Sour Summer Vacation

June 29, 2007 — -- Those who are traveling for the Fourth of July holiday are bracing themselves for what could be a nightmare experience at the airports and in the skies. The American Automobile Association estimated that about 4.7 million people, 11 percent of holiday travelers, will fly over the Fourth -- that's up 3.5 percent from a year ago.

They're facing an aviation system that many believe is on the verge of collapse.

It's already been a long, hot summer for travelers. According to FlightStats.com, for the first 15 days of June, the number of canceled flights was up 91 percent from the same time a year ago.

And the number of flights considered excessively late, arriving more than 45 minutes late, was up 61 percent. (Have you experienced these delays? Send in your story here.)

Watch Lisa Stark's report tonight on "World News With Charles Gibson" at 6:30 p.m. EDT

Summer always brings thunderstorms and weather delays. But this year that situation has been exacerbated by the fact that planes are packed -- flying an average of 85 percent full and often completely full on weekends. That means if airlines have to cancel flights, there are no other seats available for passengers.

At Newark Airport Thursday, business traveler Tracey Heriter was clearly frustrated.

"We had a flight out, and they're telling us it's canceled due to the weather, and we cannot get out of here until Saturday." It was the same story for Jeffrey Rowe, who said, "They didn't have any options to book us on another flight. All the other seats were already booked up."

Packed Planes, Fewer Workers, Hopes of Profits

All this passenger misery comes as airlines reported profits for the fourth straight quarter. But analysts said those profit margins are still thin, and airlines are worried about rising fuel prices. So they're not likely to pour that money back into improving the customer experience.

Instead, they are jamming planes full to try to improve the bottom line.

Aviation analyst Ray Neidl, at Calyon Securities, insisted, "The airlines are doing a good job under the circumstances." But, he said, "they have reached their limit. You cannot get year-round load factors any higher than they are now. You are wearing out your assets. You are wearing out your people."

And he believes passengers are also partly to blame for the airline mess.

"People are getting what they pay for. The customer wants cheap airfares, and if they are going to get cheap ticket prices they've got to expect overcrowded conditions and not getting extras like they used to on the airlines," he said. "It's a bare bones, mass transit type of transportation now."

And airline employees are stretched thin because there are fewer of them. The major carriers have slashed more than 168,000 jobs in the past six years, thinning the ranks of pilots, flight attendants, bag handlers and ticket agents.

Northwest Airlines, for example, has reduced the number of its pilots for domestic flights by 26 percent since 2005. Partly because of that, the airline has suffered through a pilot shortage during the last week of June, because many pilots reached their limit on allowable flight time, and some are refusing to work voluntary overtime. That has forced Northwest this week to cancel more than a thousand flights.

Scott McCartney, travel columnist for The Wall Street Journal, wondered if airlines have finally pushed things too far. "They haven't invested in their product. They haven't been spending on customer service issues. And it's all catching up to them right now," said McCartney.

Airport and runways are also stretched to capacity. According to the Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, passenger travel is up 11 percent since the year 2000, but the number of flights is up much more than that -- by 32 percent.

The reason -- airlines have cut back on larger planes and substituted more frequent flights on smaller, regional jets. It gives passengers more options, but that also clogs up gates, tarmacs and runways causing more delays to get planes into the air.

The airlines insist most passengers are reaching their destinations in a timely fashion. Jim May, president of the Air Transport Association, which represents the major carriers, said, "I know that there are inexcusable examples that are out there of passengers that were treated in less than a cordial fashion, but I think on the whole the airlines are, in fact, doing a very credible job."

But thousands of passengers this summer clearly feel otherwise, and they are finding themselves in anything but happy skies. McCartney said he isn't taking any chances. He is about to go on vacation, and said that he's going by "car and boat."