More change is entirely possible.
Seventeen percent of likely voters remain movable, meaning they haven't definitely made up their minds. And movability peaks among some of the swing groups that indeed have been moving: Twenty-eight percent of white Catholics, 25 percent of independents and 23 percent of Midwesterners are movable. Some of their numbers have changed preferences; some well could again.
Swing groups, however, haven't been the only ones to move.
There also have been sharp changes in voter preference among other groups, including postgraduates, independent women and non-evangelical white Protestants. And it's tightened among white men as well – 54-40 percent for McCain, compared with 62-34 percent after the conventions.
Among election issues, the economy is in the driver's seat.
A near-unanimous 91 percent of likely voters say it's in bad shape -- not so good (33 percent) or poor (58 percent). The distinction matters: Among those who say the economy's merely not good, McCain leads by 61-34 percent. Those who say it's poor favor Obama, 69-26 percent.
Other economic views cut similarly. Among people who say the economy's the most important issue, Obama leads by 61-35 percent; their rising number, again, boosts him. Among those who pick all other issues combined, McCain leads, 54-42 percent.
Obama leads by 61-35 percent among people who are worried about the economy's future and by 73-22 percent among those who are very worried; among those who aren't worried, McCain's favored by 79-15 percent. Similarly, those worried about their own family's finances favor Obama by 2-1; not worried, McCain by 21 points.
In another measure, 51 percent of registered voters say the economy's in a serious long-term decline, vs. 45 percent who say it's "a normal downturn that will correct itself before too long." This was a little worse before the 1992 election – 56-37 percent. It, too, strongly cuts to vote.
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