Anxiety Over Space Program Future
March 11, 2003 -- They are wounded — the engineers in Houston, the flight experts in Florida, the workers in Louisiana and the administrators in Virginia.
We've talked to dozens. They are scattered around the country from Washington, D.C., to Los Angeles. They are private contractors, from the military and from NASA. They talk in hushed tones, like the parents of a sick child. It's clear that somewhere within each of them is that unmistakable, nagging question of guilt.
And they are worried. Not only about their immediate future, but the future of the shuttle program.
They fear the Columbia Accident Investigation Board will not be able to find the cause of the shuttle's destruction — and the deaths of all seven crew members. They worry that months will go by. The remaining space shuttle fleet — Atlantis, Endeavor and Discovery — will sit in hangers waiting for a mission.
Space Station, Shuttles in Trouble?
In Washington, the management of NASA tells us the International Space Station is in more trouble than they care to admit. Plans are being made for the current inhabitants to come home this spring. The crew, a Russian and two Americans, will fall to Earth in a small Russian capsule. American astronauts will land on a piece of Earth controlled by the same program that launched Sputnik and triggered the space race.
Then the race will be on to get the shuttle back and save the gradually decaying station before its opponents gather enough strength to scrap it and force a debate on the future of the nation's space program.
It may sound alarmist, but it is very real for people here.
We spoke with an official with the major shuttle contractor this week. His best-case scenario? He hoped that one of his people "screwed up," that the cause of the Columbia disaster would be found, and it would be someone who just didn't do their job. As devastating as that would be, it could be fixed quickly, and the shuttle would fly again soon.
‘Solid Theory’
The investigation is barely off the ground, but it is becoming clear to NASA analysts that to avoid this crippling uncertainty, they need a break. They know enough to realize it is likely they may never determine what caused the shuttle to disintegrate mere minutes before reaching the safety of the Earth's atmosphere.
"They have a solid theory. It's highly probable, but to be sure they need hardware [evidence]," says one official close to the investigation.
As the shuttle entered the Earth's atmosphere it picked up speed, hurtling down at more than 12,000 mph. It began a series of turns designed to make the aircraft slow down. Hot gases more than 2,500 degrees began to build up around the spacecraft's wings. Somehow these hot plasma gases got into the wing near the leading edge close to the fuselage.
As the shuttle banked to the left, the plasma stream found its way into the landing gear wheel well, where the heat cut through wiring and hydraulic lines. From there, ABCNEWS has learned, it burned its way all the way to the back of the wing, cutting the elevon, a control flap, in half.
Costs, Delays of Uncertainty
What they don't know is how the plasma got into the wing. The debris "is beginning to talk to us," says one board member, but so far there are few clues on what started this catastrophic chain of events.
Did the destructive plasma get through a panel or seal in the leading edge? Did it burn through a damaged tile on the underside of the wing? Was the shuttle hit by a piece of space debris? Did insulating foam that fell from the external tank cause serious damage to the shuttle's protective system?
It is the mystery surrounding what engineers call the "initiating event" that gives rise to so much uncertainty.
An unrestricted refit of the spacecraft to cover all possible causes could have serious consequences to the shuttle, NASA, private employees and possibly to the future of the space program. It could cost billions to redesign the three remaining shuttles to protect it from a fate similar to Columbia's.
NASA is already moving to prevent foam from the external fuel tank from breaking off and striking the shuttle. They are also working on ways astronauts could repair the spacecraft in flight. But before the next shuttle flies they will need to know what triggered the events of Feb. 1.
Analyzing Evidence
No doubt the board will report a cause. The military rarely fails to reach a conclusion — any conclusion. The consequences could well be determined by the strength of the analysis and the credibility of the board.
Their best hope is imagery from classified, secret, surveillance programs run by the Defense Department and the National Recognizance Office. The systems look for ballistic missile launches and track missiles entering the atmosphere. A couple of generals got into a dogfight over balancing the risk to national security and the needs of the Columbia Accident Investigation Board.
"It's a real challenge," an Air Force officer admitted.
The military will do some of the analysis and communicate directly with board members who have clearance to some of the nation's most closely guarded secrets. Their work, much of which will never be seen by the public, holds some promise.
There is always hope investigators will get lucky. The search for debris continues. All it takes is one piece — the right piece — to complete this very complicated puzzle.
This week they will shoot foam from the external tank at shuttle tiles to test for damage. They will use a remote camera and a Navy "torpedo" to search a lake for debris. And they will hope for a break.