New York No. 2 Most Vulnerable to Hurricanes
June 1, 2006 — -- A large hurricane, on the scale of Katrina, could strike the Northeast, namely New York, this summer.
On June 1, opening day for the hurricane season, the focus remains on the preparedness of the areas typically hard hit by hurricanes, like Florida, New Orleans and Texas, but fail to examine how prepared or ill prepared other parts of the nation are.
The Big Apple could be just as vulnerable to a hurricane as the Big Easy. Historically, hurricanes hit New York City, Long Island and the New England coast about once every decade. Some meteorologists are concerned that the Northeast wouldn't just get a storm, but would get a large-scale hurricane that could be as damaging and costly as Katrina.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, this hurricane season is going to be particularly active. The administration predicts eight to 10 hurricanes looming over us for the 2006 North Atlantic hurricane season, with up to a half-dozen of those hurricanes becoming large-scale Category 3 or higher.
New York No. 2 at Risk
"New York is second to New Orleans in terms of being the greatest at risk for storm surge and flooding from a major hurricane," said Karen Clark, president and chief executive of AIR Worldwide, an insurance consulting firm based in Boston.
"This is because of both New Orleans' and New York's orientation to the coastline." Clark said. She explained that New Orleans might have a problem with a levee system but that when a hurricane hits, New York, Long Island and New Jersey had a tendency to build up large amounts of water because of the narrowing of multiple inlets and bays.
Northeast Not Prepared
Many meteorologists say the Northeast's time is approaching for a major hurricane because the Atlantic Ocean cycles through various levels of activity and right now those levels are peaking.
Bernie Rayno, senior meteorologist for AccuWeather, says the Northeast is not prepared for a hurricane with the magnitude of Katrina or even one with a lesser magnitude.
Rayno says the Northeast may, in fact, be even worse off to handle a large hurricane. "Ivan, the hurricane that struck [the Gulf Coast] the year before Katrina, believe it or not, prepared that area. But in the Northeast, there hasn't been a hurricane for some time, so people don't have a clear concept of what will happen."
A hurricane in the Northeast could wreak havoc similar to what happened in New Orleans. According to Rayno, "The storm itself will be accompanied by the same type of weather -- it doesn't matter if you eat an orange in New York City or an orange in New Orleans -- it's the same thing."
Evacuate or Ride It Out
Rayno says his biggest concern is evacuating the Northeast if a hurricane hits.
"The eastern seaboard is much more concentrated with people compared to the Gulf Coast. A lot of towns and cities don't have a plan because they're not expecting it."
Evacuating people from the Northeast would be challenging, given the protocol for evacuation. People can't be evacuated until after an official warning has been issued by the National Hurricane Center.
After that, the Emergency Management Association has just 36 hours to 48 hours to evacuate people. "That's not a lot of time to evacuate people, and there's so much rush and congestion during an evacuation that deaths occur," Rayno said.
Some people choose to ride out a storm. Rayno says those who decide to ride it out must be confident that they can live without power, water and food for days.
"Most of what we have in Manhattan is underground. But here, we get heavy snow so rain is not a problem. But our overhead system is vulnerable to high winds," said Chris Olert of Consolidated Edison Co. of New York, New York City's power company.
No Insurance
Some Northeasterners may think they're ready to live without power, water or food for days, even weeks, but they may not be covered with the appropriate insurance needed to confront a hurricane.
"Unless people buy a separate policy from the National Flood Insurance Program, you won't be covered for flooding," Clark said. "The amount of people who have taken that separate policy out in the Northeast is pretty low."
History Shows Northeast's Vulnerability
As history shows, the Northeast has reason to worry.
Records indicate that once every century, a Category 3 or larger hurricane hits that area of the country. In just three decades -- 1938, 1944 and 1954 -- three hurricanes have struck the Northeast.
The hurricane in 1938 caused the most damage, destroying more than 60,000 homes and killing 700 people in Long Island, N.Y., and New England. People called it "The Long Island Express," because the damage incurred happened so suddenly.
The storm sped up the coast from North Carolina in just seven hours with winds driving it at 60 mph.
Hurricanes that have hit the Northeast in recent years have not caused as much damage, like 1985's Hurricane Gloria that struck Connecticut and Long Island and 1991's Hurricane Bob that hit Rhode Island and Massachusetts.