China Prepares First Manned Space Mission

Oct. 7, 2003 -- -- The countdown clock is running at the Jiuquan Space Center on the edge of the Gobi Desert in northern China.

The mission? Launch China's first man into space — a mission that could ignite a new space race.

The Schenzou 5 spacecraft looks remarkably similar to the Russian Soyuz, but the Schenzou is 13 percent bigger, with improved propulsion, control and guidance systems. It also has a second set of solar panels.

The Schenzou is capable of carrying three Chinese astronauts — called "taikonauts." The command module sits atop a service module to be launched on a Chang Zheng 2F rocket.

The 30-day countdown clock started Sept. 15, so the launch could happen as early as Oct. 15. Experts expect the mission to be short — launching in daylight and landing in daylight, and lasting eight hours at the most.

China has trained a dozen taikonauts, but only one is expected to fly in this first mission. Speculation centers on Chen Long as the taikonaut most likely to rocket into low Earth orbit later this month.

Not much is known about the taikonauts. They and their families are sequestered at the training center.

Lessons From Old Space Race

What will this mission mean to the United States? Some hope it will re-ignite another space race similar to the panic set off in the United States when the Soviet Union launched Sputnik in the 1950s.

Dr. Joan Johnson-Freese, of the Naval War College, has studied the Chinese Space Program for 20 years, and said the Chinese have learned from the U.S. program.

"I am convinced they read the Apollo playbook and have decided — for all the reasons the U.S. launched Apollo — a successful launch would do much the same for them," she said. "Look at the prestige value, the domestic rallying. They have plastered the country with posters of the taikonauts. This will give them legitimacy and credibility, much as bringing the Olympics to China."

The Chinese have already successfully launched four unmanned Schenzous into space, so observers expect little problem with this launch.

Craig Covault, senior editor with Aviation Week & Space Technology, has traveled to China six times to observe the program firsthand.

"I think they are quite likely to have a successful human space flight," he said. "They have approached it not as a race, but as a project they are taking the necessary time to do right. So I think they will succeed in the end in not only having a good first flight, but a series of manned space flights over the next five years."

Ambitious Astrological Aims

The Chinese leadership has pledged to make it to the moon by the end of the decade, a promise that hearkens back to President John F. Kennedy's speech in 1961.

"I believe that this nation should commit itself to achieving the goal, before this decade is out, of landing a man on the moon and returning him safely to the Earth," Kennedy said. "No single space project … will be more exciting, or more impressive to mankind, or more important … and none will be so difficult or expensive to accomplish."

China has mapped out an ambitious space program to the year 2040 including:

• Several taikonaut launches on the Schenzou.

• Building a space laboratory and linking two modules together.

• A moon landing by 2010, leading to polar bases for science.

• An unmanned mission to Mars by 2040.

International Partnership in the Stars?

China has long wished to be a partner in the International Space Station, but has been prevented from joining the partnership because of its record on human rights, military proliferation issues and technology transfer concerns.

But Johnson-Freese thinks a partnership between the United States and China is inevitable.

"Look at our partnership with Russia, a partnership that was unthinkable during the Cold War," she said. "It will eventually happen with China. But again, it is all determined by politics."

Covault agreed, saying, "I think it will start with small science payloads that are Chinese flying on the station. And then some years down the road, [there will be] the launch of a Chinese astronaut on the shuttle, [and] then, perhaps 10 years from now, allowing the Schenzou to dock on the station."

'We Wish Them Success'

The reaction from NASA? Assistant shuttle program manager Wayne Hale wished the Chinese well during briefings on the future of the U.S. space shuttle at the Johnson Space Center in Houston two weeks ago.

"I wish them good luck because putting people into space is a dangerous and difficult thing to do," Hale said. "And we wish them success in their endeavors. And we wish them safe travel, and certainly hope their taikonauts make it back to earth safely at the end of their mission."

NASA's space shuttle fleet is grounded while it modifies its three remaining orbiters to meet recommendations issued by the Columbia Accident Investigation Board.

If China launches the Schenzou on Oct. 15, it will be three days before Russia launches another Soyuz carrying a crew of three to the International Space Station. Michael Foale, Alexander Kaleri and Pedro Duque are scheduled to blast off from Kazakhstan on Oct. 18.

NASA is dependent on the Russians to ferry crews and supplies back and forth to the ISS while the shuttle fleet is grounded. The earliest shuttle flight is not scheduled until September 2004.

Observers don't expect a live broadcast of the launch. The program is run by the Chinese military.

"The Chinese are aware the space successes are spectacular, but so too are space failures," Johnson-Freese said.

First word of a launch in China is likely to come from the U.S. military, which will be closely tracking the Schenzou 5.