After Three Years, Iraq War Far from Resolved

March 20, 2006 — -- Three years ago, the bombs started falling in Baghdad in advance of an American-led invasion -- and today, rhetorical bombs continue to fly between opposing camps with very different views on the war's successes, its failures and its future.

President Bush said Sunday that the sacrifices that have been made -- and the ones to come -- will pay off for Iraq and America.

"We are implementing a strategy that will lead to victory in Iraq," he said, "and a victory in Iraq will make this country more secure and will help lay the foundation of peace for generations to come."

But, in an interview on British television, the former prime minister of Iraq, Ayad Allawi, said his country already has descended into civil war.

"If this is not civil war," he told the BBC, "then God knows what civil war is."

Here in the United States, politicians, lead by former hawk Rep. John Murtha, D-Pa., are increasingly decrying the war and calling for an "exit strategy" that will bring troops home sooner rather than later.

"We can only do so much," Murtha said. "We can't be a police for the whole world. We can't nation build. You've got to have the support of the Iraqi people -- we've lost the support of the Iraqi people. They had their election, it's time to turn it over to them."

A new Newsweek poll says Americans disapprove of Bush's handling of the war by a more than 2-1 margin. Sixty-five percent said they disapproved, while 29 percent approved. The poll had a 3 percent margin of error.

'It Continues to Improve'

But faced with the all the unpopularity and uncertainty, Bush and his advisers remained upbeat. Administration officials were relentlessly on-message Sunday as they marked the three-year anniversary.

The tone was set by the president himself. As he returned to the White House from Camp David, Bush stopped to deliver his message of progress and patience.

"Now the Iraqi leaders are working together to enact a government that reflects the will of the people," Bush told reporters. "And so I'm encouraged by the progress."

Other top administration officials echoed the president's upbeat tone in a full-court press over the airwaves.

"It continues to improve day by day," Vice President Dick Cheney told CBS' "Face the Nation." "Those are the facts on the ground. That's the reality."

Said Gen. George Casey, the commanding general of the multi-national force in Iraq: "We continue to make great progress with the Iraqi security forces."

In The Washington Post Sunday, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld wrote: "Now is the time for resolve, not retreat. … Turning our backs on postwar Iraq today would be the modern equivalent of handing postwar Germany back to the Nazis."

The message reflected the administration's belief that the way the war is being reported is fueling public pessimism.

"There's a sort of perception, if you will, that's created because what's newsworthy is the car bomb in Baghdad," Cheney said. "It's not all the work that went on that day in 15 other provinces in terms of making progress toward rebuilding Iraq."

Sen. John Thune, R-S.D. said that he is still satisfied with the Senate's vote to approve the war almost three-and-a-half years ago. Now that the U.S. is there, the onus is to finish the mission.

"It was the right vote at the time," he said. "Even though a majority of Americans say it was a mistake to go there. A Majority would say it's a mistake to withdraw immediately. I believe we have a responsibility now that we're there to leave a stable government. That's what this has all been about. If we leave, there will be more genocide, more ethnic cleansing, more sectarian violence, more executions. You hear voices saying we need to withdraw immediately. I think that's a recipe for disaster."

Looking back on his decision to initially support the war, Murtha said he was misled.

"When we went to war I thought there were WMDs in Iraq," he said. "I thought there was a threat to national security … The whole world wants us out of there. The perception is we're occupiers; we've unified everybody against us. You cannot do nation-building when you're being shot at. We should set a schedule and that schedule would be incentive for the Iraqis to take over their own government. Sixty percent of Iraqis say there will be less chaos in Iraq once we get out."

'We're Beyond ... Public Relations Offensives'

But even some Republicans said optimistic words are not enough.

"We're beyond the American people buying into public relations offensives," Senate Foreign Relations Committee member Chuck Hagel, R-Neb., told ABC News' "This Week." "This is about policy now. This is about hard, cold facts and realities on the ground."

The cost of the war also is causing consternation. Back in 2002, before the war began, Bush's top budget official said it would cost $40 billion to $50 billion. But, so far, Congress has set aside about $400 billion for the war on terrorism, the vast majority for Iraq.

Some experts say the final price tag could reach as high as $1 trillion to $2 trillion.

Most observers on both sides agree that the United States still faces a difficult road ahead. So Bush is expected to try to build support for the war effort today when he gives a speech in Cleveland focusing on success stories in Iraq.

Bush Sunday said he used the anniversary to reflect on American servicemen and women -- including the 2,315 American troops who have died in the Iraq war, according to the Department of Defense, and the 17,124 who have been wounded.

Figures for Iraqis killed varies widely, but the total is believed to be well over 33,000, an estimate given by iraqbodycount.org.

Bush's presidency will likely be defined by his decision to invade Iraq. Members of his administration regularly remind journalists that history that will judge that decision, not the bloody background noise of the daily headlines. Yet, administration officials also readily admit these three years have not been easy ones.

"There's an economic cost, clearly and also a cost of human lives," Thune said. "We've lost a lot of young people and every loss of life is incredibly tragic. But at same time have to look at what we're trying to accomplish."

Three Vivid Years

When the first bombs fell three years ago, it touched off a series of events and images now emblazoned onto the national consciousness.

There was the fall of Saddam Hussein and the statue of him in Baghdad, the looting, the "Mission Accomplished" banner when Bush declared an end to major combat operations -- and then the insurgency.

Next came the capture of Saddam and the trial of the dictator that many Iraqis now call a "play." There was the shame of prisoner abuse photographed at Abu Ghraib, and then the elation of elections.

"This means my whole life," said Hiyam Salim, holding up an ink-stained finger after voting and serving as a poll worker.

Months after Iraqis last risked their lives to vote, the politicians still haven't formed a stable government, and terrorists are exploiting the power vacuum to try to provoke an all-out civil war.

Democracy 'Very Difficult'

Sunday, Salim -- who teaches grade school history -- said history teaches the need to be patient.

Democracy, she says, is "difficult, very difficult -- especially here in Iraq. We are not have background about democracy. … Saddam rules Iraq for 40 years. Violence. No development for anything."

For Murtha, the dire economic and political situation in Iraq is indicative of how the war has adversely effected the country.

"When the White House says how well things are going, I tell my staff to go back and get me the economic statistics," Murtha said. "Oil production below pre-war level, less than half the electricity -- in other words less than 10 hours a day -- in Baghdad, unemployment 60 percent. ... The president says we're going to have victory. What is victory? It's open-ended. We have to give the Iraqis the incentive to get out. "

Patience can be difficult when daily life is a struggle. Since the war:

Many parents are afraid to let their children play outside.

Nearly 13 million fewer Iraqis have drinkable water.

In Baghdad, there's electricity for less than four hours a day.

And, in a country with the second-largest oil reserves in the world, people have to wait in gas lines for up to 12 hours.

'I Still Believe'

On the flipside, the toppling of Saddam has given Iraqis the freedom to demonstrate, start newspapers, get satellite TV and use cell phones. To boot, the United States and its partners have helped fix up 825 schools, 13 hospitals and 302 police stations.

ABC News spoke to U.S. soldiers sitting on the deck of one of Saddam's former palaces.

"I still believe in what I do," said Lt. Col. Joe Gandera, "otherwise I wouldn't be here."

"How long will we be here?" Lt. Col. Troy Smith asked rhetorically. "We'll be here 'til it's done."

For supporters like Thune, winning the war in Iraq is crucial not only for the United States, but for the entire international community.

"It's about our own safety, our own national security and trying to make the world safer place," Thune said. "Commanders in the region say this should be conditions-based and when the conditions are right when we've accomplished our mission there, then it's appropriate to draw down forces…I don't think an evacuation would be a victory. I don't think the international community -- in as much as they want to say rhetorically, see the U.S. get out of there -- I think they also want to see us to finish the job."

"It's definitely worth it," added Lt. Col. Darron Wright. "Freedom has a price and we're paying it. We paid it in our own country when we won our independence."

ABC News' Dan Harris and John Yang originally reported this story for "World News Tonight."