How to avoid, or at least minimize, holiday flight delays
— -- For those forced to fly during the holidays, December has become the cruelest month. In recent years, winter storms and security hassles have combined with higher and higher percentages of occupied seats to make air travel in the final month of the year a particularly frustrating experience.
Now is the time when many travelers are booking seasonal flights, but for most consumers the emphasis undoubtedly is on fares, not on-time performance. And that's a strategy that may not make sense at this time of year, when a delayed or canceled flight can ruin your holiday and finding space on an alternative airline can be just about impossible. Saving a few dollars on a flight will seem a hollow victory if you spend Christmas, Hanukkah, Kwanzaa, or New Year's Eve in an airport terminal.
According to the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT), the passenger load factor for U.S. carriers rose to 77% last December. That's a systemwide average, so it means quite a few holiday flights were packed solid at 100%. And there's early evidence flights will be just as crammed this year, so choosing the right departure is critical.
As I pointed out in a previous column, Arriving on time is a science, selecting the best time to travel can take some research. Unfortunately, December is an inherently dicey time. The good news is the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is predicting a warmer than normal winter. However, the head of NOAA's forecast operations still warns, "Even though December, January and February are likely to be milder than average for much of the country, people should still expect some typical winter weather this season."
The best way to determine how airlines will perform this December is to look at the last few Decembers. And the best way to examine airline delay patterns is to download the most recent Air Travel Consumer Report from the DOT. These monthly reports provide a lot of detailed information on airline and airport on-time performance.
Here's a rundown of what the last few Decembers have taught us.
•How airlines stack up
According to the DOT, the nation's airlines performed steadily worse at operating flights that arrived within 15 minutes of schedule during the last four Decembers. Collectively, here's how they ranked:
December 2003 76.0% December 2004 71.6% December 2005 71.0% December 2006 70.8%
Obviously that's a pattern many would like to see disrupted this year. Here's how the carriers themselves performed in December 2006:
Aloha 93.7% Hawaiian 90.1% Delta 80.8% Southwest 76.9% AirTran 75.8% Continental 73.4% Frontier 71.8% US Airways 70.9% AVERAGE 70.8% Mesa (commuter) 69.9% Atlantic Southeast (commuter) 69.9% United 69.4% ExpressJet (commuter) 69.4% ATA 68.8% Comair (commuter) 68.5% American 67.1% Northwest 66.6% Alaska 66.3% JetBlue 64.8% American Eagle (commuter) 64.3% SkyWest (commuter) 63.9%
Obviously geography plays a big part in wintertime delays, so it's no surprise the most punctual airlines were Aloha and Hawaiian. In fact, Hawaiian placed first in the three previous Decembers before Aloha joined the ranks in 2006.
Among the majors, Southwest has been the steadiest performer, consistently ranking in the top five for the last four Decembers. The only other major carrier to operate better than the on-time average during the same period was Continental. Delta showed the most improvement, steadily rising in the rankings each December for four years.
Conversely, Alaska was the only major carrier that ranked lower than the on-time average in each of the last four Decembers. American also performed poorly during that span. The other major airlines—Northwest, United, and US Airways—performed inconsistently.
The regional airlines that provide commuter service for the big guys all ranked below average last December, which is no surprise considering such flights often are intentionally delayed to accommodate connecting passengers.
Again, geography cannot be overlooked, since operating a hub in Newark or Chicago or Minneapolis is riskier in December than operating a hub in Atlanta or Phoenix or Honolulu. But then choosing an airport is a critical decision as well.
The airport question
Not all facilities are created equal, even within the same region. Of course, traffic has a direct bearing on punctuality; Dallas-Fort Worth, for example, reported nearly six times as many flight operations last December as cross-town rival Love Field. The carriers operating at a given airport have a big effect on the facility's on-time performance as well, since a major airline's hub operation can induce more delays than a low-fare carrier's point-to-point service.
What follows are the percentages of on-time flights reported at nearby airports in selected metropolitan areas last December, with numbers for both on-time arrivals and on-time departures. Some differentials—particularly in Chicago and New York—were considerable.
* Bay AreaOakland: 73.7% / 69.5% San Francisco International: 66.3% / 69.9%
* Greater Boston Logan: 76.3% / 78.5% Providence: 75.8% / 80.9% Hartford/Bradley: 75.5% / 81.0%
* ChicagoMidway: 73.8% / 69.1% O'Hare International: 55.9% / 58.6%
* Dallas Love Field: 76.8% / 74.8% Dallas-Fort Worth: 70.9% / 67.9%
* South Florida Miami: 69.7% / 75.0% Fort Lauderdale: 69.1% / 74.0%
* Houston Bush Intercontinental: 74.5% / 76.7% Hobby: 73.6% / 71.5%
* Greater Los Angeles Long Beach: 81.4% / 84.1% Orange County/Santa Ana/John Wayne: 77.5% / 78.6% Ontario: 75.1% / 79.7% Burbank: 75.0% / 76.6% Los Angeles International: 74.9% / 76.1%
* Greater New York CityIslip/MacArthur: 79.7% / 80.6% White Plains: 69.8% / 70.0% LaGuardia: 63.6% / 73.5% JFK International: 61.1% / 67.0% Newburgh/Stewart: 60.7% / 66.7% Newark: 56.5% / 68.3%
* Greater Washington, D.C.Baltimore-Washington International: 79.5% / 78.6% Reagan National: 73.9% / 79.0% Dulles: 73.7% / 72.9%
The lesson is clear: Choosing the right airport has a direct effect on avoiding a flight delay. There's no question that airport preference can affect your ability to get to your destination on time, so it's something to consider during the busiest travel season, even if it means a longer drive to and from the airport.
•Flights to avoid
Last December, commuter carriers earned the dubious distinction of dominating the DOT's "flights of shame" list for those that arrived late 80% of the time or more. Among the top 26 scheduled flights chronically late, regional airlines that serve as commuter partners for major carriers operated 20 of them.
And no airline performed worse than SkyWest, which operates as Delta Connection, Midwest Connect, and United Express. In fact, 17 of the 26 most delayed flights were flown by SkyWest, including four that were delayed 100% of the time, all of them for Delta. In fairness, all four of those routes intersect with Salt Lake City, a destination known for winter snowstorms. Unfortunately, though, 11 of the 26 most often delayed flights last December departed or arrived from SLC.
And for many travelers, there's the rub: Holiday vacations are the perfect time for skiing and other snow sports, yet such trips are the most vulnerable to weather-related flight delays. Whether the destination is New England or the Rockies, if alternative transportation is an option, December is a good time to consider it.
•Choosing the right time to fly
Every year brings unique wrinkles to the holiday travel season, depending on when Hanukkah is celebrated and which day of the week Christmas and New Year's fall. (Since Thanksgiving is always a Thursday, it makes planning a little easier. The Sunday after and the Wednesday before traditionally are the busiest airline days of the year, while flying on Thanksgiving itself is always a good bet.)
In past years, Hotwire has provided a very helpful calendar to assist with selecting the best travel days. However, flying on Christmas Day usually assures you of boarding less crowded, more punctual flights, while flying on the weekends before and after the holidays should be avoided if at all possible.
As for the best time of day to fly, as always, earlier is best. Nighttime flying during icing conditions often leads to delays.
Things to keep in mind
Checking out the big-picture delay trends in the monthly DOT reports is a good idea. However, it also pays to learn the actual on-time record of the specific flight you're considering booking. The DOT's Bureau of Transportation Statistics provides tools for doing this at (www.bts.gov/programs/airline_information/airline_ontime_statistics).
If you'd rather not commit to such research, your best bet is to call a travel agent or the airline's reservations department if you need to know a given flight's arrival performance. As I've pointed out before, the DOT's "flight delays rule" has a huge loophole: It was written prior to the advent of online bookings and it hasn't been updated to require either third-party travel agency sites or the airlines' own branded sites to provide the same information you get over the phone or in person. Some sites do provide this information, but it's inconsistent.
Bill McGee, a contributing editor to Consumer Reports and the former editor of Consumer Reports Travel Letter, is an FAA-licensed aircraft dispatcher who worked in airline operations and management for several years. Tell him what you think of his latest column by sending him an e-mail at USATODAY.com at travel@usatoday. Include your name, hometown and daytime phone number, and he may use your feedback in a future column.