Mideast Crisis Intensifies Politics Swirling About Campaign

— -- How will Middle East violence impact the U.S. presidential race? Read how one political insider sees it all.

By Elizabeth WilnerABCNEWS.comOct. 12

— Just when you thought the presidential race couldn’t get any more rancorous, violence erupts in the Middle East and the candidates unite in outrage over the

shedding of American blood.

Overseas events probably stymie the efforts of Democratic presidential candidate Al Gore’s campaign to win the spin war in the aftermath of Wednesday night’s debate, and maybe even freezes the public perception that Republican George W. Bush did well. This puts more pressure on Gore to score big at the final debate next Tuesday night in St. Louis, so as to avoid the perception of a net loss. The Los Angeles Times’ Ron Brownstein observes that Democrats have given up hope that Gore could knock Bush out in the debates.

“Now … the best Gore may be able to hope for is to emerge even from the three encounters — and find another way to beat Bush in the three weeks left.”

The Troubles

But the tensions overseas have, at least temporarily, subdued the rancorous back-and-forth between the campaigns. ABCNEWS’ John Berman advises there is not likely to be any dissension whatsoever from the Bush camp on the administration’s handling of the crises. Bush aides all call Gore’s hasty return to Washington on Thursday “appropriate,” and are generally refusing to speculate on the potential political ramifications of the troubles there. They must be happy and relieved that Bush seemed to establish his foreign policy smarts before all this happened.

Bush and Gore now must figure out how to use the situation to their advantage without being seen as playing politics. Gore may be able to attain some presidential shine through his involvement in handling the situation as vice president, but Gore absolutely cannot afford to have any maneuverings seem as painfully obvious as his handling of Elian Gonzalez earlier this year.

Although the Bushies may not be questioning Clinton/Gore’s approach to the current crises in the Middle East, they may seek to draw attention today to another little problem in the administration’s foreign policy. The New York Times today covers a secret pact between the administration, negotiated by Gore, and then-Russian prime minister Viktor Chernomyrdin in 1995, “calling for an end to all Russian sales of conventional weapons to Iran by the end of 1999.” In exchange, “the United States pledged not to seek penalties against Russia under a 1992 law that requires sanctions against countries that sell advanced weaponry to countries the State Department classifies as state sponsors of terrorism,” including Iran. The gist of the story is that the deadline for Russia to end weapons sales to Iran has passed and such sales still have not ceased.

Post-Debate Positioning

Meanwhile, speculation continues as to whether Wednesday night’s debate marked a turning point in the race. Gore and Democrats have adopted a two-pronged strategy of attacking Bush’s Texas record and going after him for his misstatement on the convictions of the killers of James Byrd, with some attention also being paid to Bush’s attitude when he offered his response. The New York Times quotes Byrd’s daughter in a story suggesting Bush used the case to score political points in the debate, and also notes that Bush violated his impartiality as Texas governor in appearing to express satisfaction that (two of) the killers had been sentenced to death.

ABCNEWS’ Dana Hill points out that Gore today is scheduled to hold a closed meeting with Arab-American leaders in Detroit. This meeting has been on the books for weeks and presumably was meant to be the same sort of meeting Bush had with this group not too long ago, but it now may take on new significance.

Back home, on the electoral college war front, the Associated Press reports that “the Republican National Committee was preparing to regain the edge in Florida, adding more than $200,000 to its ad buy there to counter a Democratic ad criticizing Bush on the environment. The RNC was bringing back an ad from the summer charging that Gore received thousands of dollars in royalty payments from a zinc mining operation on land he owns in Tennessee that allegedly polluted a nearby river.”

Truth Squad

As reported on World News Tonight, Gore misstated his position on a $10,000 tax deduction during the debate—claiming it was per child, per year while it is actually only a yearly deduction per family. Reporters who were with Gore in Sarasota, Fla., witnessed an especially egregious interaction showing Gore’s “accuracy problem” when a young woman asked him specifically about this policy detail, “What about the families with more than one child, will this only be able to be deducted once?”

Gore responded by reassuring her that it applied per child, and then talked with the young woman about how many siblings she had and — in a “feel your pain” moment — about how concerned she was about the cost of tuition. It was clear that Gore did not understand his own policy, and aides failed to correct the problem before the debate.

Where Are They Now?

Bush today will continue his two-day emphasis on issues important to the “Greatest Generation,” delivering a speech in Grand Rapids, Mich., devoted to seniors’ health issues. Later in the day, in Pontiac, Mich., Bush will tour a GM truck plant and speak to workers about his energy proposals.

Today at noon ET, AIDS activists will protest against Bush in front of the Republican National Committee headquarters in Washington.

Third Watch

Green Party presidential candidate Ralph Nader just keeps trying to get his way into the debates. ABCNEWS’ Rebecca Bershadker reports on Nader’s sixth “Super Rally,” to be held tonight in New York’s Madison Square Garden. Pearl Jam’s Eddie Vedder, talk show legend Phil Donahue, actor Tim Robbins, actress Susan Sarandon along with singers Ani DiFranco, Ben Harper and Patti Smith will be on hand to call for Nader’s participation in the third debate — and for the more realistic goal of registering voters.

Empire Stakes

First lady Hillary Rodham Clinton today holds a press conference to receive the state League of Conservation Voters endorsement in New York this morning. The President’s appearance at a fund-raiser for his wife tonight has been canceled.

The New York Times and The Washington Post report the Clinton campaign yesterday acknowledged using White House social lists to send fund-raising appeals, and that the cash raised from those appeals — just $225 — would be returned.

Mrs. Clinton got a very cold reception Thursday in her appearance at a “Solidarity for Israel” rally in Manhattan. Her hug with Suha Arafat, wife of Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat, may become more of an issue now in the final weeks of the campaign.

Paper Trail

• TheNew York Times quotes several House Democrats representing very safe districts as criticizing Gore for not being tough enough on the Republican party.

• The Wall Street Journal reports that Republicans are bracing for Clinton efforts to help Gore in these final weeks: “The biggest potential prize: a Gore proposal giving a big tax credit to low- and-moderate-income savers.”

• The Journal briefly covers some get-out-the-vote efforts: “The Republican Party boasts a computerized list of 165 million names. The GOP has spent $5 million on high-tech projects, including an e-mail effort that, one party official says, “will knock your socks off.” The party has e-mail addresses for 400,000 Republicans whose own address books average 28 names each. The Democrats will use state-party data bases to reach voters with messages linking local concerns to the presidential race.”

• And, The New York Times looks at labor’s efforts to get out the vote for Gore in Michigan.