Tony Blair Interview: Complete Transcript

Dec. 10, 2006 — -- QUESTION: Mr. Prime Minister, thank you very much for doing this.

Both you and President Bush embraced this Iraq study group report today, but isn't it a repudiation of the course that you and the president have followed?

BLAIR: I don't think it's a repudiation of the basic mission, which is to try and make sure that the Iraqi people's will is done and that they're able to have a proper functioning government and democracy.

But what it does call for, rightly, which is what, in an event, we're working on, is to make sure that we have all of our strategies and situations changed, because what you've now got is a different type of conflict there, basically a sectarian conflict between Shia and Sunni and it's being provoked by terrorism and sectarianism.

QUESTION: Isn't that a sign that the Iraqi people may not want...

BLAIR: This is one thing that's really interesting, actually. No, I don't think it is. But the purpose of the terrorism and the destruction and the chaos is to force them into that position.

But when the Iraqis came and voted, 70 percent of them, which, after all, is a higher turnout than either in the U.S. or the U.K.

QUESTION: Much higher.

BLAIR: And they voted explicitly for a nonsectarian government. The government was formed on that basis. You had Sunni, Shia, Kurds in there.

Now, because of what has happened over the past year, and this is what terrorism does -- the purpose of terrorism is not the act that kills the people simply. It is to produce a chain of consequences and hatred and division from that, but then seeps the will of people to come together and makes them divide.

QUESTION: And the report says that there are Shia and Kurdish leaders who are not committed to national reconciliation. There are large parts of the army, large parts of the police forces who are more loyal to their ethnic or religious group than the nation.

BLAIR: But this is why, when I was talking about the evolution of our strategy, this is what we've got to address, because my view is that the majority of those people, they don't want to be in that position.

But if they can't see the government in Iraq gripping the situation and moving it forward, then they default to sectarian positions.

So what we've got to do, and I think the report very helpfully sets this out, whether it's on reconciliation or security or force capability, both army and police, or on the governance and the basic capability on the economy and other areas like that, there needs to be a coherent plan that the government signs up, that we support, and that then takes…

QUESTION: And it lays out a very ambitious plan for the Iraqi government, but, also, says that if the Iraqi government doesn't meet it, the United States and, by implication, the United Kingdom should withdraw its support.

BLAIR: It's important that we make it clear to the Iraqi government we support a nonsectarian future for Iraq. We're not supporting a future for Iraq that is about either breaking it up or having a situation in which sectarian factions fight each other.

And I think what is interesting about the report is it sets out in a lot of detail, as you say, exactly what is necessary to produce that greater capability, and that's what we've got to work on.

QUESTION: And if they don't meet it, you'd be willing to leave.

BLAIR: Well, I think to be absolutely blunt about this, we have to make sure this works and I don't think, at the moment, this is a kind of hypothesizing if it doesn't work. It's got to be made to work, because the consequence, as they said, is strategic failure.

QUESTION: How much time do we have?

BLAIR: We are in a situation where we need to act urgently, in my view. Now, let's be clear, we are doing things. For example, down in the south of the country, we have gone through Basra now, half of Basra, with the Iraqi forces, putting the Iraqi forces in charge, bringing in reconstruction and development. It's working pretty well.

If it continues to work well, we will be able to allow the Iraqi forces to take over the security control in Basra.

Already, in two out of the four provinces in the south of Iraq, they are in control.

The real problem, frankly, is in and around the Baghdad area. That's the really critical issue. And then we've got to make sure that we put together, as I say, that capability, particularly in the Iraqi armed forces, that allows Prime Minister Maliki to assert his control over the capitol city.

QUESTION: But he's been resisting our calls for reform, U.S. calls for reform in Baghdad.

The report says the Baghdad strategy has basically failed. Senator McCain said today that this report is a recipe for defeat, because it doesn't include massive increases of troops in Baghdad to secure Baghdad.

Do you agree?

BLAIR: Well, there are two ways you can do this. One way is you can do what Senator McCain is suggesting and you can boost the American forces there.

QUESTION: Are you open to that?

BLAIR: Well, I think the problem is the problem the report identifies, which is that, in the end, after we learned, when we did this Baghdad mission, when we began this process of trying to take back control of Baghdad a few months ago, the whole purpose was to surge American forces in Baghdad and then to put the Iraqi forces in control, so as we have done or managed to do recently successfully down in the south, where we have a different set of problems.

The problem is this. If, when you surge the American forces, the Iraqi capability isn't there to come in behind it, then your respite is only temporary. Do you see what I mean?

So, actually, although I totally understand what Senator McCain is saying, I think you've got to build the Iraqi capability. I think this is the key thing. And there are gaps in training, equipping, command and control, which, for all the progress that we've made, and we have made significant process with the Iraqi forces, we've got…

QUESTION: Isn't that exactly what the United States has been doing for three years?

BLAIR: Well, it has been doing it, but, you know, let's not ignore some of the progress that's been made. I mean, for example, down in the south, where you've got the 10th division of the Iraqi army, they are capable in two out of the four provinces.

When, recently, the extremists overran Al Amara, OK, the British forces came and camped outside the city, but it was the Iraqi forces that went back in and took control and they did take control and they kept control.

QUESTION: But to be clear, you don't think we should be discussing any kind of withdrawal support, any kind of withdrawal of troops right now.

BLAIR: I think we've got a plan to succeed and I think that if we start saying to the people that we're fighting in Iraq that we're ready to get out, irrespective of the success of the mission, I think that would be very serious for us.

QUESTION: You've also been behind the call for a big diplomatic push, as well. Do you think you can convince President Bush to go along with you and your recommendation, the report's recommendation that Iran and Syria have to be engaged?

BLAIR: Look, I think the key diplomatic push is on Israel-Palestine, is my view, and I totally welcome what the report says on that and I think we've got to move forward on that very much.

I think in relation to Iran and Syria, I think it's more a question of us making sure that everybody in the region understands what their responsibilities are to help Iraq. You know, I've reached out to Syria recently and said to them, "Look, here is the strategic choice for you," and I don't think there's any problem with doing that at all and I don't think the president's got a problem with doing that.

The only issue is, at the moment, Iran is not helping the Iraqi government. It's undermining the Iraqi government.

So if people are to be part of the solution, it's got to be on an agreed basis and I think, in principal, I think it's absolutely right. You bring in all the regional neighbors in order to support the process.

But that can only work if they're showing goodwill…

QUESTION: The press says Iran is negotiating with the United States in the streets of Baghdad. They're trying to increase their influence in Baghdad, increase their influence in the south.

And isn't it true that Iran is more powerful today in Iraq, in the region, than when the United States and the U.K. invaded three years ago?

BLAIR: You know, I think that the answer to that is that Iran is trying to build a coalition of extremism in the region and down in Palestine, with elements of Hamas, elements of Hezbollah in Lebanon and in Iraq, that's what they're trying to do.

Now, I think if we follow the right strategy, we will lift those pressure points and put them on…

QUESTION: But the irony is, in each one of the cases that you just mentioned, there have been elections in the last three years and each one of those elections, the more militant forces have gained strength in Palestine, with Hamas in Lebanon, with Hezbollah in Iraq, with the forces of Muqtada al-Sadr and others.

BLAIR: Yes, but, you see, what is interesting is, if you just roll that back a bit, in Palestine, you're right, and that's won the election, although I think that was for reasons that were more to do with extremism.

Actually, in Lebanon, Siniora's government won the election. Actually, in Iraq, nonsectarian government won the election.

QUESTION: But they still are in control with the support.

BLAIR: But I think it's more, though. There are elements trying to undermine both democratic governments. If you look at Lebanon at the moment, that's a very serious situation.

I spoke to Siniora a short time ago. He's a brave man trying to do the right thing by his country, but he's being undermined by external forces.

Now, likewise, in Iraq, I don't think there's a doubt that the Iraqi people, if we could stabilize the situation, would be perfectly happy when nonsectarian government is what they want. Iraq is potentially a wealthy country. Take a place like Basra. It's potentially an enormously prosperous, wealthy city, with a great force and a great facility as a gateway into the whole of the region.

So, no, I think what is important is to recognize this is a profound struggle between moderation and modernization, on the one hand, and extremism and sectarianism on the other.

Now, what we have to do is to get a sensible, strong, intelligent strategy to win that fight, that struggle, but there's no doubt about the nature of it and there's no doubt either about, in the sense, the virtue of it, the value of it, because the people that we are -- we want to help the Palestinians get their status. Who's stopping it? Not us.

We want to take that forward. The Iraqi people want to let their government, of course, they want to let their government rather than have it imposed on them. We're not stopping them.

The people in Lebanon who are trying to overturn a democratically elected government are the same elements that are trying the same type of strategy everywhere.

My point is not that there's any doubt about either the strength of our corps or, in a sense, the worth of our mission. What we've got to do is get the right strategy to achieve it.

QUESTION: President Bush, the White House has said the president's going to announce the strategy sometime before Christmas.

Are you convinced the proper pieces are in place?

BLAIR: I'm convinced the elements are there, yes. And what I'm also convinced of is that the tough challenge is doing it, making it happen.

Identifying what needs to happen is -- I don't say it's easy, but I think it is relatively straightforward. Getting it done requires immense focus and attention.

QUESTION: President Bush also said that history will judge the United States and aim it harshly if these choices aren't made.

When his new secretary of defense was asked just the other day if going to Iraq was the right decision, he said, "Only time will tell."

Are you still convinced that the history is going to bear out that decision?

BLAIR: I do believe that, but, you know, I don't make the judgment of history. Other people will make that.

But I think that if Saddam was still running around with his sons, I think you'd just have a different range of…

QUESTION: But that wasn't the choice in March of 2003, was it? The inspectors were there. He was contained. He was in a box. Your own former ambassador said that you personally didn't use enough leverage with President Bush to make sure that the right plans were in place for the post-war and perhaps to extend the timeline, put off the invasion while the inspectors were there.

BLAIR: You know, I think the inspectors could have stayed there a very long time and it wouldn't have made the difference.

Saddam was not going to…

QUESTION: Wouldn't it be better than what we have right now?

BLAIR: Well, you see, you can ask why is it that we have the problem now and we have the problem now because people are giving us this problem. People are deliberately creating a situation of destabilization in Iraq.

And my point, as I said, with President Bush, is why should people in Iraq be given a choice between a brutal secular dictator and a sectarian government that is also dictatorial? Why should they be given that choice? Why can't they have the choice of deciding who their government is and participating in free elections?

QUESTION: But if he could have been isolated with the inspectors there, if he could have been surrounded by 250,000 troops, the entire world, he wouldn't have been able to hold on forever.

BLAIR: Yes, but you couldn't have kept -- we can go over this again and again, but, I mean, you couldn't actually, frankly, have kept quarter of a million troops down there. It's very long.

At some point, you had to come to a situation where he had a chance of heart or there was a change of regime, and I think what is interesting is that actually removing Saddam took two or three months.

QUESTION: So you don't regret the optima.

BLAIR: No, I don't regret the decision and in respect of all the things that have happened since then, of course, you go back over those things and you think about them and reflect on it.

But I have a view that this is part of something which is far bigger, which is basically about whether we can create a sufficiently strong alliance of, as I say, moderate and modernizing people across the whole of the region of the Middle East, that we turn it in a different direction, because if I look at the terrorist threat that we face in my country today, that other countries in Europe face, that has happened around the world, if you look at virtually every single conflict that now has this element within it, I think this was a long time in the making and it will take a long time to unmake.

QUESTION: You're set to leave office in about six months or so, maybe a little longer.

Do you think we'll know if we're on the path to success or failure when you leave?

BLAIR: Well, I hope so. I mean, I think what is important is that we make sure that nothing is left undone that could be done to achieve that success, because if we do succeed, I think, in the end, the whole of the region will change and for the better, and if we fail, the consequences are very serious.

QUESTION: We're just about out of time, but I'd like to ask one question about Darfur. Are you concerned that because of the difficulties we've had in Iraq, it's made it more difficult to take the kind of forceful action we might need to be taking against what is a genocide right now in Darfur?

BLAIR: I think that the trouble is that in Darfur, the Africans, other countries don't want American, U.K., other European troops there. Now, the (inaudible) said it's a United Nations-African Union force. I don't think that's the issue. I think the issue is getting the force in there and I think that if, in the next weeks and next couple of months or so, the Sudanese government are not prepared to agree to the U.N. plan, then we've got to move to sanctions and we've got to move to tougher action.

And I think we should certainly consider the option of a no-fly zone to help people in Darfur, because it's a very, very serious situation and it's now spilling into other countries next door.

But this is not our military force, certainly, in terms of boots on the ground.

QUESTION: But stronger action is going to have to be taken.

BLAIR: It's going to have to be taken if the Sudanese government do not agree to the plan that's been put to them.

And the reason why this is important is not just for the terrible suffering of people in Darfur and elsewhere in Sudan, but it's got the potential to destabilize the whole of the region.

And it's also, I'm afraid, as everything else has now, it's got this dimension about extremism attached to it.

QUESTION: Mr. Prime Minister, thank you very much.

BLAIR: Thank you, George.