Bogus Threats Provoke Real Reactions

Oct. 18, 2005 — -- As the second specific terror threat this month disrupted transportation in a large metropolitan area, terrorism experts say local officials are in a difficult position of having to react to threats -- even as terrorists and their sympathizers can easily spread false information.

And they're certain that bogus threats are an ongoing problem.

"I don't think there's any question," said Kyle Olson, a terrorism specialist and ABC News consultant. "I suspect that the sheer volume of spurious intelligence that is going into the system from foreign and domestic sources would blow your socks off."

Olson said the goal simply could be to get the U.S. government to waste time and energy and to possibly cause some damage as disruptions occur. Some of the information also comes from prisoners or people being interrogated who think giving up information will earn them better treatment.

Today's threat to blow up a Baltimore tunnel, which led to two area tunnels being closed for two hours, originated with a detainee in prison overseas, federal officials told ABC News. Though officials in Washington discredited the tip, Maryland Gov. Robert Ehrlich Jr. said he had no choice but to act as the investigation information leaked to the public.

A Balancing Act

Local officials, who receive information from federal agencies like the Department of Homeland Security and the FBI and then determine how to respond, took the most recent threats seriously and warned the public. Baltimore endured traffic snarls after the closure, while New York increased security and bag checks two weeks ago after a threat to the subways.

"After 9/11, everything has to be weighed very seriously," said Vince Cannistraro, former counterterrorism operations chief at the CIA and an ABC News consultant. "You can't overlook it if you get an overseas report that's the equivalent of some drunk in a barroom … saying he just heard that this group is going to blow up a tunnel. You can't ignore it."

But the actions of local officials have been met with some criticism. When New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg and Police Commissioner Ray Kelly reacted to the alleged subway plot, Homeland Security officials publicly downplayed the credibility of the threat. Following today's incident, Homeland Security officials and the FBI backed local authorities more strongly, saying in a statement that they "support whatever protective measures taken out of an abundance of caution that state and local law enforcement authorities deem appropriate to ensure the safety and security of their community until we can complete the investigation."

The timeframe of a threat plays a big part in the response, Olson said. If it's specific but it alludes to a date months away, there is time to corroborate it.

But when there's a short period of time, as in Baltimore and New York, "You don't have the same luxury of sifting through the details looking for inconsistencies, looking for flaws," he said. "You can either sit on the intelligence, or you can push it out the door with the appropriate caveats. One of the lessons, whether right or wrong, of 9/11 is that there were people who apparently sat on intelligence."

So now there is more communication between federal intelligence analysts, whose responsibility is simply to relay the information, and local authorities who must decide what to do. "If they did not act, if the information turns out to be true, then they're responsible for a catastrophe," Cannistraro said. "So we put local officials in a very difficult position."

And terrorists and their supporters are well aware of the impact they can have, Olson said. "They know that we react … They know that with the right piece of information in the system at the right time you can shut down I-95 or shut down a major airport or financial institutions.

"There's almost no doubt that our adversaries are getting better at tweaking the system to get reactions out of us," he said. "For what it's worth, I'm not sure I'd want to be in a system that didn't react. Those days are over."