Will This Be the Year of HDTV?
Jan. 7, 2002 -- It's 2002. Do you know where your high-definition television is?
For years, various groups have been promoting HDTV as the next big thing in home entertainment. By using digital technologies, HDTV promises to deliver superb picture quality — nearly twice the sharpness of current analog broadcasts — as well as other advanced features.
Still, only a tiny fraction of households in the United States own a high-definition TV set. According to the Consumer Electronics Association (CEA), roughly 2.3 million TV sets capable of receiving the new digital TV signals have been sold over the past 3½ years. In comparison, nearly 25 to 27 million ordinary TVs are sold annually.
The adoption of HDTV among consumers has been hampered by what many call the case of "Cs": cost, content, and cable. But some industry experts say that all three factors are being addressed and may finally lead to HDTV's mass consumer adoption soon.
Costly Cutting-Edge TV
Consider cost. Three years ago, an HDTV-capable set could cost as much as $10,000. But Jeff Joseph, vice president of communications for CEA, says that average prices for HDTV sets have fallen roughly 50 percent every year over the past three years. "Consumers can get into digital TV at $1,100," he says.
And at those prices, Joseph says that digital TV sets are becoming "competitive" with analog "big-screen" TVs — those with screens measuring larger than 32 inches. "We're getting to the point where there is only $75 difference between big-screen digital TVs and analog TVs," he says.
And according to Joseph, that has helped fuel sales of digital TVs in 2001. He says that the CEA is confident that their initial projections of 1.2 million unit sales will most likely mushroom another 16 percent, or 1.4 million sets. By the end of this year, total cumulative sales of digital TV sets will top some $8 billion. "In dollar terms, digital TV has been one of the most successful products in the [consumer electronics] industry," he says.
Still, that's a far cry from the tens of millions of regular TV sets that are sold annually. And even Joseph admits that sales really won't take off until another "C" — "content" — is addressed. "[Consumers] want to be able to see movies and sports and TV shows in HDTV," says Joseph. "When they can see that, that's going to be what drives sales."
Concentrating on Content
And much to digital TV proponents' delight, more digital content is indeed on the way.
The Federal Communications Commission has mandated that all U.S. TV stations must begin using the new digital standards and broadcasting frequencies by this May. And by 2006, the radio frequencies used to transmit the old analog TV signals will be completely turned off and revert back to FCC control for other uses.
And according to Chuck Sherman, executive vice president of the National Association of Broadcasters, it seems most stations and TV networks are on track to meet that goal. By NAB's reckoning, some 250 stations that provide TV signals to 90 percent of the country are already set up with the new digital TV broadcasting equipment. And by the May deadline, Sherman believes that close to 400 stations will be HDTV ready, providing for complete nationwide digital TV coverage.
"Programming is one of the key elements to attract consumers to this technology," says Sherman. And he says that the major TV networks have been extremely aggressive in providing that programming.
Not only have special sporting events — such as last summer's U.S. Tennis Open Tournament — been broadcast in HDTV standards, but so have an increasing amount of standard "primetime" TV shows.
By Sherman's estimates, about 15 percent to 20 percent of the total hours of programming broadcasted by the major networks each year have been composed of HDTV signals. "I think there has been over 2,000 hours of HDTV programming," says Sherman. "Compare that to over 25 years ago when color TV standards were introduced and there was only 500 hours of color programming."
Cable Conundrum
Still, proponents say there are a few major hurdles that need to be addressed before HDTV truly takes off as a consumer mass market.
For one, the cable TV industry has yet to get on board with the new digital TV standards. Many cable system operators, such as AOL Time Warner, have so-called digital TV service but they aren't compatible with the TVs that conform to digital broadcast standards as established by the FCC. And the FCC hasn't yet mandated that the cable companies must carry the HDTV signals from the broadcasters.
But even that may be solved soon. Cable operators are already beginning to offer customers HDTV service. Comcast, for example, recently announced that it will offer its 1.3 million customers in the New Jersey and Delaware region HDTV content from ABC, CBS, NBC, HBO and Showtime.
And Cable Labs, the research and development arm of the cable TV industry, announced last week a new software standard that may allow cable's digital TV setups to work with the new digital TV sets.
If the standard becomes widely approved and adopted, it may not be too long before many consumers are saying, "I want my HDTV!"