Voters Back Bush on Same-Sex Marriage
March 10, 2004 -- There may be a political bonus in President Bush's position on same-sex marriages: Voters who call it a make-or-break issue disproportionately take his side, according to an ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll.
The poll found 22 percent of Americans both support a constitutional amendment to ban same-sex marriages and say they would only back a presidential candidate who shares their position on such marriages. It's a decisive issue for fewer, 13 percent, who want states to settle the question rather than amending the constitution.
The division is greater on the issue of same-sex marriage more generally: 28 percent say they'd only vote for a candidate who opposes same-sex marriages, while just 8 percent would only vote for one who supports such marriages.
The president and Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, both oppose same-sex marriages, though Bush has done so much more prominently. And Bush supports amending the Constitution, while Kerry does not.
Overall, there's greater opposition to same-sex marriages than there is support for them, and there's also much greater intensity of sentiment among opponents. And while more people oppose than support a constitutional amendment, political equations sometimes follow the intensity of views and salience of issues, not just the majority sentiment.
The issue is not a compelling one for most Americans. Same-sex marriage finishes last in importance among 12 issues measured in this ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll, with 36 percent saying it's very important in deciding their vote. That lags behind top issues like the economy, jobs and terrorism by more than 40 percentage points.
However, among opponents of same-sex marriages, 41 percent call it "very important" in their choice of candidate, and among "strong" opponents, 48 percent call it "very important." Among same-sex marriage supporters, by contrast, just 27 percent call it a "very important" issue.
Diverse Views
Overall, 59 percent say same-sex marriages should be illegal, up slightly from a steady 55 percent in three previous polls since last fall. At the same time, 51 percent now support civil unions for homosexual couples, also up slightly, from 45 percent last month. The changes – more opposed to marriages, more supporting unions – are too slight to be definitive, but could, if they continue, reflect a desire to split the difference.
Forty-four percent favor a constitutional amendment to ban same-sex marriages, while more, 53 percent, say states should make their own laws on the issue. Support for an amendment has held about steady after rising in February; preference for state control has risen by eight points after declining in February. It's still not back to its level in January — before Bush announced his support for an amendment and before San Francisco started allowing same-sex marriages.
As noted, intensity is stronger among opponents of same-sex marriages: 48 percent of Americans feel "strongly" that such marriages should be illegal, while half as many, 24 percent, "strongly" favor them. Pro and con intensity is more evenly matched, though, on the issues of civil unions and a constitutional amendment.
The Friends and Relatives Factor
Nearly half of Americans, 46 percent, say they have a close friend or relative who is homosexual, or that they themselves are.
This group is 16 points more likely to say same-sex civil unions should be legal (60 percent compared with 44 percent); 11 points more likely to say same-sex marriage should be legal (44 percent compared with 33 percent); and seven points more likely to favor state laws rather than a constitutional amendment (57 percent compared with 50 percent).
Partisan Politics
Bush's views on this issue provide a natural fit with his base. Eighty-five percent of evangelical white Protestants and 80 percent of conservatives say same-sex marriages should be illegal. Majorities of these groups, albeit smaller ones, also favor a constitutional amendment to ban such marriages — 64 percent of evangelical white Protestants and 62 percent of conservatives.
There's a partisan divide as well. About six in 10 independents and Democrats favor state laws over a constitutional amendment, and they are twice as likely to Republicans to say same-sex marriages should be legal.
While he's shoring up his base, there are some potential soft spots here for Bush. More Americans disapprove than approve of his handling of the same-sex marriage issue, by 52 percent to 44 percent. In another measure, people divide evenly on which candidate they trust more to handle the issue, 44 percent for Bush, 43 percent for Kerry.
Also, white Catholics — a key swing-voter group — and non-evangelical white Protestants — usually pro-Republican — are much less likely than evangelical white Protestants to oppose same-sex marriage or support an amendment.
In a two-way contest, Bush leads Kerry by 54 percent to 41 percent among same-sex marriage opponents, compared with a 70 percent to 25 percent Kerry advantage among the smaller group of supporters of such marriages.
Further on single-issue voting, only half of conservatives and 44 percent of evangelical white Protestants say they could support a candidate who disagreed with them on same-sex marriage. By contrast, 67 percent of moderates, 62 percent of liberals and about seven in 10 non-evangelical white Protestants and white Catholics alike say they could still vote for a candidate who disagreed with them.
Overall, six in 10 voters say they could vote for a presidential candidate if they agreed with him on other issues but disagreed on same-sex marriage. The result is the same for abortion, while more say they could vote for a candidate who disagreed with them on gun control (75 percent) or the death penalty (80 percent).
Groups
Strong opposition to same-sex marriage peaks at 76 percent of evangelical white Protestants and 71 percent of conservatives. Strong support is highest among nonreligious Americans (52 percent) and liberals (44 percent).
There's a marked age gap, with younger Americans far more accepting of same-sex marriages. Sixty-three percent of 18- to 29-year-olds say they should be legal (44 percent strongly), while about three in four senior citizens say they should be illegal (two in three strongly). Similarly, 68 percent of younger Americans, compared with 30 percent of senior citizens, favor civil unions.
Methodology
This ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone March 4-7 among a random national sample of 1,202 adults. The results have a three-point error margin. Sampling, data collection and tabulation were done by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, Pa.
Previous ABCNEWS polls can be found in our Poll Vault.