Will thin be in, or will Sony be out?
CULVER CITY, Calif. -- About $2,500 will buy a 50-inch, high-end Panasonic flat-panel TV, large enough for almost any living room.
Or it will buy an 11-inch Sony sne, smaller than most laptop screens.
Sound crazy? When this tiny television makes its U.S. debut Monday at the Consumer Electronics trade show in Las Vegas, people are expected to line up to see it. That's because it may be the thinnest, brightest and most striking mainstream TV ever sold.
"It's beautiful," says electronics analyst Rosemary Abowd with researcher Pacific Media Associates. "It has a crystal-clear picture," agrees tech analyst Tim Bajarin with researcher Creative Strategies.
Sony uses a new flat-panel technology, called organic light-emitting diode (OLED), to produce a brilliant picture on a screen only 3 millimeters thick. The technology is so new that Sony is barely breaking even on the pricey sets. And the company could lose millions if OLED flounders, as some analysts say it might.
That's the risk of coming to a market early, says independent tech analyst Rob Enderle. It can be worse than arriving too late, because it allows a company's rivals to learn from its mistakes.
Bajarin and other analysts who are more optimistic about OLED's potential say it is always risky to bring out a new technology. "OLED is on track to become the next major flat-panel technology," he says. "It gives them a jump-start on their competitors."
CEO Howard Stringer says his company isn't being premature. "If we didn't release cutting-edge technology early, people would ask, 'Why isn't Sony more innovative?' " he says. "It's in the nature of Sony to raise the game."
Sony has a lot to lose. The Japanese electronics giant has invested more than $78 million in OLED, which it thinks may eventually replace plasma and liquid crystal display (LCD) as the dominant TV technology. The set, the first of its kind on the market, will be available at Sony Style stores in the next few days. If all goes as expected over the next five years, 2.8 million OLED TVs will be sold in 2013, says tech analyst Paul Semenza at researcher iSuppli. That's a promising opportunity for Sony, which has lost market share in music players, video game systems and other types of TVs in recent years. "Sony desperately needs a new (television) technology," Semenza says. "They haven't had a blockbuster since the Trinitron" cathode ray tube (CRT) televisions of the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s, he says.
But Sony's bet could be a disaster, since there's a chance OLED will flop, Abowd says. Plasma and LCD televisions are getting better and cheaper so quickly that OLED may not be able to catch up, she says. If that happens, Sony is likely to lose millions — and its reputation as a market leader.
Rivals have decided that the risk isn't worth it. Samsung, Sharp and others are experimenting with the technology but aren't yet planning to bring any products to market. Toshiba, once Sony's biggest challenger, recently postponed plans for its own OLED set until at least 2010. Stringer says Sony isn't being rash. "We wanted to be the first out with it," he says. "It gives us a sense of momentum."
Wowing the crowd
Sony's first hurdle will be to win over the crowds at the Consumer Electronics Show, one of the world's largest gatherings of electronics makers and sellers. More than 140,000 people are expected to attend this year's CES, where exhibitors will show off everything from cutting-edge car-navigation systems to experimental home theater setups.
Sony's OLED won't be the only one. Samsung will be demonstrating two prototype models, a 14-inch and a 31-inch. "OLED is probably the best technology we see out there in terms of picture quality," says S.I. Lee, a Samsung senior vice president.
But Samsung isn't ready to bring the sets to market. If the 31-inch were commercially available, it would cost $15,000 to $20,000, Lee says. There isn't enough high-definition programming to make such a pricey set worth it, he says. "We want to continue to work on this, to bring the price down to a level that makes sense," he says.
All new products take time and money to develop, but television technology is particularly difficult. It's complicated and tough to manufacture in large quantities. LCD screens were first tested in the 1970s, but were not commonly used in TVs until 30 years later.
OLED, which goes back to the 1970s, is used in a few tiny products today. One of the most common applications is the small, secondary screen on the outside of some flip-style cellphones. (These relatively low-quality OLED screens usually display the time and date when the phone is closed.) But the technology can't yet produce a TV screen size "at a price that will be accepted by the consumer," says Bob Scaglione, senior vice president at TV maker Sharp.
That's why Sharp is betting on LCD. Today at CES, the company is showing off an experimental, 52-inch LCD that's less than 1 inch thick. Samsung, too, will be demonstrating thinner, bigger LCDs, including one monster that's 82 inches.
And LCD has more room to improve. The sets will get at least 40% better than they are today as the technology is refined, Scaglione says. Such improvements are a moving target that OLED manufacturers must constantly chase, Abowd says. And quickly producing larger OLED TVs is crucial, because, "Everyone is looking for the biggest TV they can afford," she says. "I just don't know that (OLED) can get there fast enough."
Sony considered pursuing incremental improvements. But, "Every company has limited resources, so you have to place your bets," Stringer says. "This is a more exciting challenge. We're aiming for bigger fish."
Even if OLED does do well, it will be years before it will really take on plasma and LCD. Sizes won't be comparable until 2012 at the earliest, Bajarin says. By bringing an OLED TV to market now, Sony "is putting a stake in the ground," Semenza says. But an 11-inch set "isn't really a TV. It's a gadget," he says.
"We put it out now because we can," Stringer says. "Look at (Apple CEO) Steve Jobs and his iPhone. Some would say it wasn't really ready, but he wanted to make a statement."
Timing it right
Timing usually isn't enough to cause a product to thrive or flop. But analysts Bajarin and Enderle say history is packed with products that came out before the public was ready for them. In 1984, IBM ibm launched the PCjr, the first PC designed for home use. But few people at the time wanted a computer for their house, Bajarin says. The PCjr sold poorly, and the market for home PCs all but died until the 1990s, he says.
Apple aapl invested more than $100 million in the Newton, a personal digital assistant that came out in 1993. But buggy software and a price starting around $700 made the product a bust, Enderle says. Apple eventually canceled the Newton line, and the PDA market stagnated until Palm palm introduced the Pilot in 1996.
One of the first digital music players, the Diamond Multimedia Rio, raised record industry fears about music piracy when it came out in 1998. But sales of the Rio were mediocre, in part because music downloading was difficult, Enderle says. Diamond underwent a series of restructurings and no longer sells consumer electronics. The music player market finally took off with Apple's 2001 launch of the iPod and iTunes music store.
It's too soon to say whether Sony's OLED TV will be a similar flash in the pan. The company can't afford to stumble. Stringer, the first non-Japanese executive to head Sony, took the top job in 2005 with a mandate to turn around the struggling electronics giant.
Stringer has cut costs and improved Sony's results. Revenue in the most recent quarter rose 12%. But the company continues to have problems, including lackluster sales of its PlayStation 3 video game system.
Sony's bold push into OLED has already generated a reaction. "It's gotten other companies spun up," Semenza says. "I think we'll see others, in Japan and Taiwan, trying to make larger OLEDs."
Will Sony pull off OLED? The company's long-standing reputation and deep pockets will help. "If anyone can do it," Abowd says, "Sony could."