Can West Virginia, Gonzaga, Duke and others live up to the hype?
— -- Forty years ago, Al McGuire's Marquette Warriors upset a heavily favored North Carolina squad led by All-American Phil Ford, who was backed by a crew that connected on 53.7 percent of its shots in 1976-77.
"If you haven't broken your nose in basketball, you haven't really played," McGuire told Sports Illustrated's Frank Deford prior to that season, his last on the sidelines.
McGuire's team embraced the gritty style he preached and belied the odds and talent of a daunting Tar Heels squad.
That's the only way to topple a contender and erase the previous hype surrounding an opponent.
For the first two months of the 2016-17 season, West Virginia bullied its schedule with a guillotine-choke approach to defense, forcing turnovers on 31.1 percent of its opponents' possessions. Baylor committed 29 turnovers in a loss to the Mountaineers.
On Saturday, however, Kansas State -- like Temple, Texas Tech and Oklahoma in previous outings -- stood tall early and handed West Virginia its second consecutive loss and fourth overall.
Kansas State committed a turnover on its first possession when Nathan Adrian intercepted a pass and fired an errant dart to Daxter Miles that landed in the stands. Past opponents had caved to WVU's suffocating, belligerent defense.
Not Kansas State. A few possessions after that early mishap, Dean Wade hit a jump shot from the corner. Then, he dunked on an alley-oop from Barry Brown.
As the game progressed, the Wildcats developed this "That all you got?" bravado, even as West Virginia launched a 16-1 run in the first half. It was the same swagger on display when Oklahoma's Jordan Woodard took the Mountaineers to Rucker Park with his game-winning drive in overtime last week. Texas Tech's Zach Smith also had late confidence against West Virginia. Temple's? Obi Enechionyia, too.
College basketball's Mike Tyson seemed more docile, less insurmountable in those matchups.
And West Virginia is not alone. Some of the teams that danced into the New Year amid high praise and hopes hit some turbulence in the first few weeks of 2017. Others keep soaring.
With March a few months away, one question lingers: Should you believe the hype?
Well, we're to help you answer those questions.
West Virginia
Should you believe it? No
Listen, West Virginia continues to ruin offensive schemes with a defense few can stomach. "Press Virginia" is real. The issue for this Mountaineers squad persists, though. If it can't turn you over and disrupt your plans, your odds of victory increase. Yes, this is a team that has forced turnovers on 31.1 percent of its opponents' possessions, a mark that includes Baylor's 29-turnover affair against the Mountaineers. But check out their opponents' turnover percentages in their four losses: Temple (26 percent), Texas Tech (18.6 percent), Oklahoma (15.2 percent) and Kansas State (21.3 percent). This is not a squad that has found a way to decipher opponents who do a better job than most against its pressure. That's a poor formula for a deep run to the late stages of the NCAA tournament.
Gonzaga
Should you believe it? Yes
Stop it, OK? Stop with the Gonzaga bashing. Stop with the nonsense about the West Coast Conference and the NCAA tournament r?sum?, one without a Final Four appearance. You're wrong about Gonzaga. The Bulldogs deserve the hype. They've earned the hype. Ever heard of Zach Collins? He's the NBA prospect who comes off Mark Few's bench. Przemek Karnowski is healthy. Three transfers who starred for high-major programs -- Johnathan Williams, Jordan Mathews and Nigel Williams-Goss -- boost this talented squad. The Bulldogs beat Arizona. Yes, no Allonzo Trier in that game. But they had the big bodies to hold Lauri Markkanen to a 4-for-14 clip. Iowa State, Florida and Saint Mary's lost to Gonzaga, too. Few's program is real. Don't knock it just because you won't stay up late to watch the West Coast's most intriguing show.
Duke
Should you believe it? No
OK, no more excuses. No more talk about injuries and Mike Krzyzewski's absence. Yes, they matter. But NC State? Really? This is where the hype train stops. Throughout the season, the natural response to all concerns about Duke by those of us who picked the Blue Devils to breeze to another national title involved a prepared statement with alternative facts: Just wait until Harry Giles enters the mix, just wait until Grayson Allen returns, just wait until they click, just wait until ... no more of that. Yes, we all know Duke is a mess performing far below the projected preseason levels. Yes, we all know the Blue Devils could evolve into a force just before the NCAA tournament arrives. But what evidence suggests they will? The transitive application is always dangerous. But the Blue Devils just lost to an NC State team that Illinois beat by 14 points. At Cameron Indoor. What? They've suffered four losses in the ACC, a league with a top tier that's beginning to leave Duke behind. So let's stop the hype train until Duke provides a reason to restart it.
UCLA
Should you believe it? Yes
The Bruins lost two games this season. Let's examine both. In the team's Pac-12 opener, Dillon Brooks hit a Dillon Brooks game winner to stop the Bruins. Then, last week, UCLA prepped for Arizona until ... wait a minute, that's ... that's Allonzo Trier's music! That's Allonzo Trier's music! Listen, the emotionally charged Arizona team that rumbled through Pauley Pavilion less than 24 hours after the Wildcats announced Trier had regained his eligibility would have dismissed any team in the country. The bottom line is that a ridiculous game winner on the road and a roster Steve Alford could not have anticipated contributed to UCLA's two losses. This is still a team with Pac-12 title hopes and Final Four aspirations. This is still the No. 1 offense on KenPom.com. Yes, its sub-100 defense (125th on KenPom.com) is troubling. But it's a risk to doubt a team with the best point guard in America, Lonzo Ball, and a win over Kentucky at Rupp Arena, which shattered a streak John Calipari's squad had defended for more than two years.
Maryland
Should you believe it? No
There's an old saying among Maryland fans: "How dare you criticize our squad? That's our job." OK, we just invented this phrase, but it's true. Maryland fans spend every season defending their program against the blunt opinions of outsiders while privately wondering when their favorite team will fail them. Maryland has offered few reasons for pessimism in 2016-17. The Terps own a 5-1 Big Ten record, good for a first-place tie with Wisconsin in the league standings. But ... hold on, folks. Yes, this is a top-35 defense led by Melo Trimble and Anthony Cowan. This is also, however, a high-turnover offense (20.2 percent turnover rate) that will see Minnesota (twice), Purdue, Wisconsin (road) and Northwestern (road) all by Feb. 22. This is an impressive start. Far too early to buy the hype, though. Let's see how the Terps handle the month ahead.
Purdue
Should you believe it? Yes
Matt Painter found an elite formula with this season's Purdue squad. It starts with Caleb Swanigan, who leads the nation in double-doubles. The 6-foot-9 big man is a force who swallows defensive rebounds (33.3 percent) and enjoys the best big man in America title right now. The Boilermakers have made 40.6 percent of their 3-pointers. They're also No. 1 in Big Ten play in free throw percentage (81.5 percent) and shooting percentage inside the arc (54.8 percent). They've won their only matchup with Wisconsin and they're projected to win their remaining games on KenPom.com. Combine that with a top-20 defense, and you're talking about a squad that could win the Big Ten and skate to the second weekend (and further) in the NCAA tournament.
Steve Masiello's embarrassing, hypocritical rant
Not only did Manhattan's Steve Masiello call society "fraudulent" after his team's 81-68 loss to Siena on Sunday, he also offered this assessment of millennials: "Nothing is real so when things don't go the way people want them to, people really struggle with if it's not 75 degrees and sunny and the stars aren't aligned, if it's not exactly 4 p.m., they didn't get exactly eight hours of beauty sleep ... young people today struggle with it. Our society struggles with that, and for me -- I can't speak for other coaches -- I see it more than ever."
A few issues with Masiello's take. First, a coach who fabricated his r?sum? to get the South Florida job should never use the word "fraudulent" in a public space. Here's the other thing: Stop bad-mouthing "millennials" and their issues with adversity. It's not like coaches come from a generation that always held it together when adversity arrived. The brawls and drama of the 1980s and 1990s -- and the list of players who continue to come forward and tell us how much they hated playing for or with a former coach or teammate -- suggest they did not. Here's the other thing: Masiello fails to recognize some of the hurdles players overcame to compete at this level. Are some coddled? Sure. Don't put every kid in the same boat, though. That's foolish.
Creighton lost to a Marquette team on the rise
The simple response to Creighton's 102-94 home loss to Marquette on Saturday is to assume Maurice Watson Jr.'s season-ending knee injury turned the Bluejays into an afterthought in the Big East. That's just not true. They're certainly not the same team without Watson on the floor, but they finished with 1.18 points per possession and connected on 50 percent of their shots inside the arc on Saturday. But Marquette put together a ridiculous 1.24 PPP display and stopped Creighton's five-game winning streak.
This is a Marquette squad that blew a double-digit halftime lead in a loss to Butler before securing Saturday's victory. The Golden Eagles should own a four-game winning streak right now.
So don't dismiss Creighton. The Bluejays scored 94 points on Saturday, and few teams in their league would have stopped a miraculous Marquette squad that couldn't miss.
What's wrong with USC?
After starting the year 14-0, Andy Enfield's squad has lost four of its past seven games. Every loss came against a top-60 team on KenPom.com. But the Trojans will continue to struggle if they fail to correct their ballhandling and rebounding woes. They've committed turnovers on 18.1 percent of their possessions in league play, ninth in the Pac-12, and they've also allowed Pac-12 opponents to collect 32.6 percent of their missed shots (10th in the league).
The Trojans must address these flaws prior to their difficult Oregon-UCLA-Arizona stretch in mid-February.