Super Bowl XLIX picks, prop bets
— -- For the second year in a row, we have a marquee Super Bowl matchup with the defending champion Seattle Seahawks taking on the New England Patriots. It's also the second straight year in which both conferences' No. 1 seeds have reached the big game.
And, just like last year when the Seahawks-Broncos matchup led Nevada sports books to handle a record $119 million in wagers, we're well on our way to a similar amount by the time all the tickets are totaled this Sunday.
ESPN Insider's Super Bowl Betting Guide aims to bring you a comprehensive look at the Super Bowl and hopefully produce as many winners as last year's guide (three straight years if including two years ago, when three of our four handicappers were on Baltimore over San Francisco).
Insider's team of pro football handicappers, as well as John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information, will give their thoughts on the point spread and over/under as well as breaking down a bunch of the ever-popular proposition bets.
All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Wed., Jan. 28.
Matchup: Seattle Seahawks vs. New England Patriots
Spread: Opened Seattle -2.5; now New England -1
Total: Opened 48.5; now 47.5
Public consensus pick: 72 percent picked Patriots
Public perception: Most of the time, the public doesn't get involved in betting opening numbers as much as the sharps, but the gap narrows for the Super Bowl. The action came early on New England on championship Sunday and snowballed as the Patriots finished off their 45-7 rout of the Colts. And since the early push we're still seeing the public going with the Patriots, who are the more public team (note: 72 percent also was the public consensus number last year on the Broncos in this Super Bowl Betting Guide).
Insider PickCenter
Wondering which side to take? Check out PickCenter and do your research before making that critical decision. PickCenter 
Wiseguys' view: Some sharps were on the Patriots early, as well, though a lot of that was trying to grab stale numbers as they saw the bandwagon filling up on New England. It was clear pretty early that the Patriots were going to get bet to favoritism, just like Denver did last year. Now, the sharps are pretty split on the two teams, though those on Seattle wish this would steam a little higher. Still, the Seahawks will probably be a popular teaser play.
Tuley's take: I love that the line has flipped to make Seattle the underdog, just like last year when we had them plus-2.5 against Denver. It's eerily similar to last year with the Seahawks being power-rated more highly (and favored at books that offered advance lines) before the conference championship games and then having the tighter title game while the AFC champion coasts, and everything flips. I'll again take the most battle-tested team with the better defense as I believe the Seahawks are the better overall team (though not by a wide margin). I'm a huge fan of both coaching staffs, so I don't see an edge there and we should see a closer game than last year (though I certainly wouldn't mind another Seattle blowout). The Seahawks' defense should be able to contain the Patriots' attack and keep it close, even if the offense struggles like it did against Green Bay. I also like the fact Russell Wilson is much more accomplished (and more of a running threat) than he was in these two teams' last meeting in 2012, which he still managed to help Seattle win 24-23.
ATS pick: Seattle plus-1 (or as many points as we can get)
Erin Rynning: Heading into championship Sunday, the Seahawks would have been made a 3- to 3.5-point favorite over the Patriots. There's a hint of overreaction in this contest, similar to the Week 5 matchup when New England took on the Cincinnati Bengals. The Patriots were coming off an embarrassing loss to Kansas City 41-14 and were amazingly a 3-point home underdog to the Bengals. Of course, the Patriots demolished Cincinnati 43-17 to begin a seven-game winning streak. The Patriots dominated the Colts in every facet in the AFC title game and created a value overreaction, but they'll face entirely different matchups against the Seahawks.
In Seattle's thrashing of the Broncos last year in the Super Bowl 43-8, Seattle showed off a well-rounded and complete team. Again, this will serve as an advantage over a more one-dimensional Patriots club. The Seahawks should be able to control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football. Their offensive line is now healthy, and really good. The combination of Marshawn Lynch and Russell Wilson will create issues for a questionable Patriots run defense. Darrelle Revis is an awesome cornerback, but his impact in this matchup will be minimal.
Perhaps the key matchup in this game will be the Seahawks' defensive front against the Patriots' questionable offensive line. However, the Seahawks also possess a top-notch secondary and as good a matchup as you can have against tight end Rob Gronkowski in strong safety Kam Chancellor. It won't be easy against Brady and Bill Belichick, but I like the Seahawks to repeat as NFL champions.
ATS pick: Seattle
Over/under: 47.5
Tuley's take: This number opened as high as 49.5 at half of the 14 sports books in Vegas, with six others going with 49 and the Westgate opening lowest at 48.5. That was the time to bet the under, as it's been steadily bet lower. I agree with the move that the under is probably the right side, but I thought the same thing last year and was glad I passed when it snuck over the total of 48 in the Seahawks' 43-8 victory.
Super Bowls tend to be higher scoring as the long timeouts often help the offenses set up big plays, plus, as we saw last year, Seattle's defense and special teams also contributed to the scoring. Besides, unless I really think my underdog needs a low-scoring game to have a chance, I usually avoid betting the under with my 'dogs because I don't like when I get in a position where I have to cheer against them scoring. In fact, if this total drops another point, I would start to believe that the over might be the more likely winner.
The pick: Pass
Prop bets
Click here for a full listing of the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook's Super Bowl XLIX prop bets.
John Parolin's picks
Brandon Bolden rush yards on first attempt: 0.5 (Over: EVEN, Under: -120)
There are a few factors to consider here. No rushes equals "under," which has happened in nine of the team's 18 games this season (including the playoffs). These can be split in a few ways -- Stevan Ridley was lost for the year after Week 6 (rushes in four of 12 games), but Bolden has also received multiple rushes in three of his team's past four games.
Though the bet appears on the surface to be a "will he or won't he get a rush," it's worth noting that nine of Bolden's 31 rushes did not gain a yard (29 percent). Figuring out which of the three splits above is most applicable is difficult to do, but applying the 71 percent success rate to all three helps illustrate his chances. Using the post-Ridley split (four of 12 games with a rush) is a definitive under bet (less than 23 percent chance). Using his even 9-9 split gets a 36 percent chance, and using his three of the past four is only barely above half (53 percent). Bolden's inconsistent playing time makes the under the play.
The play: Under
Longest TD of game (includes all returns): 44.5 (O/U -110)
Neither defense is susceptible to the big play. The Seahawks and Patriots both gave up one touchdown from scrimmage of at least 45 yards this season, and the Patriots had one punt return touchdown that was at least 45 yards (no kick returns; Seattle had neither). The Seahawks had one defensive touchdown of at least 45 yards this year ( Bruce Irvin interception against the Rams). Given that neither return game is particularly explosive and both teams prioritize limiting the big play, an under seems like the best call in a pick-'em situation.
The play: Under
Distance of first Tom Brady TD pass: 9.5 yards (O/U -110, if no TD pass all bets refunded)
Brady has thrown an NFL-record 49 postseason touchdown passes. Of those 49, 33 were gains of 9 yards or fewer (67 percent), an excellent basis for the under here. Including the playoffs, the Seahawks allowed 20 touchdowns this season, 14 of which were 9-yard gains or shorter (70 percent). This is a defense that limits intermediate-to-long pass plays against an offense that specializes in short timing routes -- given that Brady not throwing a TD means the bets are refunded, this one looks pretty good.
The play: Under
Will the Seahawks get a rushing touchdown? (Yes -220, No +190)
The Seahawks have scored a rushing touchdown in 27 of 37 games (73 percent) over the past two seasons (including playoffs), close enough to the lines given that there's not a ton of value there either way. That is, until you look at the Patriots' rush defense, which has allowed touchdowns in only seven of 18 games this season. Seattle's zone-read rushing game has resulted in five touchdowns for Wilson this season, but the Patriots limit that better than most. New England has forced the quarterback to hand off on 92 percent of zone-read plays, third highest in the league. A single Wilson zone-read touchdown was the difference between "yes" and "no" for five of the 27 successes above, creating some value here. Chances are still good that Beast Mode will find the end zone, but the odds for "no" are too good for the intrepid gambler to pass up.
The play: No
Which team will score last in the first half? (Patriots/Seahawks -110)
The Patriots had a plus-79 point margin in the second quarter this season (best in the league), while Seattle's plus-24 tied for ninth. For as good as Seattle's defense has been this season, it hasn't been invincible in the second quarter (100 points, 12th in NFL). The Patriots have scored the most points in the league in the last four minutes and the last two minutes of the first half, with a plus-32 point margin in the two-minute drill that almost doubles up Seattle's plus-17. In a pick-'em, the numbers favor New England.
The play: Patriots
Will Tom Brady's first pass be complete (-180) or incomplete (+160)?
It's tempting to just look at Brady's overall 64.1 completion percentage here and say there's no value to be had, but it's more applicable to look at Brady's first pass in his 18 games this season given how they're a little more likely to have been planned than his average pass. Brady completed 14 of his first 18 passes this season (78 percent), a better number than the minus-180 odds would suggest.
The play: Complete
Will the first kickoff result in a touchback?
Stephen Gostkowski : Yes -140, No +120
Steven Hauschka : Yes -165, No +145
Overall, Gostkowski kicked touchbacks on almost half (57 of 113) his kickoffs this year, but New England played plenty of games in less than ideal conditions. Gostkowski's kickoffs had returns on 21 of 30 tries when the weather was 40 degrees or below, an environment unlikely to be replicated in Arizona on Sunday. Gostkowski induced touchbacks on 61 percent of kickoffs when the weather was above both 50 and 60 degrees, making "yes" at minus-140 the better play than "no" at plus-120.
Hauschka had touchbacks on 52 percent of his kickoffs this year, slightly above Gostkowski, but Hauschka has way more of a track record at University of Phoenix Stadium. Hauschka has kicked touchbacks on 13 of 23 (56.5 percent) kickoffs since 2011 playing in Arizona, giving a slight edge to "no" at plus-145.
The play: Gostkowski, yes; Hauschka, no
Team to have the first penalty (declined penalties do not count): Patriots (EVEN), Seahawks (-120)
The Seahawks had 32 penalties enforced in the first quarter this season, tied for the second most of any team in the league. The Patriots had 21 first-quarter penalties, 12th fewest. Given the Seahawks accounted for 60 percent of the teams' first-quarter penalties, a minus-120 line offers a little more value than the even odds on the Patriots. Seattle's plus-15 penalty margin in the first quarter reinforces that bet compared with New England's even first-quarter penalty margin.
The play: Seahawks
Distance of first Jermaine Kearse reception: 9.5 (O/U -110, no reception = "under")
Kearse has had a catch in 17 of 18 games, so the "under via no reception" win is only a small consideration here. Kearse recorded 9 yards or fewer on 20 of 42 receptions this year and at least 10 yards on the other 22. Added value comes when looking at Kearse's target distribution and hypothesizing New England's coverage plan. Over half (53 percent) of Kearse's targets come at least 10 yards downfield, putting him over without a single yard after the catch (he averages 6.7 YAC per reception). That, combined with the assumption that the Patriots use Revis on Doug Baldwin (leaving Kyle Arrington for Kearse), means Kearse is better than 50-50 to have a 10-yard catch.
The play: Over
Brandon LaFell: 50.5 receiving yards (O/U -110)
Removing the first few weeks of the season is important when looking at a LaFell bet, as he didn't really earn Brady's trust until Week 4 against the Chiefs according to the quarterback himself. So why in a pick-'em is the suggested bet an "under" for LaFell, who went over in 11 of 15 games since Week 4? Because 103 of LaFell's 116 targets came when LaFell lined up as a perimeter wide receiver, which is where the Seahawks' defense did its best work. Seattle's defense held perimeter wide receivers to 1,219 yards this season, lowest of any team in the league. The Seahawks allowed 97 fewer yards than the Broncos, who held LaFell to four receptions for 39 yards in Week 9. Seattle's defense was the only unit in the league to allow fewer than 1,000 yards outside the numbers (990), and LaFell's game plays directly to their strength.
The play: Under
Dave Tuley's picks
Props are called "the game within the game," and last year we had a lot of success tying our plays to our overall game pick on the Seahawks. So that's what I'm looking to do again, though I'll start with a prop tied to the expectation of it being a close game.
Double result of first-half result/game winner: This is the first prop bet I made last week. I took "Halftime tie/Seahawks win" and "Halftime tie/Patriots win" each for $100 at 15-1 at William Hill (it's also offered at the Westgate SuperBook at 15-1, and I've seen it lower elsewhere). Basically, I'm cheering for a halftime tie, and then I'll be guaranteed of cashing for $1,600 (7-1 on overall wager). With the game line and first-half line around pick-'em, I love those odds that I'm getting in a game that could see the teams trading scores. If a book was making odds on a halftime score, I believe 10-10 would be the favorite and other tied scores would be low prices, as well. I cashed this bet in 2005 when the Patriots and Eagles played to a 7-7 halftime tie. I've lost a few since then, but still ahead overall on this wager and believe this is a good spot to jump back in.
Russell Wilson longest rush OVER 14.5 yards (O/U -110): I cashed with this last year (it was O/U 11.5 yards and Wilson had a 16-yard run) and he relies even more on the read-option now, as well as the chance to scramble for big gains. The Patriots have faced very few QBs with the ability to run, the most mobile probably being Aaron Rodgers, and he had a 17-yard run against them in Week 13.
LeGarrette Blount rushing yards UNDER 61.5 (O/U -110): The Patriots have been more balanced at times, but I believe that they'll be forced to abandon the running game at some point. I've considered other props such as Blount under 14 carries or even taking Brady over some of his individual props, but this one makes the most sense to me as far as Seattle shutting down the running game.
Most penalty yards by Seahawks (-150): It was only minus-120 last year, but I also like it a lot more this year. This might sound counterintuitive, but I expect the Seahawks to "lose" this stat and have more penalty yards because that's how they play (as they led the league in penalty yards again this year). They're going to be manhandling the New England receivers and trying to get away with everything they can, and they'll be willing to trade some penalty yards for tighter coverage overall. And it seems far more likely for the Patriots' receivers to benefit from a long pass-interference penalty.
Shortest TD of the game UNDER 1.5 yards (-120): This is a short favorite at minus-120, but I like this prop as it can cash if a team is pounding the ball with the run and gets inside the 1-yard line (like the Seahawks are wont to do) or if a pass-interference penalty in the end zone places the ball at the 1-yard line (kind of correlated to previous prop). It also cashes with a defensive fumble recovery in the end zone.
Total number of different players to have a passing attempt OVER 2.5 (+280): This is usually a sucker bet (and I know I'm down lifetime on this Super Bowl prop), but I really believe it's worth a shot in this matchup at plus-280 for more than two players to throw a pass. We obviously get the QB from each team, so we need just one more pass from a backup QB or any other player. It sounds easy, but usually doesn't happen; however, in this year's playoffs, we've already seen New England wide receiver Julian Edelman throw a TD after taking a lateral from Brady and Seattle punter Jon Ryan throw a TD pass on a fake field goal. With these two risk-taking coaches, I really think we'll see some "trickeration" at some point in this game.
Erin Rynning's pick
Seahawks minus-48.5 rush yards over Patriots (O/U -110):
Quite simply, I expect the Seahawks to control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football. The Patriots have a weakness in stopping the run, while the Seahawks are the best running team in the NFL. Meanwhile, the game plan for the Patriots will most likely not emphasis the run and I expect more of a box score like their playoff game against the Baltimore Ravens. The Patriots ran the ball just 13 times in that game, while being outrushed 136 yards to 14.
Tom Brady OVER 37.5 pass attempts (O/U -110):
Brady averaged 38 pass attempts per game in the regular season, throwing out their final game against the Buffalo Bills. In addition, he attempted 50 passes against the Ravens in their playoff game. I expect the Patriots to use a spread, up-tempo, quick-hitting passing game. Peyton Manning attempted 49 passes in last year's Super Bowl loss.
Wunderdog's pick
Longest field goal UNDER 44.5 yards (Over -130, Under +110)
In his career, Gostkowski has kicked 244 field goals with 48 of them coming at 45 yards or longer -- that's just 19.6 percent of his attempts. His average field goal made is from a distance of 34.3 yards. Seattle's Hauschka has kicked 24 career field goals of 45-plus yards out of 130 total (18.5 percent). His average made field goal is 35.5 yards. So why do we feel that there's much of a chance of a 45-plus-yard field goal in this game? Out of 48 Super Bowls, there have been only 13 games with field goals of over 45 yards (27.1 percent). Fair odds on a 27.1 percent bet are minus-270. But has this changed recently?
With the recent rule changes that favor offense, this percentage has actually decreased. Over the past 10 Super Bowls, only two have seen a field goal made at 45 yards or longer. Since Super Bowl XLI, seven of eight Super Bowls have had the longest field goal come in under 45 yards. So, we have kickers who kick 45-plus-yard field goals less than 20 percent of the time and a Super Bowl history that shows this rarely happens. Take the under on this prop.