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Undecided races of the 2024 election: Live results and analysis

We're tracking unresolved races in the Senate, House and more.

Last Updated: November 6, 2024, 12:47 PM EST

Former President Donald Trump has won back the White House, and Republicans have won control of the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives. But we still don't know how big the GOP's Senate and House majorities will be, since there are still several races that don't have a projected winner. The outcomes of these elections could have major implications for how easy it will be for Trump to enact his second-term agenda.

However, it could be a while before we know who won these races. California — home to multiple undecided House races — is still working through counting all its ballots. Other races will require ranked-choice voting to resolve. And still others, like Pennsylvania's Senate race, could go to a recount.

We at 538 will be tracking it all on this live blog dedicated to all the outstanding races of the 2024 election. Join us for live updates, analysis and commentary until the last major race is decided.

Nathaniel Rakich Image
Nov 12, 2024, 2:18 PM EST

Ranked-choice tabulations are underway in Maine

Today, Maine election officials started running ranked-choice tabulations in the still-unresolved race for Maine's 2nd Congressional District. However, it could take days before they are finished and able to declare a winner. If you want, you can watch the process live here:

We already know that Democratic Rep. Jared Golden received 196,189 first-place votes, Republican state Rep. Austin Theriault received 194,030 first-place votes, write-in candidate Diane Merenda received 420 first-place votes, and 12,635 ballots left the first choice blank. But because Maine uses ranked-choice voting, votes for Merenda and blank votes will be redistributed to the candidate those ballots ranked second (or third, if someone used their first two slots for Merenda and a blank). Because of the gap separating Golden and Theriault, there would need to be thousands of "hidden" Theriault voters among those blank ballots in order for him to win, which is quite unlikely.

Monica Potts Image
Nov 12, 2024, 10:09 AM EST

Republicans hold on in Arizona's 1st Congressional District

PHOTO: (R) Key Race Projected
ABC News

Late Monday evening, ABC News reported that Republican Rep. David Schweikert is projected to win reelection in Arizona's 1st Congressional District. The wealthy area outside of Phoenix is a GOP stronghold that had been trending more Democratic during the Trump era, giving Democrats hope they could flip the seat. But Schweikert, a seven-term incumbent who's been convicted of numerous campaign finance ethics violations during his tenure, is projected to hold on with 52% of the vote to Democratic physician Amish Shah's 48%, with nearly all of the expected vote reporting.

Geoffrey Skelley Image
Nov 12, 2024, 10:08 AM EST

Democrats flip California's 27th District

PHOTO: (D) Key Race Projected
ABC News

California has offered a rare ray of sunshine for Democrats in this election, as ABC News reports that Democrat George Whitesides is projected to defeat Republican Rep. Mike Garcia in the state's 27th District, handing Democrats a GOP-held House seat in the northern Los Angeles suburbs. With 88% of the expected vote reporting, Whitesides leads Garcia 51.2% to 48.8%.

Garcia is the fourth House Republican incumbent projected to lose in the 2024 election, but the first outside of New York, which is home to the other three who've gone down. To be clear, Garcia was always in a tough spot: He's routinely had to defend a district that leaned slightly toward Democrats at the presidential level, but he managed to win three times — first in a 2019 special election to pick up the seat from the Democrats, then reelection in 2020 and again in 2022 to retain it for the GOP. But Democrats finally were able to flip his seat back.

Nathaniel Rakich Image
Nov 12, 2024, 12:18 AM EST

Democrats projected to win Arizona’s Senate seat

PHOTO: (D) Key Race Projected
ABC News

ABC News reports that Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego is projected to win Arizona's U.S. Senate race. After a large batch of votes from Maricopa County was reported tonight, Gallego leads Republican Kari Lake 50% to 48%.

This is a crucial hold for Democrats and guarantees them at least 47 seats in the next Senate (the only unresolved Senate race is now Pennsylvania, which is likely but not certain to go to Republicans). Gallego is also the fourth Senate Democrat this year to win in a state carried by Trump; my colleague Geoffrey Skelley examined this seeming spike in split-ticket voting in an article on Monday.

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