Separating NFL's contenders and pretenders
— -- Nearly half the NFL awoke Monday with winning records as Week 6 neared its end. Ten teams are 4-2 or better, although a couple -- Pittsburgh and Oakland, for sure -- played more like the Cleveland Browns than like teams with real aspirations.
Separating contenders from pretenders is easy at the top, but a dozen teams will wind up earning postseason spots, with probably half of them having legitimate shots at reaching the Super Bowl. Which ones are the real deals? A run through all teams with winning records and a few other notables provides some clarity.
True contenders can trust their defenses. They have quarterbacks who protect the football and can flourish in two-minute situations. They have track records for improving late in the season, and they ideally can win games even when their preferred formula becomes unavailable to them.
CONTENDERS
Cream of the crop
New England Patriots (5-1): The Patriots check all the boxes. Tom Brady's 782 yards and six touchdowns in his first two games back from suspension have rightfully grabbed headlines, but the Patriots are also giving up only 15.2 points per game this season, tied for their third-best mark through six games in the Brady era. That's remarkable for a team that unloaded top pass-rusher Chandler Jones in the offseason.
Seattle Seahawks (5-1): Seattle comes in a notch below the Patriots because New England is so much better at winning high-scoring games. New England is 14-11 since 2012 when opponents exceed 24 points. No other team has won even 33 percent of those games. Seattle is 1-13 in them, which ranks 31st in the league, ahead of only Buffalo (0-21). The Seahawks are so consistently good on defense that they won't have to win too many games outside their comfort zone, provided? Michael Bennett's knee injury is actually "nothing major," as he said after the game. Seattle cannot afford to lose its best defensive lineman.
A notch or two below
Minnesota Vikings (5-0): The Vikings will ascend into the top group once Sam Bradford proves he can rally Minnesota without his defense dominating. Wilson has done that on occasion for Seattle despite the Seahawks' poor record in high-scoring games. Bradford has done a great job managing games for a team that is plus-10 in turnover margin and has given up 12.6 points per game. The Vikings have yet to allow more than 16 points in a game. Every QB wins those games ( Ryan Tannehill and Ryan Fitzpatrick are a combined 48-3-1 in them).
Atlanta Falcons (4-2): Alex Mack's addition ranked No. 1 on my list of free-agent signings this offseason, but not even the Falcons could have expected this much improvement up front. There are still questions about the defense, of course, but Atlanta can control games with a balanced offense, and Matt Ryan is good enough to win his share of the close ones. The Falcons have played good teams tough since Dan Quinn became head coach. They were 3-2 against winning teams last season, and even a 28-26 defeat at Seattle on Sunday left them 2-1 this season against teams that are currently above .500.
Dallas Cowboys (5-1): Pass-rushing talent subtractions made the Cowboys appear doomed on defense before the season. Removing players with off-field issues might have cleared the way for coordinator Rod Marinelli to deliver on his reputation as a defensive talent maximizer. Fans will debate whether Dak Prescott or Tony Romo should start at quarterback once Romo is healthy, but the Cowboys know they can win with either. All they have to do is turn? Ezekiel Elliott loose behind their powerful offensive line.
Kansas City Chiefs (3-2): Welcoming back Jamaal Charles and easing him into the offense helped Kansas City beat Oakland on Sunday. Defensive difference-maker Justin Houston becomes eligible to rejoin the team as early as Tuesday. A healthy Houston could be enough for the Chiefs to win the AFC West and deliver on my 11-win projection before the season.
Denver Broncos (4-2): The Broncos' defense and Gary Kubiak's offensive playcalling make for a winning combination. Quarterback Trevor Siemian remains unproven, however, and he already has missed some time because of injury. Banking on a defense to play at a historically high level is a tough way to win it all even though the 2015 Broncos and a few other teams have pulled it off.
Flawed, but not yet pretenders
Green Bay Packers (3-2): The Packers' two losses were to Minnesota and Dallas, teams with a combined 10-1 record. Green Bay still doesn't look right. Aaron Rodgers' presence keeps the Packers' ceiling high. Will the pass defense improve? Will Jordy Nelson ever dominate again? Will shaky health/depth at running back haunt this team late? So many questions.
Arizona Cardinals (2-3): The Cardinals have the quarterback, running back and pass-rush personnel to factor when it counts. But they've suffered enough turnover along the offensive line to call into question whether Carson Palmer can get comfortable and stay on the field. If Palmer remains a question mark, the Cardinals will drop into the pretender category.
Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2): The Steelers' depth has become shaky through injuries and roster attrition over the past eight months. Ben Roethlisberger proved in the playoffs that he can carry Pittsburgh even without key weapons on offense, but the consistency is not there. Now Roethlisberger is hurt. The defense badly needs Ryan Shazier and Cameron Heyward on the field. An unsettled division buys time for the Steelers to get healthier, and, if that happens, Pittsburgh will be New England's top challenger in the AFC. But there are still too many unknowns right now.
Cincinnati Bengals (2-4): The Bengals have lost to the Steelers, Broncos, Cowboys and Patriots. They play the Browns, Redskins and Giants next, giving them a chance to make up ground. But with less depth at receiver and no Tyler Eifert, the passing game is easier to defend. The Bengals are also getting pushed around on both lines to an unforeseen degree. That might be the biggest concern for the defending AFC North champs.
PRETENDERS
Oakland Raiders (4-2): The Raiders have made important strides, but their defense is not good enough and quarterback Derek Carr still hasn't conquered the best defenses. Carr has five touchdowns, five picks and an 0-4 record in his past four games against Kansas City, including the Raiders' 26-10 defeat at home Sunday. Oakland becomes a contender once it wins tough games in the division. The Raiders are 1-4 and averaging 14.4 points per game against Kansas City and Denver since the start of last season.
Buffalo Bills (4-2): An NFL team's analytics director had the Bills as a surprise team heading into the season. He could be right. Tyrod Taylor has 28 touchdown passes with eight interceptions since the start of last season, ranking ninth in Total QBR. The Bills' injury situation remains a concern for the long haul. They need victories over quality opponents to jump into the contenders group. Jacoby Brissett, Case Keenum and Colin Kaepernick were the opposing quarterbacks in three of the Bills' four victories.
Houston Texans (4-2): How badly did Brock Osweiler need the Texans' comeback victory over Indianapolis on Sunday night? The joy and relief on his face told the story. It was a great victory and a needed one, but the Colts' defense is a short measuring stick. Osweiler does not protect the ball well enough for the Texans to contend, especially minus J.J. Watt.
Washington Redskins (4-2): The Redskins make their fans nervous almost every week and have done so even during their current four-game winning streak, but it's getting to the point that the Kirk Cousins angst might be misplaced. Cousins has thrown more than one interception in a game only once over his past 17 starts, counting playoffs. But quality wins have been elusive. The Redskins were 0-4 last season, counting playoffs, against teams that finished with winning records. Their victory over the Eagles on Sunday made them 1-2 this season against teams that are currently above .500.
Philadelphia Eagles (3-2): Depth and playing with a rookie quarterback and first-time head coach were top concerns for the Eagles entering the season. Those could still be the top concerns even though Carson Wentz and Doug Pederson started fast. Wentz has plateaued some. Pederson used a timeout before punting on fourth-and-24 from his own 40 with 1:44 left in a game Philly trailed by one score Sunday. The Eagles never ran another offensive play.