Undecided races of the 2024 election: Live results and analysis

ABC News is projecting a Trump win in Michigan. He won it in 2016 but it had swung to Biden in 2020. A big issue this year was the Israel-Hamas war. Michigan is home to one of the largest Arab American populations in the United States, and voters there were torn about whether to back Harris after she did not call for a ceasefire in Gaza. Trump has signaled that he will be more supportive of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu than the Biden administration in a second term.

We've been tracking 13 House races that we rated as "likely Republican" based on our final forecast. ABC News has projected that Republicans will win seven of those. The remaining races are unprojected, but Republicans are leading in all of these:

In seats that we rated "lean Republican," six out of 10 have been projected for Republicans. Among the unprojected races, one Democrat currently leads: Kirsten Engel in Arizona's 6th District, with 59% of the vote reporting.

We’ve been tracking 30 House races that we rated as “likely Democratic” based on our final forecast. ABC News has projected Democrats to win in around half of those races so far:

Among the seven races still yet to be projected, Democrats are also slightly ahead in all but two — but there are some in which we likely won’t know the results for days. California’s 13th Congressional District still has less than half of the expected vote reporting. And some are shaping up to be nail-biters: In Nevada’s 3rd and Maryland’s 6th, Democratic candidates are leading by less than a percentage point.

Unsurprisingly, the seats that were rated “lean Democratic” are even more up in the air. Democrat Kristen McDonald Rivet has been projected to win Michigan’s 8th congressional district, while Republican Rob. Bresnahan has been projected to defeat Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright in Pennsylvania’s 8th. Leads in the other 6 races are split evenly between Republicans and Democrats at the moment, but Republicans could very well pick up at least one more of these competitive seats:

With the presidential election and control of the Senate projected to go to Republicans, whether Republicans can keep or expand their hold on the House will have a big impact on whether Trump can enact much of his second term agenda, and these races will be critical in deciding that.

I'm still watching several Congressional races where women are competitive — that is, those that 538's forecast rated as "Toss-Up" or "Lean" Democratic or Republican. Just a couple of these races have been called so far, and women won both: In Michigan's 8th District, ABC News is projecting that Kristen McDonald Rivet, the Democrat, will win that open race, defeating Paul Junge. In Virginia's 2nd District, ABC News is projecting that Rep. Jen Kiggans, the Republican, will keep her seat for a second term; she was facing a female challenger, Missy Cotter Smasal.

Elsewhere, we are still waiting. As Alex just mentioned, Iowa's 1st District has not yet been projected, even with 99% of the expected vote reporting. But a woman will win either way in this close race.

Oregon's 5th is another matchup between two women. The Democrat, Janelle Bynum, leads Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer 48% to 45%, with 72% of the expected vote reporting.

A couple female Democratic incumbents are currently trailing: Rep. Susan Wild in Pennsylvania's 7th and Rep. Mary Peltola in Alaska's at-large district. Female Democratic incumbents currently leading include Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez in Washington's 3rd, and Rep. Yadira Caraveo in Colorado's 8th. Republican incumbent Rep. Michelle Steel in California's 45th is currently leading with 63% of the expected vote reporting. But these are yet to be projected, so we are keeping an eye on them, and will update as we know more.