What's That Bonds Record* Ball Worth?

July 28, 2007 — -- When Barry Bonds breaks Hank Aaron's all-time home run record, it's likely that the lucky fan who retrieves the ball won't command a record price if he or she wants to sell it.

In the multi-million dollar business of sports merchandise like signed baseballs, trading cards and football jerseys, prices react to news just like the market for stocks, according to auction houses and collectors. Bonds, who is being investigated for whether he lied to Congress about using steroids, is one of a growing list of current and former star athletes whose merchandise has been discounted by links to drugs, scandals or even illness.

"If Barry Bonds had no shadow hanging over him, certainly his upcoming home run baseball would be worth up to a few times more than what it will sell for now," said Jonathan Scheier, consignment director for Heritage Sports Collectables in Dallas.

It's anybody's guess what fans will be willing to pay for a record-setting ball that may have been hit by an artificially enhanced player, the experts say. To be sure, the ball will be worth of a lot of money, but not as much as an untainted one.

"I think, on the whole, one would hope ones heroes are untarnished," said Arlan Ettinger, president of Guernsey's auction house, which has sold monumental sports memorabilia such as the Mark McGwire 70th homerun ball. "And we're not here to judge Mr. Bonds, but it's clear he doesn't have the universal popularity that some players seem to have."

Active players who fall under a cloud also may miss out on the huge market for jerseys and other sports items with their name and number on them. That's true for the Atlanta Falcon's quarterback Michael Vick, who is accused of running an illegal dog fighting ring.

"There were zero jersey sales in the last month from Michael Vick," said Craig Cable, owner of khcsports.com, which sells pro and college sports memorabilia. "Anything with his name has disappeared. We went from five to 10 jerseys a month to absolutely nothing in the last month."

Professional athletes have had more their share of woes, from steroids, drugs, gambling, game-fixing and even murder.  Prices for football great O.J. Simpson's merchandise dove after he was accused (and later acquitted) of murdering his ex-wife Nicole and Ronald Goldman, according to Scheier.

Not only can scandals affect the prices of sports memorabilia for some of America's most prized athletes, so can health issues.

"Just like pro golfer Bobby Jones -- usually the memorabilia is specified pre-illness," said Scheier.

"The same goes for [Muhammad] Ali. His autographs back when he was healthy command quite a bit more money. ... People want the healthier autographs, and pay more as a result."

(Ali's Parkinson's disease has caused his handwriting to become progressively shaky over the years. Golf great Jones later in life had a spinal illness that caused paralysis and confined him to a wheelchair.)

Even when more and more money is being spent on sports memorabilia every year, the value of items fluctuate due to a player's public image or subsequent events in the sport, such as the order of record-breaking baseballs.  Experts and dealers seldom agree on which ball is worth more in a world record-breaking event.

Guernsey's auction house sold balls numbered 62-70 in the spirited home run race between Sammy Sosa and Mark McGwire in 1998. Ettinger said the in-between balls sold for varying amounts and that it's unclear how much the balls will sell for if Bonds hits additional homers after breaking the record this season.

"It's a pretty complex situation," said Ettinger.

Scheier says it all depends on collectors' own opinion.

"Some people see the ball that breaks the record to be the most desirable," said Scheier, "while others see the ultimate record ball as the most desirable."

Bill Huggins, president of Huggins and Scott Auctions, a Silver Spring, Md.-based worldwide internet sports memorabilia auction company, says he wants the one that ends it all.

"I think that when all is said and done ... come years from now, I want the last one, whatever it ends up being," said Huggins.

People will buy almost anything with the stamp of a famous athlete. Guernsey's auction house once sold Muhammad Ali's athletic supporter.

Those who buy high-end sports items take a risk and only time will tell if they hit the jackpot or overpaid. That's even more true when the item is connected to a player who is suspected of enhancing himself illegally to break records that are sacred to athletes and sports fans alike.

Mark McGwire's 70th homerun baseball was sold for about $3 million at Guernsey's auction house, and experts say its value has likely diminished greatly after allegations of McGwire steroid use.

McGwire refused to talk about his own possible steroid use before a U.S. Senate panel in 2005.

However, he told the committee that steroids were "as acceptable in the '80s and mid-to-late '90s as a cup of coffee."

That's why Scheier says if you catch Bonds' record-breaking homerun ball, you better sell it fast.

"There may come a time when Barry Bonds does get into serious trouble with the steroid issue," said Scheier. "If I caught that ball, I would leave the stadium and immediately go to an auction house. ... I would not want to be holding that ball when crap hits the fan."