Despite Recent Suicide Bombs, Violence Appears Calmer in Baghdad

BAGHDAD, Iraq, March 6, 2007 — -- Two suicide bombers killed at least 149 Shiite pilgrims today in the town of Hillah south of Baghdad.

The pilgrims were making their way toward the town of Karbala, 60 miles south of Baghdad, for a religious festival due to start Friday. The bombers had mingled with the crowd when it stopped at a roadside tent, where they detonated the explosive vests hidden under their clothes.

Iraqi officials say Sunni insurgents are systematically targeting Shiite pilgrims ahead of this weekend's festival of Arbain, which draws believers from all over the country. At least 12 other attacks have been made against pilgrims over the past two days, killing more than two dozen people.

Impact of the Troop Surge

In previous years these pilgrims have been protected by Shiite militias, but in the past three weeks as the U.S. military has started to send more soldiers into Baghdad as part of a planned surge of 21,000 troops, many of these militiamen have disappeared from the streets. This leaves the pilgrims more vulnerable to attack.

U.S. troops have been surprised at how quickly the militias have melted away. Six hundred U.S. troops have pushed into Sadr City over the past three days, and while it's the stronghold of anti-American cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, so far they have met no resistance.

"We still see some militias, but I think their activities have decreased," one man told ABC News,

This is in stark contrast to the last big U.S. push into Sadr City in 2004, which led to fierce street fighting with heavy casualties on both sides.

The main reason appears to be that for now the militias have melted away rather than confront the well-armed Americans.

Despite recent deadly attacks outside Baghdad, many people who spoke to ABC News inside the city say they sense things have started to change since the U.S. surge began.

Commerce is making a comeback -- markets are more crowded and some stores that had closed have reopened -- and death squad killings are down.

But Iraq is still fighting a sectarian war. The U.S. surge may have changed the terms of engagement in Baghdad for the time being, but it remains to be seen whether that has changed the direction of the war.