5-on-5: What changes will Thibodeau make with Wolves?
— -- With Tom Thibodeau taking over the Timberwolves, what moves will Thibs make? Will the Wolves win right away?
Our 5-on-5 crew talks about what we should expect from this exciting young team going forward.
1. Three pros and cons of the Thibodeau hire?
Amin Elhassan, ESPN Insider: Pro: Thibs will help a defense that languished toward the bottom of the league in efficiency. There's no reason why a team with the defensive acumen of Ricky Rubio, Karl-Anthony Towns, Gorgui Dieng and Andrew Wiggins should be as terrible as Minnesota has been, and the expectation is this the biggest area for immediate improvement.
Pro: Thibs will bring credibility through preparation. A tireless film study buff, Thibs' dedication to the nitty-gritty details of the job will set the tone for the entire organization, trickling down to the roster, and set a culture for a franchise in desperate need for it.
Con: I'm all about separation of church and state, and am always wary of the coach who is given final say. The nature of a coach is to be in "win now" mode, while the nature of a front office guy is to see the big picture, and more often than not, when push comes to shove, the coach-president will behave like a coach before a president.
Jeremias Engelmann, ESPN Insider: Con: Thibodeau's stubbornness when it comes to lowering the workload for starters --something Gregg Popovich deservedly gets praise for -- earned him a lot of criticism in Chicago. And based on what he has said, it doesn't seem like wants to deviate from his ways, which could be bad news for injury-prone players on the Wolves roster.
Pro: Thibodeau ranks sixth of 130 coaches in my coach metric (coach RAPM).
Con: He also got the title of president of basketball operations. He should concentrate on coaching.
David Thorpe, ESPN Insider: He was not only the best and lowest-risk coach available, he's also one of the four or five elite coaches in the league, period. They would have made the playoffs this past season with him, and seem certain to do so next season.
My one concern is his role as team president -- I think that's a big mistake. Each position is a full-time job, and one can enhance the success of the other. Not in this case.
Bradford Doolittle, ESPN Insider: The defense is going to get a whole lot better. Minnesota was 27th this season. Given its athleticism and size, I'd be shocked if the Wolves don't get into the top 10 next season. (That would mean chopping five points off their defensive efficiency, which is points allowed per 100 possessions.)
On the personnel front, I think Thibs is well situated after a year-long tour of studying the league, analytics, etc.
One con is that I worry about the minutes of Wiggins. Thibs has a hard time taking his best wing defender off the floor -- just ask Luol Deng and Jimmy Butler.
Kevin Pelton, ESPN Insider: Pros: (1) Massive defensive upgrade and (2) sneaky improvement offensively given Thibodeau's track record of eschewing midrange jumpers in favor of higher-value 3-pointers.
Con: (3) Giving Thibodeau control of basketball operations, which generally isn't a good idea and doesn't fit his track record managing short-term and long-term goals.
2. Fact or Fiction: The Timberwolves should spend their cap space this offseason.
Elhassan: Fact, but not all of it. Best way to move a culture forward is with vets who know exactly what the coach is trying to instill and serve as leaders by both voice and example. That means not swinging for the fences in free agency, but a more targeted approach.
Engelmann: Fact. The Wolves haven't reached the playoffs in over a decade. Given that there are already two very young No. 1 picks on the roster, they don't need additional young players. Rather, they should enter win-now mode and start to accumulate more good players, as their bench was one of the worst in the league last season. If they could sign Nicolas Batum to a reasonable deal, that would be great for them.
Thorpe: "Should" is a strong word. I just think they should be open to it. Making the right moves to help them step up into the West's top tier for the long run is wise. Also, not every guy in the league will want to play for Thibs, so finding an improvement willing to come is important.
Doolittle: Faction. Thibodeau is in a great position. He can take a swing at a small group of ideal fits. If he misses, so what? Minnesota can sign a lower-cost shooter, fill out the bench, create a stir next season and be in the catbird's seat in 2017.
But if the right guy is there, why wait? I would love to see Harrison Barnes on that roster, for example.
Pelton: Fiction. Minnesota will be better positioned to strike in free agency in 2017, when the team will likely be a better draw for top free agents and will have more money available to spend.
3. Fact or Fiction: We have seen the Wolves' next playoff starting lineup.
Starting lineup at end of season: Ricky Rubio, Zach LaVine, Andrew Wiggins, Gorgui Dieng, Karl-Anthony Towns.
Elhassan: Fiction. I'm not saying that all those players won't still be on the roster, but there's got to be a couple of more established players in there to help this team take the next step.
Engelmann: Fiction. LaVine may wow the crowds with his spectacular dunks, but he plays like JaVale McGee in a guard's body -- with too many gambles that lead to easy baskets for opponents. He has a -3.6 RPM, and Wiggins is at -1.9. While Wiggins is likely to remain a starter for years to come, until they improve or there is a replacement for LaVine, it will be hard for the Wolves to make the playoffs.
Thorpe: Probably not. I love Dieng but see him as a starting center elsewhere. LaVine has to get smarter to prosper under Thibs as a starter. But the bigger point is, this team is loaded with talent and youth, giving President Thibs enormous trade options.
Doolittle: Fiction. It's close but I think we'll see more of a veteran 3-and-D type in that mix, with LaVine as a Sixth Man Award candidate. I know LaVine has developed as a shooter, but I think you get more utility from him if you're not trying to blend his usage rate full time with that of Wiggins and Towns.
Pelton: Fiction. As well as that group did, I still think Dieng fits better as a third big man than a starter. And LaVine's role on a contender might still be instant offense on the bench rather than starting shooting guard.
4. What intrigues you most about the Wolves going forward?
Elhassan: The combo of Wiggins and Towns. Given any player in the league to start a franchise, Towns might be the best name. He's the prototypical big of the future who can score on the inside, can space the floor from the perimeter, can defend the post and can defend out in space in pick-and-rolls, and is an excellent help defender. It doesn't hurt that he's also a great character guy.
Engelmann: I think it will be most interesting to see whether Thibodeau can work the same magic he did in Chicago. The Bulls jumped from 11th in defense to first. If he can get LaVine to play more solid D, get Towns to start boxing out and generally instill some solid defensive principles, a significant improvement in defensive efficiency -- they were 27th last season -- seems possible.
Thorpe: They have two Hall-of-Fame talents under the age of 22. Each can be the best player at his position in the world inside of five years. If you think Butler and Joakim Noah got better under Thibs, just wait until you see what he can do with these two future stars. That means a better motor for Wiggins and more assertiveness for KAT. And LaVine's best chance for being a star is playing for a strong coach. So, boom.
Doolittle: The level and depth of athleticism on the roster with a coach who will put that to optimal use. The defense is going to be fun to watch, not to mention the transition opportunities that spring from it. Thibs relies heavily on his point guard on defense, so he'll love Rubio.
Pelton: That unlike other teams with a transcendent talent like Towns (say Anthony Davis in New Orleans or LeBron James in Cleveland), the Timberwolves have so many other talented young prospects already on hand. That's what makes comparisons with the Thunder realistic, if still a bit hopeful.
5. How many games will Minnesota win next season?
Elhassan: 40. I think .500 is a bit too lofty a goal, but I can definitely see Minnesota being one of the most improved teams next year.
Engelmann: The Wolves, these last few years, have often looked good on paper, but something always seems to go awry, which makes me hesitant to give them a large bump in wins, even with an upgrade at coach and with players expected to improve naturally due to experience. If they're not active in free agency, I would not expect more than 34 wins next season.
Thorpe: As they stand today I would say 46-50, give or take a few. Yes, this team, with just another veteran player or two mixed in, has an outside chance to win 55 games. Believe it, Wolves fans, great times are ahead. Thibs may ultimately self-destruct -- we can't know yet. But we do know he is a brilliant coach at winning games, and this team is loaded to do that.
Doolittle: I think they'll get into the upper 40s, maybe even low 50s, so I'll just go with 50 as a round number. They got a lot better near the end of the season and with so many young players would have gotten better even without the coaching change. Thibs wouldn't have gone there if he didn't think Minnesota was ready to win.
Pelton: I think a .500 record is a realistic baseline, though there's certainly the potential for a rapid improvement along the lines of the one Oklahoma City made or the leap forward Chicago took during Thibodeau's first year at the helm. Those teams both added more talent than the Timberwolves likely will this offseason, however.