Undecided races of the 2024 election: Live results and analysis

Once again, one of the main takeaways of the 2024 election is that Republicans increased their margins among Latino voters. Texas saw this, too, and the side effects were especially pronounced.

In the U.S. Senate race, for instance, where Ted Cruz pummeled his Democratic opponent by 8 percentage points, the Republican incumbent won Latinos by a six point margin. Compare this to 2018, when the same bloc overwhelming went for Democrat Beto O'Rourke.

Indeed, it's incredible to witness just how far South Texas moved to the right this year — but Democrats were already losing ground in this region. In 2016, Hillary won the 28 counties in South Texas or near the border by a combined 39 percentage points, compared with Biden's 17 point win in 2020. This year, however, some of the biggest counties along the Rio Grande Valley went for Trump. In Hidalgo County, the most populous in the RGV, Trump currently leads Harris by 3 percentage points. Compare this to 2020, when Biden won the county by nearly 17 points.

It's unclear whether this rightward march will affect the outstanding border-area House race in Texas. While incumbents Henry Cuellar (a Democrat) and Monica De La Cruz (a Republican) were able to fend off challengers in the 28th and 15th Districts, respectively, the available vote totals show an increasingly close race in Texas's 34th District. In this race, Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez only narrowly leads Mayra Flores, 51% to 49%, with 99% of the expected vote in.

Part of the reason this race, in particular, is so close is because national Republicans poured a ton of money into helping Flores, who briefly held the seat from 2022 to 2023 before she was unseated by Gonzalez. The available evidence suggests that this race is still close, but remains Gonzalez's to lose.

ABC News is projecting a Trump win in Michigan. He won it in 2016 but it had swung to Biden in 2020. A big issue this year was the Israel-Hamas war. Michigan is home to one of the largest Arab American populations in the United States, and voters there were torn about whether to back Harris after she did not call for a ceasefire in Gaza. Trump has signaled that he will be more supportive of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu than the Biden administration in a second term.

We've been tracking 13 House races that we rated as "likely Republican" based on our final forecast. ABC News has projected that Republicans will win seven of those. The remaining races are unprojected, but Republicans are leading in all of these:

In seats that we rated "lean Republican," six out of 10 have been projected for Republicans. Among the unprojected races, one Democrat currently leads: Kirsten Engel in Arizona's 6th District, with 59% of the vote reporting.

We’ve been tracking 30 House races that we rated as “likely Democratic” based on our final forecast. ABC News has projected Democrats to win in around half of those races so far:

Among the seven races still yet to be projected, Democrats are also slightly ahead in all but two — but there are some in which we likely won’t know the results for days. California’s 13th Congressional District still has less than half of the expected vote reporting. And some are shaping up to be nail-biters: In Nevada’s 3rd and Maryland’s 6th, Democratic candidates are leading by less than a percentage point.

Unsurprisingly, the seats that were rated “lean Democratic” are even more up in the air. Democrat Kristen McDonald Rivet has been projected to win Michigan’s 8th congressional district, while Republican Rob. Bresnahan has been projected to defeat Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright in Pennsylvania’s 8th. Leads in the other 6 races are split evenly between Republicans and Democrats at the moment, but Republicans could very well pick up at least one more of these competitive seats:

With the presidential election and control of the Senate projected to go to Republicans, whether Republicans can keep or expand their hold on the House will have a big impact on whether Trump can enact much of his second term agenda, and these races will be critical in deciding that.