$5B Over Budget, Weather Satellites' Launch Still Not in Sight

June 6, 2006 — -- Government officials have given a grim forecast for state-of-the-art weather satellites that were supposed to save lives.

The trouble-plagued program is not expected to put the first satellites in the sky until late in the year 2013. And no one would be surprised if that prediction proves optimistic.

When the program was first announced, meteorologists jumped with delight at the idea that there would be accurate three-to-seven-day forecasts. Seven years ago, government promotional videos promised the satellites would be "one great step into the future." The global satellites were supposed to orbit the North and South poles, providing earlier forecasts of El Niño conditions and tsunamis.

Authorities would have more time to evacuate residents from coastal areas threatened by hurricanes. American ships at sea would get more accurate forecasts. So would U.S. ground troops planning troop movements in hostile areas.

It all sounds pretty impressive.

But Congress has now been told the program is five years behind schedule and $5 billion over budget. The House Science Committee was stunned.

Rep. Dana Rohrbacher, R-Calif., said: "This is not just mismanagement. This is a catastrophe."

A top official from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration told the committee it is difficult to predict exactly when the satellites will finally go up. That is not what Congress wanted to hear.

Rep. Bart Gordon, D-Tenn., said: "I simply can't understand it. I would be embarrassed to be in your situation and not try to do more."

The satellites rely on sensors to detect atmospheric conditions, but so far they have not been tested successfully. But even though the project is a shambles, the government paid the main contractor, Northrop Grumman, $123 million in performance bonuses.

Johnnie Frazier, the inspector general of the U.S. Department of Commerce, said he could scarcely believe it.

"If I give you 84 percent of the fee when you have a horrible track record, what incentive do you have to try and do better," Frazier said. "I think almost none."

Severe weather experts say until the satellites go up, more lives may be lost because of inadequate forecasts. Greg Forbes of the Weather Channel said: "It's important to get these satellites up as quickly as we can. They would provide tremendous gains in our long-range forecasting."

The delays in launching the satellites is not the only bad news the government has given Congress. Because the project has been so expensive, officials will try to save some money by putting only four satellites into the sky instead of the six that had been planned. Also, the satellites will have fewer sensors, which means they will be about 30 percent less efficient in providing data for weather forecasts.

Congress will be wanting some explanations, and two hearings are scheduled this month. The big question: Is this all we will get from a satellite program that will cost the American taxpayer at least $11 billion?