Undecided races of the 2024 election: Live results and analysis

Of the 435 House seats that were up for grab on Election Day, only five are considered true toss-ups. Of that number, two of the seats are in California (the 22nd and 45th Districts), one seat is in Iowa (the 1st District), one is in New York (the 19th District) and the final seat is in Washington (the 3rd District).

We might be waiting a little bit until all of these races are called — in California, for instance, just over half of the expected vote share is in. But what we know so far seems to suggest Republican victories in three seats, and Democratic wins in the remaining two. If these trends hold true, that would amount to just one flipped seat in Democrats' favor: in New York's 19th District. While ABC News has yet to project a winner, the Associated Press called the race for Democrat Josh Riley late Tuesday evening. The stakes here are high: The New York Times reported that there was roughly $45 million spent on this contest alone. If Riley holds on, his win would represent the second flip for Democrats in The Empire State. On Tuesday evening, state Senator John Mannion, a Democrat, defeated incumbent Republican Rep. Brandon Williams in the neighboring 22nd District.

In the remaining four toss-up races, it looks like the incumbent legislators will pull through — but only by a thread. In Iowa's 1st District, for instance, Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks leads Democrat Christina Bohannan, with a lead of less than 1,000 votes and 99% of the expected vote in. The second-closest race may be Washington's 3rd District, where Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez currently leads her challenger, Joe Kent, by four percentage points.

The presidential race may be decided, but here at 538, we are just getting started tracking election results. There are still dozens of unprojected races in the House and Senate, and we will use this live blog to track them all until the last race is projected or we collapse from exhaustion (whichever comes first).

The biggest missing piece of the puzzle right now is the House of Representatives. Either party could still win control there, although Republicans are in a better position right now. ABC News has projected that the GOP will win at least 204 seats and Democrats will win at least 190.

Meanwhile, ABC News has already projected that Republicans will win the Senate, but we still don’t know how big that majority is going to be. Republicans currently have 52 seats, but six states remain unprojected, and Republicans look like they could easily win some of those (e.g., Pennsylvania or Nevada).

Needless to say, the results of these races have big policy implications. If Democrats manage to win the House, they will have veto power over much of Trump’s agenda. Even if Republicans win the House by a narrow margin, they could find it difficult to govern given the rancor within their caucus. And in the Senate, there’s a big difference between 52 Republican seats (where moderate Republican senators might be able to hold up parts of Trump’s agenda) and 54 or 55 Republican seats (where they would be able to pass bills, and confirm judges and Cabinet members, more easily).