Climate Change Linked to National Security

June 25, 2008 — -- Global warming is likely to increase illegalimmigration, create humanitarian disasters and destabilizeprecarious governments in political hot spots, all of which couldaffect U.S. national security, according to an assessment by U.S.intelligence agencies.

Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and Central and SoutheastAsia are most vulnerable to warming-related drought, flooding,extreme weather and hunger. The intelligence assessment warns ofthe global impact from the spillover: increased migration and"water-related disputes," according to prepared remarks by TomFingar, deputy director of national intelligence for analysis, whowas scheduled to speak before a joint House committee hearing.

"We judge that the most significant impact for the UnitedStates will be indirect and result from climate-driven effects onmany other countries and their potential to seriously affect U.S.national security interests," Fingar stated.

The national intelligence assessment on the national securityimplications of global climate change to 2030 is one of a series ofperiodic intelligence reports that offer the consensus judgment oftop analysts at all 16 U.S. spy agencies on major foreign policy,security and global economic issues. Congress requested the reportlast year.

The assessment deals with the projected effects of climatechange, and not just the negative ones. It predicts modestimprovements in agricultural yields in North America and more waterresources in South America. It predicts that most U.S. allies willhave the means to cope economically. Fingar says, however, thatunspecified "regional partners" could face severe problems.

Fingar states that the quality of the analysis is hampered bythe fact that climate data tend not to focus on specific countriesbut rather on broad global changes.

Africa is among the most vulnerable regions, the report states.An expected increase in droughts there could cut agriculturalyields of rain-dependent crops by up to half in the next 12 years.

Parts of southern and eastern Asia's food crops are vulnerableboth to droughts and floods, with rice and grain crops potentiallyfacing up to a 10 percent decline.

As many as 50 million additional people could face hunger by2020, and the water supply - while larger because of meltingglaciers - will be stressed by growing population and consumption.Between 120 million and 1.2 billion people in Asia "will continueto experience some water stress."

Latin America may experience increased precipitation, possiblycutting tens of millions of people from the ranks of those in wantof water. But from 7 million to 77 million could still be shortwater resources because of population growth.

As Fingar represents it, the assessment strikes a considerablyless ominous tone than a report issued a year ago by the Center forNaval Analyses on the same subject. That report, written by topretired military leaders, drew a direct correlation between globalwarming and the conditions that lead to failed states becoming thebreeding grounds for extremism and terrorism.

"Climate change will provide the conditions that will extendthe war on terror," stated Adm. T. Joseph Lopez, who commandedU.S. and allied peacekeeping forces in Bosnia in 1996.

"Weakened and failing governments, with an already thin marginfor survival, foster the conditions for internal conflicts,extremism and movement toward increased authoritarianism andradical ideologies," the previous report said. "The U.S. will bedrawn more frequently into these situations," stated the report,which drew on 11 retired generals and admirals.

The naval think tank report was a clarion call to reverse globalwarming with a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions.

Fingar's remarks are far more muted. Where the 63-page privatereport mentions terror or terrorism almost 30 times, his 21-pagestatement makes no mention of it. "Conflict" appears about 20times in the think tank report. Fingar mentions "conflict" onlytwice, "disputes" once, and "ethnic clashes" once.