Poll: Americans Broadly Support War

March 21, 2003 -- Americans broadly support the war with Iraq — but their views of its timing, and of George W. Bush's handling of the conflict, are considerably weaker than public views at the start of the Persian Gulf War in 1991.

Bush's approval rating for handling the situation with Iraq is 65 percent; his father's comparable rating at the start of the Gulf War was 80 percent. And Bush's overall job approval, 67 percent, is up just five points from early this month. His father's overall rating, by contrast, jumped 16 points after the 1991 war began, to 79 percent.

Some other basic measures of support, while high, are also lower than they were the last time around. Sixty-seven percent of Americans say the United States did enough to seek a diplomatic solution before attacking; it was 77 percent at the start of the Gulf War. And on timing, 62 percent say it was right for the United States to attack now — compared to 75 percent on Jan. 16, 1991, the night the Gulf War began.

These views likely reflect, at least in part, the current president's inability to win United Nations support, which many Americans would have preferred. And unlike Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in 1991, the threat this time is more ambiguous — believing it requires believing Bush, which many Democrats, in particular, are less apt to do.

Public backing for the war held steady Thursday night, after spiking Monday night when Bush set a 48-hour deadline for attacking. Seventy-two percent of Americans support the war, and most, 53 percent, support it "strongly," same as Monday night. That's closer to the level of support for the Gulf War at its start in 1991 — 76 percent.

Among supporters of the war, nearly 80 percent say they support both the troops and the president's policy, while 20 percent say they support the troops, but oppose the policy. At the same time, the number of people who "strongly" support the war, 53 percent, far outstrips the number of "strong" opponents, 18 percent.

Partisanship is still a striking feature of views of this conflict. Ninety percent of Republicans support the war; that declines to 73 percent of independents, and drops further to 51 percent of Democrats. And 84 percent of Republicans say this was the right time to attack; just 43 percent of Democrats agree.

Casualties

In a change in expectations, there's been a sharp drop in the number of Americans who foresee heavy U.S. military casualties — just 37 percent now expect substantial losses, down from 62 percent two weeks ago.

That may reflect confidence in U.S. technology and intelligence, and a response to positive accounts of the war's early stages, but it also raises questions about the durability of high levels of public support if things go badly. Among people who expect low casualties, 80 percent support the war; among those who expect high casualties, it's 61 percent — still a majority, albeit 19 points lower.

In an interesting parallel, a big drop in expectations of high casualties also accompanied the start of the Gulf War.

With the fighting underway, there is concern about casualties on the Iraqi side. There's been a 15-point drop in the number of Americans who say they'd favor a U.S. nuclear strike in response to an Iraqi attack with chemical or biological weapons — down from 60 percent in December to 45 percent now.

And just under half the public, 49 percent, says the United States should strike Iraqi military targets that are located in areas where civilians might be killed. Forty-two percent say the U.S. forces should avoid such targets.

Length

While most Americans now don't expect high casualties, most also don't expect a lightning-quick war. Just under four in 10 think it'll last days or weeks, but about as many think it'll last months. Fewer, about two in 10, think there still will be fighting a year or more from now.

Saddam/WMDs

About half the public, at least for the moment, sets a high bar for victory: Forty-nine percent say that to succeed, the United States can't simply remove Saddam Hussein from power, but must kill or capture him as well.

But that well may shift with events. At the start of the 1991 war, two-thirds of Americans said its goal should be to remove Saddam from power, not just to remove Iraqi forces from Kuwait. (Then-President Bush did not oblige.) And near the start of the Afghanistan war, almost two-thirds said that for success it was necessary to capture or kill Osama bin Laden. But in ensuing months, as he eluded capture, that number fell sharply — possibly reflecting a sense he had been operationally disabled, if not personally nabbed.

Fewer Americans demand finding weapons of mass destruction: Thirty-five percent say the United States will be able to justify the war only if it locates such weapons in Iraq (and seven percent say there can be no justification). Fifty-three percent, though, say the war can be justified for other reasons, even if WMDs don?t turn up.

Vital Interests

Part of the reason may be the broader belief that Saddam backs terrorists, WMDs or not. Previous polling has found that two-thirds think Baghdad has directly supported al Qaeda; and in this poll, about the same number, 67 percent, say they believe America's vital interests are at stake in the situation involving Iraq.

Belief that vital interests are at stake is a prime factor in support for war — among people who hold this view, 82 percent support the war; among those who say U.S. vital interests are not at stake, support falls to 47 percent. In other fairly recent conflicts — Bosnia, Kosovo, Haiti, Somalia — far fewer Americans were persuaded that U.S. vital interests were at stake.

Two-thirds of Americans — including many of those who say U.S. interests are at stake — also say Bush has done a good job explaining his reasons for going to war. And 76 percent say they're confident the United States and its allies did the right thing in attacking. But fewer, 51 percent, are "very" confident this war is the right path, eight points fewer than in 1991.

Terrorism

Finally, though the nation's terrorism alert is back up to orange, the start of war has not significantly boosted public anxiety about an attack. Seventy-six percent say they're concerned about another major terrorist attack in this country, but that's not much higher than its pre-war level. And quite a bit fewer, 29 percent, express a "great deal" of concern about further terrorism.

Methodology

This ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone March 20, 2003, among a random national sample of 506 adults. The results have a 4.5-point error margin. Fieldwork by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, PA.

Previous ABCNEWS polls can be found in our Poll Vault.