Roster Reload: Warriors will need more room in the trophy case
— -- As teams complete their seasons, ESPN Insider's NBA team will take a look at the offseason picture and priorities for all 30 teams. Below, Kevin Pelton offers a snapshot of the Golden State Warriors.
2014-15 record: 67-15
Pythagorean record: 64-18
Offensive Rating: 109.7 (2nd)
Defensive Rating: 98.2 (1st)
Draft picks
Own first-round pick (30th)
Projected cap space
Maximum: $0
Minimum: $0
Likely: $0
What's returning
Of the eight players who played the most minutes for the Warriors during the regular season, seven are under contract, including four of the five starters. Golden State's embarrassment of riches starts in the backcourt, where MVP Stephen Curry and All-Star Klay Thompson have established themselves as the league's best pairing. Curry has two years left on the bargain extension he signed before breaking through as a star, and Thompson is starting a four-year extension he signed last summer.
Up front, starters Harrison Barnes and Andrew Bogut both return. Barnes is eligible for a rookie extension, though valuing his production could be tricky with the salary cap set to rise. Despite his disappearance from the rotation during the NBA Finals, Bogut (an All-Defensive Second Team pick) earned every penny and more of the first season of a three-year, $36 million contract extension by staying healthy.
Former All-Star -- and now Finals MVP -- Andre Iguodala moved into a reserve role last season. In fact, with zero regular-season starts, Iguodala is the first non-starting player to earn the honor. Iguodala remained an important part of the rotation and was perhaps the team's most consistent performer at both ends during the Finals. Another former All-Star, David Lee, took a back seat with the emergence of younger players. He could find himself elsewhere for the final season of his contract.
Veteran guard Shaun Livingston provided size and versatility off the bench, making him an ideal fit for Steve Kerr's system. Center Festus Ezeli, heading into the last year of his rookie deal, made important strides as a rim protector and finisher on offense.
Free agents
The most important Warriors free agent by far is starting power forward Draymond Green. Green will be restricted after playing for the minimum salary in 2014-15, the last season of the contract he signed as a second-round pick. Given his value at both ends of the court (Green finished as the runner-up in Defensive Player of the Year voting), we're long past the point where both Green earning a max contract and Golden State giving it to him -- either by matching an offer sheet from another team or signing Green outright -- are both fait accompli. He has earned it, especially in the context of the growing cap.
The Warriors hold an affordable $3.8 million team option on backup big man Marreese Speights, who enjoyed a career year in Kerr's system, though a looming luxury-tax bill might make him expendable. Brandon Rush will surely exercise a $1.3 million player option after playing sparingly. And Leandro Barbosa could return as an unrestricted free agent after filling out Golden State's backcourt rotation.
Biggest need: Room in the trophy case
In basketball terms, it's hard to find a weakness for the 2014-15 Warriors, who finished first in defensive rating and second in offensive rating. They could stand to get to the free throw line a little more often, and some youth and more shooting on the perimeter in the second unit might be useful, but those are "wants" more than "needs."
The biggest loss for Golden State could be on the coaching staff, since veteran lead assistant Alvin Gentry is off to coach the New Orleans Pelicans. Gentry had heavy influence on the Warriors' offense (with fellow assistant Ron Adams focusing primarily on the defensive end), and there's no experienced assistant on the bench to step into that role. Look for Golden State to replace Gentry from outside the organization.
Biggest question: How much luxury tax are the Warriors willing to pay?
Maxing out Green and bringing back Speights would push Golden State's payroll slightly north of $100 million, putting the team far beyond the projected $81.6 million luxury-tax threshold. If the Warriors actually kept that much salary, they'd pay an additional $40 million in tax under the NBA's progressive system. Per Mark Deeks, just three teams have ever paid such a large tax bill: the 2002-03 Portland Trail Blazers ($52.0 million), 2006-07 New York Knicks ($45.1 million) and 2013-14 Brooklyn Nets ($90.6 million). And Golden State has yet to pay the tax in its history.
Because the cap is going up, the Warriors are likely to spend just one season in the tax, making it worth swallowing to keep a championship roster together. However, Golden State could shave its bill fairly painlessly by sending the expiring $15.5 million salary for Lee to a team under the cap (or with a sufficiently large trade exception). Moving Lee and replacing him with a minimum-salary player would leave the Warriors paying a relatively modest $6.5 million tax bill, giving the Warriors incentive to use future draft picks to offload Lee's salary.
Ideal offseason
The Knicks strike out on their targets in free agency and decide to keep their payroll clean for another run in the summer of 2016. As a result, they're amenable to bringing Lee back to Madison Square Garden at the price of two future second-round picks. The Warriors re-sign Green, exercise Speights' team option and add a project to their frontcourt by drafting UNLV forward Christian Wood with the 30th overall pick, bringing back a similar cast to try to defend their first title in 40 years.