Will Bombs Scare Away Turkish Tourists?

I S T A N B U L, Turkey, Dec. 15, 2003 -- The maze of shops comprising the exotic Grand Bazaar in central Istanbul has carpets, jewelry, souvenirs — everything, it seems, but customers.

Shopkeepers say the wave of terrorist attacks that stunnedTurkey's most important commercial city and killed 57 people hasfrightened buyers away.

"Business has changed. It has almost died," said Mehmet Uzungun,32, a salesman at a bazaar gift shop. "After the firstattacks, it was kind of OK. But after the second attacks, there'snothing."

Still, economists say it is too early to tell whether theattacks will inflict long-term damage on Turkey's tourism industryor derail its economic upswing.

"We don't have enough data," said Serhan Cevik of MorganStanley in London. "This is an irrational act that will have someconsequences. It's a big economy, so it will recover. But if thisgoes on, it could become an issue."

Summer Will Be Key

The splendor of Istanbul draws millions of curious visitors eachyear. But suicide attacks against two Istanbul synagogues on Nov.15 and then again five days later against the British Consulate andlocal headquarters of a London-based bank have severely shaken thecity.

Tourists are still here, but whether that will change when thecrucial high season gets underway in the summer of 2004 is one ofthe key questions hanging over this nation as it recovers from thecarnage.

Foreign governments — including the United States, Britain,Australia and Germany — have issued an outpouring of warnings thattheir citizens should avoid nonessential travel to Turkey.

But the Turkish Hotel Association said that advising people tostay away plays into the hands of terrorists trying to sow chaos.

"What we request from our neighbors, friends around the worldand allied countries is to encourage travel to Turkey more thanbefore," the association said in a statement. "Travel so that theterrorists will see that the world is together."

Taking a Stand Against Terrorism

Those who had already made the trip agreed that it was importantnot to be driven away by terrorists.

"If I leave, they win," said Stefanie Durbin, 36, of Seattle,Wash., as she picked through handcrafted jewelry at an open marketnot far from the Blue Mosque, a 17th-century Ottoman mosque famousfor its unique six minarets. "By staying here, I'm not lettingthem win."

Others seemed to agree. Armed with guide books and anappreciation of the nation's history and heritage, many travelersfrom abroad said they had no plans to cut their vacations short,despite pleas from family to come home.

"It was important for me to come here after the synagoguebombing," said Jonathan Lenn, 24, of Sydney, Australia, who wasamong a smattering of tourists wandering through Istanbul'shistoric Sultanahmet quarter. "I'm Jewish, and I wanted to be withthe Jewish people here."

Bracing for Cancellations

Stefanie Rother, spokeswoman for TUI AG, Europe's largesttourism company, based in Hanover, Germany, said its business inTurkey probably would not be affected because most clients spendholidays along the Mediterranean coast, about 620 miles fromIstanbul.

"We have had no cancellations so far," Rother said.

But French tour operator FRAM said it was bracing for a largenumber of cancellations among its 160 tourist bookings to Istanbulthrough February.

Pacha Tours, another operator that specializes in Turkish tours,said that it also received concerned calls from travel agencies.

"We only received one call after the first attacks, but sincethe [second] attacks, …100 people have canceled or delayed theirtrip," said Didier Huet, Pacha commercial director. About 13.5 million tourists visited Turkey last year — led by3.3 million Germans, 2.3 million Russians and about 1 millionBritons, according to the Tourism Ministry. Turkey counts ontourism, its second-largest source of foreign currency earnings, toadd $10 billion a year to its economy.

But the tourism industry has taken a number of big hits over thelast few years. The arrest of Kurdish guerrilla leader AbdullahOcalan in 1999 sparked protests and initiated a downturn intourism. Then came two massive earthquakes, the Sept. 11 attacks onthe United States and the war in Iraq. Recession hit Turkey in2001.

The industry was mounting a comeback this past year, with thenumber of visitors up nearly 20 percent from the same period lastyear. But then Istanbul was stricken with terror, and hopes thatforeign tourists would grow in number was thrown in doubt.

"It clearly is going to weigh on people's minds when they arebooking for holidays next year," said Tolga Ediz, an economistwith Lehman Brothers in London.