July Statistics Show Improvement in Iraq

July 31, 2008— -- U.S. soldiers on the ground don't follow statistics. They follow their gut. And they can feel that things have improved in Iraq.

Joe Tyler of the 3rd Battalion, 29th Infantry Division says things have changed enormously since his last tour, in 2005, when his unit had multiple casualties.

"I really don't have to worry, 'Am I going to come back today?'" he said. "I'll be back in a couple of hours; I'll be able to talk to my family."

Six Americans were killed in combat in the month of July, compared to the 66 combat deaths in July 2007. It is the lowest number since the war began.

With the improvements in security, President Bush announced on Thursday that troop rotations in Iraq will be shortened from 15 to 12 months.

"The progress in Iraq has allowed us to continue our policy of return on success," Bush said. "We have now brought home all five of the combat brigades and the three Marine units that were sent to Iraq as part of the surge. The last of these surge brigades returned home this month."

President Bush and Gen. David Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, both hold out hope of bringing home more troops this year from the war.

Staff Sgt. Victor O'Dell of the 3rd Battalion, 29th Infantry Division knew that Bush's statement would be received well at home.

"My wife will be happy," said O'Dell. "She'll be very happy the tours are getting shorter. I think the 15-month tour was not a good idea."

O'Dell has completed seven months of his second tour in Iraq, escorting convoys around Baghdad. Unlike his first tour, O'Dell hasn't had to fire his weapon once while on patrol.

The turning point in Iraq was the surge, which began 18 months ago. As the surge began, U.S. fatalities actually went up, reaching their peak in May 2007 when 119 Americans died in combat in Iraq. Since then, violence has steeply declined, as U.S. troops set up bases in local neighborhoods, handed out reconstruction money and lured many Sunnis away from the insurgency.

Retired Gen. Jack Keane, an architect of the surge, said that the momentum in Iraq will continue.

"We knew that a counter-offensive would increase casualties," said Keane. "But we knew the net result of that, if it worked, would be lower casualties, and that is what has happened."

While the threat level has certainly diminished, the war is far from over in Iraq, as recent suicide bombing attacks in Baghdad made clear.

Petraeus stressed that it is too early to declare victory.

"As we have repeatedly said and cautioned against," Petraeus told ABC News' Terry McCarthy, "there will be further attacks."

Petraeus also acknowledged the "very difficult and very diabolical and murderous threat" posed by al Qaeda.

In fact, while there have been significant gains against al Qaeda in Iraq, violence has been increasing in Afghanistan. There were 16 U.S. troop s killed in Afghanistan in July -- the second highest total since the war began.

ABC News' Terry McCarthy contributed to this report.