Terror Threat: 'Safe Havens' Breeding Terrorist Activity

July 17, 2007 — -- A new intelligence report predicts that al Qaeda will intensify efforts to put operatives in the United States and that safe havens have allowed terror groups to plan attacks and to recruit and train radicals around the world.

The latest National Intelligence Estimate says al Qaeda's "central leadership continues to plan high-impact plots."

"We are facing a persistent terrorist enemy led by al Qaeda that remains driven and intent on attacking the homeland and that continues to adapt and improve its capabilities," White House homeland security adviser Frances Townsend told reporters after the report's key findings were released today.

The NIE is compiled from intelligence gathered by the 16 spy agencies maintained by the federal government. A portion of the report was declassified for the public.

Pakistan: Safe Haven

"We assess the group has protected or regenerated key elements of its homeland attack capability, including: a safe haven in the Pakistan Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), operational lieutenants and its top leadership," according to the estimate.

"We see a firming up of their capability, primarily because of the safe haven," one official said at a briefing on the report. Said another, "The existence of this safe haven is critical to their ability to train and to plan."

ABC News has reported on the concern over those tribal regions in Pakistan. Intelligence sources say that little has been done to take down terrorists using the regions as a nerve center for training and planning.

Sunday, reports flowed out of the North Waziristan tribal region, an area known to be hospitable to radical groups, that pro-Taliban militants had pulled out of a peace accord the government had forged in the fall.

"Any place in the world, whether it's Pakistan or Iraq, or Somalia where al Qaeda or its affiliates have a space where they can train, recruit, indoctrinate and experiment, that creates a danger for this country," Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff told ABC last week.

'Global Reach'

But Townsend insisted that the White House had taken steps to clamp down on al Qaeda's "global reach."

"We are strengthening our cooperation with partners in key regions to undermine al Qaeda's attempts to tap into and to co-opt regional networks for their own strategic purpose," she said.

Townsend cited Pakistan as an example: "We continue to work with President [Pervez] Musharraf and the Pakistani government to capture key al Qaeda operatives and pressure al Qaeda and the Taliban in the Federally Administrated Tribal Areas."

Noting that there have been several attempts on Musharraf's life, she said, "We will continue to press them [Pakistani leaders] to take action to ensure that no part of Pakistan remains a safe haven for terrorists."

The document also states that al Qaeda has been damaged and "constrained" since Sept. 11, but adds, "We are concerned, however, that this level of international cooperation may wane as 9/11 becomes a more distant memory and perceptions of the threat diverge."

In a news conference last week, President Bush said, "There is a perception in the coverage that al Qaeda may be as strong today as they were prior to Sept. 11. That's just simply not the case."

"Because of the actions we have taken," he said, "al Qaeda is weaker today than they would have been. They are still a threat. They are still dangerous. And that is why it is important that we succeed in Afghanistan and Iraq and anywhere else we find them. That's our strategy — is to stay on the offense against al Qaeda."

Al Qaeda in Iraq

The NIE also notes that al Qaeda seeks to enhance its capabilities through working with regional terrorist groups.

"We assess that al Qaeda will probably seek to leverage the contacts and capabilities of al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), its most visible and capable affiliate and the only one known to have expressed a desire to attack the homeland."

"In addition, we assess that its association with AQI helps al Qaeda to energize the broader Sunni extremist community, raise resources and to recruit and indoctrinate operatives, including for homeland attacks," the report said.

"There is no question — based on the statements of [Osama] bin Laden himself, not to mention others in al Qaeda — that they regard Iraq as the central front in the war on terror," Townsend said.

Reid Reacts

But the top Democrat in the Senate pointed to the situation in Iraq as fuel on the terrorism fire.

"The NIE also demonstrates that the current situation in Iraq has helped to energize al Qaeda," Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., said in a statement. "Changing our strategy in Iraq and narrowing our military mission to countering al Qaeda terrorism — as a bipartisan majority in the Senate now favors — would be the single greatest thing we could do to undermine al Qaeda's ability to use Iraq as a recruiting and propaganda tool fueling the growth of regional terrorist groups."

Reid also said the Bush administration "has failed in its most basic responsibility — to capture or kill Osama bin Laden and Ayman Zawahiri, the men who orchestrated the 9/11 attacks."

Last week, the Senate voted to allow the State Department double the reward money for bin Laden's capture to $50 million and require a report every 90 days by the secretary of defense to Congress on the hunt for the terror leader.

Townsend addressed the concern over bin Laden's ability to elude authorities, saying: "There should be no doubt in anyone's mind that capturing or killing bin Laden continues to be the highest priority for this country."

The NIE also states that al Qaeda will continue to seek and acquire chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear weapons "and would not hesitate to use them if it develops what it deems is sufficient capability."

Other Terror Groups

The intelligence finding has a brief mention on Hezbollah, Lebanon's prominent Islamic radical group, noting that it "may be more likely to consider attacking the homeland over the next three years if it perceives the United States as posing a direct threat to the group or Iran."

The NIE also mentions radicalization and extremists acting on their own. The estimate notes that this "internal Muslim terrorist threat is not likely to be as severe as it is in Europe."

Chertoff spoke to that concern last week in his interview with ABC News, saying, "We're increasingly looking at Europe as the threat of homegrown European radicals increases and also the danger that they are getting trained in either person or over the Internet."

ABC News' Z. Byron Wolf contributed to this report.