Vegas experts' guide to betting Alabama-Clemson
— -- After 40 bowl games, the College Football Playoff National Championship is finally upon us, with the Clemson Tigers and Alabama Crimson Tide squaring off in Arizona on Monday night. Can Nick Saban claim his fifth ring or will Dabo Swinney take home his first title?
Our CFB Vegas experts here at Chalk, including Chris Fallica, "Stanford Steve" Coughlin, Phil Steele and Will Harris, have gathered for the final time this season to give you their best bets for the game.
No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide (-7) vs. No. 1 Clemson Tigers
Total: 51
8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN | University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
PickCenter consensus pick: 68 percent pick Alabama
Steele: My computer had Oklahoma defeating Clemson in the semifinals. After watching Clemson's dominating second half and the way the Tigers played in the underdog role, I thought there was no way I was going to go against them here. Clemson has a mobile quarterback in Deshaun Watson, something that has given Alabama problems in the past: Chad Kelly and Ole Miss had 433 yards, Dak Prescott and Mississippi State had 393 yards and Joshua Dobbs and Tennessee put up 21 first downs in games against the Tide this season. And Clemson's offense is better than all of those.
Clemson's defense has held foes to 105 yards below their season averages, and its offense has gained 156 more yards per game than its opponents normally allow. That is a combined plus-261 yards, which leads the nation, while Alabama is No. 2 in that category at plus-222. Clemson is No. 1 in the country and still almost a touchdown 'dog. I could make a great case for Clemson, but I'm still taking Alabama in this one.
I feel the Crimson Tide are the most talented team in the country, and their defense and defensive depth are amazing. They have three potential first-round draft picks on the defensive line in Jonathan Allen, A'Shawn Robinson and Jarran Reed, and have the best rush defense in the country, allowing just 71 yards per game and 2.3 yards per carry. Saban's defenses averaged just 29.5 sacks per season over the six previous years, but this season the unit has produced an FBS-leading 50. Clemson's young offensive line has performed better than expected, but has yet to face a front seven like the one it will face here. Alabama has more speed at linebacker than it has had recently, which will help them contain Watson.
On offense it will be a much different game plan than last week's. Michigan State shut down the rushing offenses from all the top teams it faced, but its weakness was the secondary. Clemson has a much better secondary, and while its front seven has top-notch personnel, it's still thin. I look for the Tide to run Derrick Henry early and often. He may not have great success in the first quarter, but that offensive line will help him wear down the Clemson defense as the game goes on.
Alabama has a different look this year after it lost in last season's playoff; the Crimson Tide are not about to let that happen again. They get the advantage of some extra practice time with Clemson limited to just 20 hours as school is back in session for the Tigers. Alabama also has the edge on special teams, which is often overlooked. The Crimson Tide are used to this type of setting and that experience and depth will give Saban his fifth national title.
ATS pick: Alabama
Score: Alabama 30, Clemson 20
Fallica: I think this number is a little on the high side, as there has been a reaction to how dominant the Tide were in their win over Michigan State. But as many mentioned leading up to that semifinal, Michigan State was the absolute perfect opponent for Alabama. The Spartans simply didn't have the pieces to exploit Alabama and were no match in "strength vs. strength" matchups. And once CB Darian Hicks was hobbled with an ankle injury, it allowed Calvin Ridley to run free and make Jake Coker's job easy. That job isn't going to be as easy against a much better defense Monday night. And remember, Clemson has four wins over teams currently ranked in the top 10 (Florida State, Notre Dame, North Carolina and Oklahoma), while Alabama has just the one win over Michigan State, so there should be zero doubt about Clemson's pedigree here.
Cordrea Tankersley and Mackensie Alexander can certainly limit big plays in the Alabama passing game, as the Tigers have already held Baker Mayfield to a 23 QBR and DeShone Kizer to a 29 QBR. Even without Shaq Lawson, the Tigers shut down the Oklahoma running game and were in the backfield all game. I thought the break between the end of the regular season and the Orange Bowl would do wonders for the Tigers, and it did. I expect Brent Venables to play a lot of zone here and force Coker to read a lot more coverages than he had to against Michigan State.
If the Tigers can't stop the Alabama running game, it could be all for naught. However, if Clemson has success up front -- and I think it can -- maybe the Tigers can force some mistakes on third-and-long situations. Alabama is just 6-of-30 on third-and-5 or longer in the past three games, and it has converted just 24.6 percent of those situations this year.
Watson has been doing a lot of damage with his legs lately as well. He has carried the ball at least 21 times and gained at least 114 yards each of the past three games, with a season-high 145 yards in the win over Oklahoma. Watson can also throw the ball, though, and that's what makes him so dangerous. He has a Power 5-best 16 TD passes on throws of 20-plus yards, so while the Alabama secondary has been dominant, Watson possesses the most unique threat the Tide have faced at the QB position this year. Ole Miss' Kelly threw for 341 yards and had seven 20-yard completions in an upset win over the Tide earlier this year, but he ran the ball only eight times.
I think there are two ways to play this game: Either lay the points or play Clemson on the money line. Going back to the first BCS National Championship Game, there have been 21 games that have decided the national championship (including the CFP semifinals and final). The only time the underdog covered but didn't win outright was in 2013, when Auburn lost by three as a double-digit underdog in the final seconds to Florida State. Ten other times the 'dog won outright and 10 other times the favorite covered, with those 10 favorites covering by better than 18 PPG. So history shows that either the favorite wins easily, as Alabama has in four previous instances (winning by 38, 28, 21 and 16 as a 10-, 9.5-, 2.5- and 3.5-point favorite), or loses outright, as Alabama did last year to Ohio State as a 9.5-point favorite.
Given Clemson's recent success as an underdog -- the Tigers have won four straight bowl games, each coming as a 'dog -- an emotional edge which they have been playing with all year, a defense which should pose a good challenge for the Alabama offense and Watson, who will be the best QB Alabama has played all year, I'll go with Clemson to win the game and capture its second national title in school history.
ATS pick: Clemson
Score: Clemson 24, Alabama 21
Coughlin: I'll be the first to admit that I underestimated the Alabama staff going into the playoff game against Michigan State. I didn't think the Crimson Tide would get out of their offensive mindset, which I believe is centered on getting Henry about 30 carries. Saban allowed Lane Kiffin to call his kind of game, which featured a lot of quick screens and ultimately the deep ball over the secondary of Sparty, which produced two big-time touchdowns by Ridley. I'll also admit that I didn't think Coker was capable of completing 25-of-30 passes.
On the other side of the ball, I was shocked Clemson didn't lose anything defensively against Oklahoma when Lawson went out. Looking at this matchup, the player who has the most weight on his shoulders is Watson. Will he be able to create plays and get first downs with his feet when pass plays break down or he gets flushed from the pocket by the best front seven he will face this year? Or will he try to take a chance and make plays the way he did at the end of the first half versus Oklahoma, which ended in what looked like a costly interception at the time.
Clemson matches up pretty well in all facets against Alabama; I just don't think the Tigers will play as well as they did in their last game, and that has a lot to do with their opponent. I'll lay the points here.
ATS pick: Alabama
Score: Alabama 28, Clemson 19
Harris: A couple of months ago we called Clemson an outfit that could get to the final, but not win it all, and we still see Alabama's big-game experience as a significant edge versus a Tigers squad that's putting a lot of youth on the field. Against Oklahoma, Clemson showed off the power makeover that has gotten the program to this point, with Watson and tailback Wayne Gallman rushing for just short of 300 yards, much of it on downhill interior runs.
Running between the tackles is not going to fly against an Alabama defense that's as stout versus the run as any in the past decade and features a defensive line that might be the sport's best group at that position in history. Watson is an accurate deep thrower and will make some plays downfield, but Alabama's defenders are elite tacklers, and we're skeptical that the Tigers can move the chains with enough regularity to threaten a team total that's currently north of three touchdowns. We're certainly not bullish on Gallman's chances to crack the over on his 60-yard rushing prop bet.
Back in September, Alabama needed to find a quarterback so it could form an offensive identity, stop killing itself on special teams and continue to improve in the secondary. Now, all those boxes are checked. Coker has gone from an error-prone rookie gamer to a savvy, veteran, heart-and-soul-of-the-offense leader who alternates turns as playmaker and ace game manager. Freshman Minkah Fitzpatrick has filled a void in the defensive backfield while secondary mainstays Cyrus Jones and Eddie Jackson have upped their games. And speaking of Jones, also a return man extraordinaire, the special teams' transformation from liability to weapon is even more remarkable than Coker's rapid evolution.
It's hard to find edges favoring Clemson in this matchup. Most of what the Tigers do well, like running the ball, stopping the run and getting after the opposing passer, Alabama does even better. And much of what the Tigers struggle with, like turnovers and field position, are strengths for the Crimson Tide. The differences in the special teams and field position really stand out as potentially difficult to overcome, especially for an underdog that's already a little smaller and less experienced.
Thursday night's beatdown of one of the best teams in Michigan State history was a gaudy display of power that should have shown the buy sign to the last remaining doubters. Take Alabama in this one.
ATS pick: Alabama
Score: Alabama 31, Clemson 14