'08 Campaign Cash Race Claims First Casualty

Feb. 24, 2007 — -- Former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack's early exodus from the 2008 presidential race is likely the first of many instances of candidates leaving the campaign trail after discovering they lack the funds to compete in what promises to be the most expensive campaign in presidential history, analysts say.

Vilsack, who bowed out Friday, had a key home state and a popular anti-war message. The Democrat drew hearty applause when he told Jay Leno on an appearance on "The Tonight Show" that if elected, "We're going to bring our troops home."

"The reality, however, is that this process has become, to a great extent, about money -- a lot of money," Vilsack said in announcing his withdrawal from the race. "So it is money, and only money, that is the reason that we are leaving today."

He raised more than $1 million last year. But Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., raised $1.5 million in a single day in Hollywood last week and former Republican Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney brought in $6.5 million in one day last month.

"Money's first and foremost, and the name of the game," said Stuart Rothenberg of The Rothenberg Political Report.

In 1952, the last time there was no incumbent in the race, Dwight Eisenhower won after spending $6.6 million in the general election. Political analysts estimate that by the time it's over this time, the Republican and Democratic nominees will have spent $500 million a piece.

"We're really entering a perfect storm in terms of presidential fundraising that is setting the stage for the most money raised and spent in American history," Commissioner Michael Toner of the Federal Election Commission told ABC News.

With outside spending from political parties, labor unions and special interest groups, Rothenberg and others expect the 2008 race for the White House to cost $2 billion to $3 billion dollars.

It remains largely a mystery how much candidates have raised this year. They don't have to disclose those amounts until the first campaign finance report is due on April 15.

But the big spenders are likely to include Democrats Obama, Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York, former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina and Republicans Romney, Sen. John McCain of Arizona and former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani.

"We have to have a real debate about public financing and the ability to enable the primary and the caucus process to be about ideas," Vilsack said, "not simply about a money primary."

Vilsack will likely not be the last of the lesser-known candidates to drop out early -- squeezed out by big-name fundraisers.

"They're like these large planets that have already blotted out the sun for those second- and third-tier candidates who are hoping to get enough light to take off," Rothenberg said.

In the 2000 primary election, then-Gov. George Bush of Texas spent a record $100 million, refusing public funding. This time, analysts say candidates who fail to raise that amount by the end of 2007 will likely lose credibility among primary voters.

Analysts say it is likely that none of the leading candidates will accept public funding because of the spending limits that come with it. If the two nominees both eschewed public funding, it would be the first time since 1972 that a general election was held using entirely private funding.