s in Hawaii, then only played two more rounds, missing the cut in Phoenix. He knows where his bread is buttered, though -- on Bermuda grass in the Southeast.

Big fades (Over $8,500)

Jimmy Walker ($9,000). Unlike Koepka and Kisner, he plays his best golf on the West Coast. I'd keep him off the roster until he proves otherwise.

Medium draws ($7,000-$8,500)

Justin Thomas ($8,100). The results haven't quite been there lately, but like a stockbroker picking out a stock, this is your chance to buy low on a guy who should be low-owned.

Charles Howell III ($7,500). If it ain't broke, don't fix it. At the very least, you're guaranteed four rounds at a good value; at best, you're getting a guy who can contend.

Medium fades ($7,000-$8,500)

Jason Kokrak ($7,800). I struggled with this one. He's a streaky player and after last week's T-2 finish, he could be starting to get on a roll. But at this price, he's going to be a popular pick this week. I'd rather take some lower-owned guys with similar value.

Slight draws (Under $7,000)

Anirban Lahiri ($6,900). The dude with the world's strangest schedule was planning to play the Monday qualifier before he got into the field as an alternate. This comes despite already being in next week's field at Doral. Could be ripe for a top-10 this week.

William McGirt ($6,800). If you like patterns, then you won't like McGirt, who has finished 20th-MC-24th-MC-13th in his past five starts. Look for that trend to break this week, as he'll see another weekend.

Adam Hadwin ($6,800). Something clicked Sunday, when he posted a 5-under 66 at Riviera for his second-straight finish of 17th or better. (Bonus pick: Patton Kizzire has some nice value this week, too.)

Slight fades (Under $7,000)

Morgan Hoffmann ($6,100). One DFS player gloated to me before last week's event about taking Hoffmann. I think I audibly sighed. A final-round 75 probably didn't help his lineup.