Stars more injury-prone than ever
— -- Let's start with the conclusion and work backward. Injuries aren't up in the NBA this season, but there's a good reason it feels like they are.
From Paul George's horrific fibula/tibia fracture during last summer's USA Basketball training camp to reigning MVP Kevin Durant likely being ruled out for the season last week, the 2014-15 NBA campaign feels like it's been dominated by injuries. Yet the injury data I've tracked suggests the rate at which players have missed games due to injury is fairly typical. The disconnect can be explained in part by more injuries striking star players than usual.
Injury Rates, Season by Season
To measure the impact of injuries in the NBA, I've been tracking them for the last six seasons. Over that span, on average about 3.7 players combined among the two teams have missed each game due to injury. This year's rate, so far, is ... 3.7 players absent for each game.
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That number is actually down slightly from last season, when the average of four players out with injuries for each game was the high-water mark over the last six years. Because injuries tend to accumulate over the course of the season -- a natural tendency exaggerated by teams out of the playoff race acting conservatively with their injured players late in the year -- the rate might creep up slightly over the remainder of the schedule. However, it's unlikely 2014-15 will surpass 2010-11 or the lockout-shortened 2011-12 seasons, when an average of 3.8 players missed each game.
It's difficult to compare recent injuries to the historical trend in the NBA. My database doesn't extend past the last six seasons, and even if it did any data before 2005-06 would be tough to interpret. That's when the league moved to an inactive list rather than an injured list, which forced teams to come up with bogus or at least exaggerated injuries to keep extra players on their rosters.
More Injuries to Bigger Names
Digging deeper into the data reveals an interesting trend. While the rate of injuries doesn't seem to have changed much over the past six seasons, the amount of minutes and wins lost to injury has gone up. I estimate those totals based on minutes per game injured players average when healthy, and their average wins above replacement player (WARP) per game by my rating system.
This season has featured the most WARP lost due to injuries per game of any season in my database, while minutes lost have been above 80 per game three of the last four years after being well below 80 the first two on record. Taken together, the data suggests that injuries have disproportionately affected better players the last few seasons as compared to the first two in my database.
That's consistent with the subjective quality of the names on the injury list. Besides Durant and George, Carmelo Anthony, Kobe Bryant, Chris Bosh and Dwight Howard are among the All-Stars who have been sidelined for extended periods. The MVP race has been significantly affected by health. In addition to ruining Durant's chances of repeating, injuries to Anthony Davis, LeBron James and Russell Westbrook have hurt their cases for MVP.
To put the injuries to stars into a historical context, I looked back at All-Star teams dating back to 1978, finding what percentage of games All-Stars have played the following season. The trend is fascinating.
Before 2010-11, All-Stars had collectively missed more than 20 percent of their games the following season just twice, 1997 All-Stars in 1997-98 and 2004 All-Stars in 2004-05. Remarkably, that's happened each of the last four years. Last season actually featured the worst health by incumbent All-Stars, who collectively missed nearly a quarter of their games due to extended injuries suffered by Bryant (limited to six games), Brook Lopez (17), Rajon Rondo (30) Jrue Holiday (34) and Westbrook (46).
It's too early to draw any conclusions from this trend, but it certainly has to trouble the league. As entertaining as the 2014-15 season has been, it could be even better with something closer to full participation from star players.
News and Notes
• So which team has suffered the most due to injuries? The Los Angeles Lakers have lost a league-high 276 games, with Bryant missing much of the season, Steve Nash all of it and rookie Julius Randle all but one game. However, since the Lakers' injured players struggled when they were on the court, they rank in the middle of the pack in terms of WARP lost. By that perspective, the Indiana Pacers (17.5 WARP) have had the most painful injuries, followed by the Oklahoma City Thunder (16.7). The Minnesota Timberwolves (10.0) are the only other team to lose double-figure WARP to injuries. The complete rankings through Wednesday's games:
• For the second time in the last six years, the Suns have lost fewer games to injury than any other team in the league. With Oklahoma City suffering a rash of injuries, Phoenix now has the fewest games lost over the six-year period tracked by my database. That is testament to the Suns' innovative athletic training staff, a major competitive advantage for Phoenix.
At the same time, the Portland Trail Blazers (who face the Suns on Friday night in Phoenix) have found out that prevention alone cannot stop injuries. Last season, after bringing in Dr. Chris Stackpole to oversee the training staff, Portland lost the second-fewest games to injury. With the same staff in place, the Blazers have regressed to the middle of the pack this season. Wesley Matthews' ruptured Achilles was a tough blow to Portland's playoff chances, and the Blazers have also been without starting forwards LaMarcus Aldridge and Nicolas Batum and reserve Chris Kaman this week. (Aldridge returned in Wednesday's win at Utah, and Batum may play tonight.) Ultimately, random chance plays a huge role in how many injuries teams suffer each season. • My injury database also shows how much more common teams resting players has become. Already, the league has set a record with 81 players missing games due to "rest," more than the previous two seasons combined. In 2009-10 and 2010-11 combined, I marked just two games missed due to rest. Some of this is surely because Gregg Popovich and the San Antonio Spurs have made it acceptable to admit players are simply resting rather than using a euphemistic injury, but the Spurs have also changed the thinking about rest -- as Insider colleague Tom Haberstroh noted earlier this season.
• With a win Friday over Minnesota and a Memphis Grizzlies loss to Golden State, the Houston Rockets could climb even in the loss column with Memphis and a half-game back for the Southwest Division lead and second place in the Eastern Conference. My most recent simulations of the remainder of the season show the Rockets coming back to win the Southwest a little more than a third of the time, with a tiny outside chance of the San Antonio Spurs getting in the mix.
The Los Angeles Clippers also are in the mix despite being three games back of Memphis. Their easy schedule the remainder of the season gives the Clippers a real shot at grabbing the second seed, which they do in 12 percent of simulations. The Clippers can make up some ground if they take care of business tonight, when they visit Philadelphia fresh off a 31-point win over the Knicks at Madison Square Garden.
News and Notes
• So which team has suffered the most due to injuries? The Los Angeles Lakers have lost a league-high 276 games, with Bryant missing much of the season, Steve Nash all of it and rookie Julius Randle all but one game. However, since the Lakers' injured players struggled when they were on the court, they rank in the middle of the pack in terms of WARP lost. By that perspective, the Indiana Pacers (17.5 WARP) have had the most painful injuries, followed by the Oklahoma City Thunder (16.7). The Minnesota Timberwolves (10.0) are the only other team to lose double-figure WARP to injuries. The complete rankings through Wednesday's games:
• For the second time in the last six years, the Suns have lost fewer games to injury than any other team in the league. With Oklahoma City suffering a rash of injuries, Phoenix now has the fewest games lost over the six-year period tracked by my database. That is testament to the Suns' innovative athletic training staff, a major competitive advantage for Phoenix.
At the same time, the Portland Trail Blazers (who face the Suns on Friday night in Phoenix) have found out that prevention alone cannot stop injuries. Last season, after bringing in Dr. Chris Stackpole to oversee the training staff, Portland lost the second-fewest games to injury. With the same staff in place, the Blazers have regressed to the middle of the pack this season. Wesley Matthews' ruptured Achilles was a tough blow to Portland's playoff chances, and the Blazers have also been without starting forwards LaMarcus Aldridge and Nicolas Batum and reserve Chris Kaman this week. (Aldridge returned in Wednesday's win at Utah, and Batum may play tonight.) Ultimately, random chance plays a huge role in how many injuries teams suffer each season. • My injury database also shows how much more common teams resting players has become. Already, the league has set a record with 81 players missing games due to "rest," more than the previous two seasons combined. In 2009-10 and 2010-11 combined, I marked just two games missed due to rest. Some of this is surely because Gregg Popovich and the San Antonio Spurs have made it acceptable to admit players are simply resting rather than using a euphemistic injury, but the Spurs have also changed the thinking about rest -- as Insider colleague Tom Haberstroh noted earlier this season.
• With a win Friday over Minnesota and a Memphis Grizzlies loss to Golden State, the Houston Rockets could climb even in the loss column with Memphis and a half-game back for the Southwest Division lead and second place in the Eastern Conference. My most recent simulations of the remainder of the season show the Rockets coming back to win the Southwest a little more than a third of the time, with a tiny outside chance of the San Antonio Spurs getting in the mix.
The Los Angeles Clippers also are in the mix despite being three games back of Memphis. Their easy schedule the remainder of the season gives the Clippers a real shot at grabbing the second seed, which they do in 12 percent of simulations. The Clippers can make up some ground if they take care of business tonight, when they visit Philadelphia fresh off a 31-point win over the Knicks at Madison Square Garden.