Winslow's athleticism, versatility could make him NBA star

— -- To help readers get to know top NBA draft prospects, Insider offers a 360-degree look at many of them in a concise and thorough scouting report featuring three expert perspectives: Kevin Pelton (analytics), Fran Fraschilla (scouting) and Chad Ford (NBA front offices). Here's a look at   Justise Winslow .  

WARP Projection: 1.6 (32nd among players in top 100)
Comparables: Thaddeus Young (97.7), Luol Deng (97.5), Maurice Harkless (97.3), Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (96.5)
Strengths: None
Weaknesses: PF%

The analytics perspective

I recently went into great detail about Winslow's three different seasons with Chad Ford. The quick version: Winslow rated as a late first-round pick (1.3 projected WARP) during nonconference play, as a second-round pick (0.8) while battling injuries early in the ACC schedule and as a lottery pick (2.3) over the final 20 games of Duke's schedule, including the NCAA tournament.

Based on the assessment of scouts and my own observations, I'm inclined to believe we saw the real Winslow over the last 20 games, though it's easy for fans who saw him late in the season and not early to get carried away with his potential. The suggestion that he should be the No. 1 overall pick is a bit of a reach. Despite making 41.8 percent of his 3-pointers, Winslow is an iffy shooter (he shot 64.1 percent from the free-throw line, though that mark also improved over the course of the season) who doesn't excel at creating his own offense in half-court settings.

Still, if Winslow utilizes his athleticism on defense and the glass as he did in the second half of the season, he's likely to be a capable starter even if he doesn't develop offensively, with the potential to become a star if he can grow on offense like the somewhat similar Kawhi Leonard.

-- Kevin Pelton

The scouting perspective

Outside of his teammate Tyus Jones, nobody helped his NBA stock more than Winslow did in the NCAA tournament. Because of his versatility, his competitiveness and the Blue Devils' short bench, Winslow positively affected Duke's success on both ends of the floor throughout his team's championship run.

The question now for an NBA team: Is the versatility a help or hindrance as he works to be an NBA small forward?

Let's first play devil's advocate. First of all, although only 6-foot-6, Winslow is a powerful athlete who bulls his way to the basket in a James Harden-esque manner. And his strength and length (he has a 6-11 wingspan) is even more dangerous when he is handling the ball in the open court. However, scoring at the rim in the NBA at his size will be problematic. That is especially true since he has not yet needed to develop an "in-between game" (mastering pull-up jump shots and/or floaters) at the college level.

The other concern that NBA teams will have about Winslow is his ability to shoot the ball from the NBA 3-point line. While his 42 percent rate was more than acceptable this season -- and his shot has definitely improved since high school -- can Winslow count on that becoming an offensive weapon from the perimeter on a consistent basis? He made 27 percent of 2-point jump shots this season. One last hint to that answer might be in his below-average 64 percent free-throw rate this season.

Finally, NBA teams will weigh whether much of Winslow's success was based playing as an advantageous undersized power forward, where his athleticism created major headaches for bigger, slower opponents. He was forced to play there once Duke's rotation dwindled to eight scholarship players. So, in the last five games of the season, he played there 57 percent of the time and his versatility shined. But it will not be his long-term home in the league.

Now Winslow's positives.

He is as much a winning player as any player in this draft. From high school to USA Basketball to Duke, the guy wins championships. That's more than a coincidence and an intangible that he wears like a $3,000 suit.

And his age is a huge plus as well. Winslow will play most of his rookie season in the NBA as a 19 year old. Teams love that kind of potential because the younger a physically and mentally ready player arrives in the league, the higher his long-term ceiling usually is.

In this draft, Winslow is safely in the first 10 picks. Given his athleticism and intensity, Winslow will be a high-energy role player, at worst. If he develops into a Leonard or a Jimmy Butler, his future team will be very pleased.

-- Fran Fraschilla

The front-office perspective

Winslow is the hottest name among college wings at the moment. Blessed with an NBA body and athleticism, a relentless motor on both ends of the floor and a surprising 3-point shot, it's been Winslow, not Jahlil Okafor, who looked like Duke's best player down the stretch.

Winslow's toughness, his knack for being in the mix of every play and the leadership intangibles he brings to the table are all reminiscent of a young Kidd-Gilchrist. However, unlike Kidd-Gilchrist, Winslow has a much better 3-point shot at the moment (although his 2-point percentage is pretty miserable). Scouts who really love him wonder if he's the next Leonard.

If his ceiling is Leonard and his floor is MKG, he's going to be one heck of a prospect and should go somewhere in the No. 4-to-6 range in the draft.

"He's just a man out there," one scout said of Winslow. "I love the hunger that he plays the game with. He's hungry on offense. He's hungry on defense. He wants to destroy you. His skill set offensively is still pretty raw. But it's that fire that I think gets him drafted. Stanley Johnson is inconsistent with it. It's tough to tell what [Mario] Hezonja has. Kelly Oubre is more of a cool customer. But Winslow? He wants to attack you every second he's out there. I can't see how he fails in the NBA."

-- Chad Ford