Washington Wizards: 2015-16 player profiles
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Here are our player scouting reports and 2015-16 projections for the Washington Wizards.
Projected starters
John Wall
Position: Guard
Experience: 5 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Lightning-fast point guard with developing jumper
+ Elite distributor. Loves the right elbow
+ Excellent defender who blocks shots and blankets opponent
Analysis
Wall became more of a facilitator last season, notching his first double-digit assist average of his career while also seeing his scoring average dip from 19.3 to 17.6 points per game. Wall's 3-point shot crumbled after the All-Star break, and then he broke his left wrist in the Eastern Conference semifinals, torpedoing the Wizards' season.
Though Wall seemed to add a reliable 3-point shot in 2013-14, it wasn't a weapon last season. He shot just 30 percent from downtown last season and watched his pick-and-roll game suffer as defenders went under the screen. Among the 12 ball handlers with at least 500 pick-and-roll plays last season, Wall finished last in scoring efficiency on the play. Put it this way: MVP Stephen Curry scored 14 more points than Wall via pick-and-roll and needed 139 fewer plays to do it, per Synergy tracking. Turns out having a good jump shot helps.
Wall can get a little carried away with his turnovers, but you'll live with it if he scores 20 points and sets up another 20. Quietly, Wall's best attribute may be his defense, where he ranked fourth among all point guards in defensive RPM. The Wizards were horrid on both ends when Wall stepped off the floor, but the bigger impact was felt on the defensive end, where they hemorrhaged 104.8 points per 100 possessions with him on the bench. The only thing keeping Wall from entering the MVP conversation is his 3-point shot.
Bradley Beal
Position: Guard
Experience: 3 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Elite 3-point shooter plagued by mid-range love affair
+ Can handle the rock. Weirdly better on playoff stage
+ Can't seem to stay healthy, but still young
Analysis
Will the real Bradley please stand up? The Florida product finished his second standout playoff performance last season averaging 23.4 points, 4.6 assists and 5.5 rebounds per game thanks to more reliance on his 3-point shot. During the season, he looked like he had taken a step back in his development and became maddeningly complacent with his shot selection.
Beal leaves so much money on the table with his obsession with the long 2. Last season, he took about 100 more mid-range shots than 3-pointers despite the 3-pointer being twice as rewarding.
Defenses are giving him the pull-up mid-range shot for a reason: It's a winning defensive play. Beal posted one of the worst pick-and-roll efficiencies last season precisely because he was hell-bent on taking a mid-range shot where he can't get to the line or make them at a high rate. Among 53 players who used at least 250 pick-and-roll plays last season, only Michael Carter-Williams shot worse on pick-and-roll finishes than Beal (34.9 percent), according to Synergy tracking.
Beal did better in the playoffs, but putting aside that he's missed 54 games in his first three seasons, he's still ways away from fulfilling his potential. Under a different coach, he may get there. But under Randy Wittman, Beal seems like a player who will be happy to settle rather than attack.
Otto Porter
Position: Forward
Experience: 2 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Sixth man wing who may be ripe for starting role
+ Lives in corners, but can thrive in transition
+ Breakout postseason after iffy first two years
Analysis
Otto Porter, we've been waiting for you. The 22-year-old from Georgetown excelled in the postseason as a surprise stretch 4 tweener. The wing averaged 10 points and eight rebounds in the playoffs while striking from the corners and getting out in the open court.
Porter's ascension was a bit overdue. He was a mess in his injury-riddled rookie season, but he played much better when he was surrounded by talent rather than anchoring a second unit in his sophomore season. A 3-and-D prospect out of college, already RPM considers him an above-average player at his position. He'll need to add muscle if he wants to play more at the 4, but he seems eager to please.
With Wall, Beal and Porter on the roster, it's hard to see why the Wizards don't just try to outrun everybody. Then you remember that Paul Pierce and Nene manned their three and four spots. A big year for Porter lies ahead.
Nene Hilario
Position: Forward
Experience: 13 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Skilled big man who spends too much time on post-ups
+ Playmaker when motivated. Awful from left block
+ Health dictates defensive impact. Fragile
Analysis
It's hard to depend on the guy anymore. The 33-year-old has missed 30 percent of his regular-season games over the past four seasons and basically can't bring it come playoff time. The Wizards have to put Nene on the Tim Duncan regimen at this point. He shouldn't be playing in 13 back-to-backs like he did last season.
In some ways, he's the Dwyane Wade of big men. When he's feeling good, he looks great. But when he's gimpy, man, it's hard to watch sometimes. Among the 30 big men who registered at least 200 post-up plays, Nene finished 29th in post-up efficiency, per Synergy. He's especially rough on the left block, where he just can't get enough lift anymore to draw fouls or create separation. He's a good passer out of the block, so it's not all bad when he goes down there. But he should be featured there less if Otto Porter and Jared Dudley get some minutes at the 4.
Nene posts solid numbers on the defensive end, but he's stopped trying to block shots and he's no longer rebounding. He was almost unplayable in the playoffs thanks to shoulder and ankle issues. It's probably best for both parties if he takes regular time off rather than trying to play through bumps and bruises.
Marcin Gortat
Position: Center
Experience: 8 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Bulldozing big man who drives to the rim at elite level
+ Solid baseline jumper, but mostly lives in paint
+ Good defender who won't chase blocks
Analysis
Gortat hasn't made the Wizards look dumb after signing him to a five-year, $60 million deal. The 6-foot-11 Polish Hammer bludgeons the basket area with rim runs and offensive boards. He shot 56.6 percent from the floor in the regular season and 62.8 percent in the playoffs, underlining his ability to convert high-value shots.
Simply put, he's a burly big man straight out of the 1990s. His range only extends to the foul line, but that's OK as long as he's surrounded by shooters. That's usually not the case. The basket area can get really congested with another paint-dwelling big man like Nene, but that's not Gortat's fault.
He's getting up there in age, however. He'll turn 32 in February, and he fell apart in the Eastern Conference semifinals without a healthy John Wall to feed him down low. With so much of Gortat's game depending on mobility, it has to be concerning for the Wizards, who have no real backup this season. Gortat has been durable, but those miles add up.
Reserves
Ramon Sessions
Position: Guard
Experience: 8 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Nomad point guard who attacks the rim in pick-and-roll
+ Gets out in transition and to the line. Unreliable jumper
+ Not a pure point guard. Only asset on one side of floor
Analysis
Sessions is always on the move. Traded once again midseason, this time from Sacramento, he hopes to land a permanent gig in Washington as the scorer off the bench. He's a totally different flavor than Andre Miller, whom he was traded for last season. Sessions is an attacker who gets into the paint and gets to the free throw line.
Sessions generated 5.2 free throw attempts per 36 minutes last season, which was well above-average for his position. Without great size, Sessions instead draws contact by theatrics and fearlessness. He's not a great finisher at the rim (52.4 percent last season), but he doesn't get blocked very often and he gets to the charity stripe. He's not a natural passer, but in Washington, they have Wall for that.
Sessions was much better after leaving the toxic Sacramento environment. He'll try to prove his hot 3-point stroke at the end of last season wasn't a fluke, but we're not betting on it. SCHOENE sees his 3-point percentage falling to 30.9 percent after shooting 40 percent in the playoffs and 40.6 percent in Washington. If he can keep it up, the Wizards will be thrilled with their investment. He's better than what he showed in Sacramento.
Jared Dudley
Position: Forward
Experience: 8 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Great floor-spacer who can guard multiple positions
+ Deadly from the right side. Not a slasher
+ Well-liked role player who understands limitations
Analysis
What a year for Dudley. After being a Doc Rivers salary dump, a healthier Dudley became one of the most impactful bench players in the NBA. He registered a 2.4 RPM last season, which was top-20 at his position, and raised his PER from 8.9 in 2013-14 to 12.3 in 2014-15.
Dudley is an elite 3-point shooter who sported one of the top jumpers on the right side in the NBA. He shot 60.9 percent on right elbow jumpers and 58.6 percent on short corners from the right side, per Vorped.com. Though his 3-point shot wasn't quite as sharp, he can hit it from just about anywhere.
No one will confuse him for Gerald Green as an athlete, but he's a much smarter player who keeps mistakes to a minimum. Dudley had back surgery in July and should miss the start of the season, so there's risk here for the Wizards. But at the cost of a second-round pick, the Wizards should be happy with their investment after Paul Pierce left to reunite with Rivers. Expect him to spotlight at the four at times.
Martell Webster
Position: Forward
Experience: 10 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Injury-riddled wing who seems older than he is
+ Former 3-and-D role player coming off lost season
+ May have already lost spot to Otto Porter
Analysis
I swear he's just 28 years old. The brittle Webster has a big opportunity on his hands, with Jared Dudley potentially missing time with back surgery. After playing just 32 games last season and basically being benched for the playoffs, Webster needs to win back his spot in the rotation with youngsters Otto Porter and also Kelly Oubre on the roster.
The gory details: Webster was the single-worst small forward last season, according to the lens of real plus-minus. He's young enough to still carve out another role in the NBA, but as a guy who debuted in the NBA as an 18-year-old, the odometer isn't inspiring. The ship might have sailed in Washington as the team keeps adding players at his position.
Kris Humphries
Position: Forward
Experience: 11 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Strong role player who cleans the glass
+ Knockdown mid-range shot begging for expansion
+ Adequate defender, but not a rim protector
Analysis
Humphries is what he is: a solid rebounder who can hit a jumper every once in a while. There are some whispers he may stretch beyond the 3-point line. He's certainly one of the top candidates for that migration; he made 52.4 percent of his 84 long 2s at the top of the key, per Vorped.com shot tracking. Few players are more reliable from 20 feet.
Humphries doesn't roll to the rim, and he can't score in the post. But he's a throwback big man who brings average defense to the block. You could do worse as a placeholder in the middle. His top statistical comps in the SCHOENE database recall names like Antonio Davis and P.J. Brown. And that sounds about right.
Alan Anderson
Position: Guard
Experience: 6 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Older swingman who drains corner 3s
+ Elite off the pass. Much more proficient from right side
+ Solid defender, but too slow to stay with younger wings
Analysis
The Wizards beefed up their wing spot with Anderson, who signed a one-year deal with the club. Anderson's a corner specialist at this late stage in his career. The 32-year-old made 43.4 percent of his tries in the corner pocket, a place he'll call home in DC.
With a brittle wing rotation made up of Bradley Beal, Otto Porter and Martell Webster, Anderson figures to have a starting gig at some point in the season. He became much more comfortable as a role player last season as his assisted percentage on 2-point field goals jumped to 54.1 percent from the 43.6 percent rate. Consequently, he saw his field-goal percentages soar across the board.
Defensively, Anderson posted high marks in RPM (sixth-best among shooting guards) and performed well in Synergy defensive metrics, but Anderson's value will be in his ability to space the floor. Turning 33 in training camp, Anderson can't be depended on to be a defensive stopper. A nice pickup for the Wizards.
Drew Gooden
Position: Forward
Experience: 13 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Serviceable veteran backup who can step out for 3s
+ Solid rebounder, but horrible finisher around rim
+ Entering twilight of career
Analysis
Once an offensive rebounding machine, Gooden has followed the Rasheed Wallace career path and become a stretch 4 who doesn't do much of the other big man tasks. He'll be 34 this season and can't jump anymore, so his effectiveness in the paint is just about nil.
Gooden shot an abysmal 43.8 percent at the rim last season, which would be impressive if he was blindfolded. He was not. Luckily, Gooden has some value as a 3-point shooter who pulls the defender out of the paint. He shot 39 percent on his 59 trifecta attempts, but he doesn't make them enough to really scare defenders.
Gooden isn't a rim protector, which limits his ability to play the 5. He allowed opponents to shoot 55.4 percent at the rim when he was nearby, which was the worst rate among all Wizard bigs. Gooden has the talent to have a double-double every once in a while, but the Wizards better hope it never comes to that.
Kelly Oubre
Position: Forward
Experience: Rookie
2015 draft profile
Scouting report
+ Extremely long teenager with raw skills
+ Promising jump shot, but ways away from 3-and-D guy
+ Defensive potential is intriguing
Analysis
Given his age and position, Oubre probably won't make his presence felt in the nation's capital until 2015-16. At 19 years old, Oubre was predictably all over the place at summer league, scoring 30 points one game and missing 12 of 17 shots with six fouls in the next.
Oubre can blossom into a 3-and-D player down the line, but shooting 35.8 percent on 95 attempts at Kansas isn't lighting the world on fire. For what it's worth, the lefty shot 25 percent from deep in Vegas this summer. He'll play behind Otto Porter and Martell Webster, who were similarly talented at 19 years old.
Garrett Temple
Position: Guard
Experience: 5 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Defensive combo guard who has developed into corner threat
+ Can't create for himself or others
+ Uses long arms to create gobs of steals
Analysis
After trying to become a point guard for a couple years, Temple found his niche as a defensive specialist who can spot up in the corner. He has extremely long arms for his position, and he uses them to intercept passing lanes and poke the ball out from unsuspecting ball-handlers.
Last season Temple tallied 2.1 steals per 36 minutes, which helped anchor the Wizards' top defensive squad. Only problem is that he can't do much on offense but stand and hit a corner 3. He shot 38.9 percent from there (mostly coming from the right corner), but he's not a threat to take anyone off the dribble. Consider Temple a poor man's Thabo Sefolosha.
Gary Neal
Position: Guard
Experience: 5 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Journeyman microwave scorer who lays down on defense
+ Parking lot range, sky-high confidence
+ Highly combustible, both good and bad
Analysis
Joining his fifth team since 2013, Neal has had a tough time finding a home since leaving San Antonio. He's a gunner through and through, scoring 16.4 points per 36 minutes while in Charlotte and Minnesota last season. However, he shot just 37.4 percent overall and got torched defensively. The Hornets traded him in February a couple days after shooting 0-for-6 against Philadelphia.
Neal is basically the opposite of Andre Miller, who served as John Wall's backup at the start of last season. Though Neal's talents are strictly limited to offense, both Charlotte and Minnesota couldn't churn out offenses with an efficiency above 100 points per 100 possessions. That's sad.
DeJuan Blair
Position: Center
Experience: 6 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Stocky, unreliable big man on fringe of NBA
+ Once an elite offensive rebounder, but can't stay healthy
+ Played just 180 minutes last season
Analysis
Two years removed from starting games for the San Antonio Spurs, Blair finds himself on the outside looking in. He played just 29 games last season and was away from the team due to personal reasons for much of March. He was inactive for the playoffs.
Blair used to be an elite rebounder who could play solid defense because of his extremely long arms. But he was basically unplayable last season. The 26-year-old was woefully out of shape and fouled his opponents 41 times in 180 minutes while turning the ball over 13 times against just 26 field goals. If he can't get back on track soon, Blair will be washed out of the NBA well before he turns 30. The Wizards own a team option for $2 million in 2016-17, which they, at this point, have no reason to pick up. Blair finished second-to-last in RPM among centers.