Trade grades: Who wins the Bucks-Hornets center swap?
The deal
Hornets get: Center Miles Plumlee
Bucks get: Center Spencer Hawes, center Roy Hibbert
Charlotte Hornets: D
Quietly, Hornets starting center Cody Zeller has been one of the league's most indispensable players this season because of his two departed backups. Per NBA.com/Stats, Charlotte has a plus-8.3 net rating per 100 possessions with Zeller on the floor (best among Hornets regulars) but is outscored by 4.6 points per 100 possessions with him on the bench.
The Hornets are 22-16 this season when Zeller plays and 1-11 without him, including five consecutive losses with Zeller sidelined by a quadriceps contusion, which surely served as the impetus for making a deal.
Still, this trade is the wrong solution. It's the equivalent of fixing a car that won't start by going out and buying a much more expensive car instead of simply changing the battery.
Charlotte's issue was really the lack of a third center. The Hornets had gotten by just fine with Hibbert replacing Zeller in the starting lineup, which was still outscoring opponents by 7.9 points per 100 possessions -- only a slight drop-off from that group with Zeller. The problem came when Charlotte had to play Hawes (minus-9.8 net rating) or try Frank Kaminsky at center (such lineups have given up 120.8 points per 100 possessions, via NBAwowy.com).
Instead of looking for a cheap fill-in to upgrade the rest of the season, the Hornets dealt for one of the league's worst contracts. Plumlee will make $12.5 million a year through 2019-20, and it's quickly become evident (if it wasn't already) that he's worth nothing near that amount in a center-saturated league.
Plumlee has few major weaknesses and won't hurt Charlotte when he's on the court. But he also doesn't do anything at an above-average level save perhaps offensive rebounding. And although Plumlee is in his fifth season, he entered the league so late that he's already 28. This contract will take him well into the decline phase of his career, by which point he projects no better than replacement level. While the Hornets were unlikely to use cap space this summer, Plumlee's exorbitant salary will limit their flexibility beyond that point.
For that price, Charlotte didn't even fix the immediate problem. By trading two centers for one, the Hornets are still left playing either Kaminsky, little-used reserve Christian Wood or a player signed as a free agent ( Shams Charania of the Vertical reports they'll call up training-camp cut Mike Tobey from the D-League to fill an open roster spot) when Zeller is out of the lineup. So I'm not sure they got better in the short term.
Milwaukee Bucks: A
The Bucks have to be thrilled to essentially get a mulligan on Plumlee's contract so quickly. Aside from three recent starts, Plumlee had mostly fallen out of Milwaukee's center rotation, which has had only one constant: Greg Monroe as sixth man. Lately, the Bucks had been starting rookie Thon Maker ahead of Plumlee, with John Henson as a fourth reasonable option.
Instead of owing Plumlee $37.5 million over the next three seasons, Milwaukee's only remaining salary commitment beyond 2016-17 is Hawes' $6.0 million player option for next season.
Depending what happens with Monroe's player option, the Bucks have given themselves more options this summer. If Monroe opts out and leaves, Milwaukee could stretch Hawes' salary and create somewhere in the neighborhood of $15 million to go shopping for a replacement or help elsewhere. And even if Monroe stays or re-signs, the Bucks will have more freedom to spend on an extension for Jabari Parker without as much concern about the luxury tax.
The only quibble with this deal from Milwaukee's end is that the roster becomes even more center-heavy. Unless they waive either Hawes or Hibbert immediately after completing this deal (which required them to waive Steve Novak first to free the necessary roster spot), five of the Bucks' 15 roster spots will go to players who are primarily centers. Among that group, only Maker can realistically slide to power forward.
But it's not as if Milwaukee was getting much from Novak, who had played just 22 minutes all season, and Khris Middleton's forthcoming return will fortify the Bucks' wing rotation.