Undecided races of the 2024 election: Live results and analysis

Last night, California counties updated their vote tallies, and the margin in the state's 13th District U.S. House race is now just 0.1 percentage points. Republican Rep. John Duarte leads Democrat Adam Gray 50.05% to 49.95%, a raw vote margin of only 194 votes. It appears that there are roughly 5,000 unprocessed ballots left to count in the district, around half of which will come from Gray's home base of Merced County. But as Nathaniel pointed out last night, the race is so close that it could come down to "uncured ballots," which are ballots that have a signature issue that voters need to go and fix in order for their vote to count. There may be around 4,000 of those in the district, too. How this race will pan out is really anyone's guess at this point.

They're still counting ballots in California's 45th District, one of three U.S. House districts where a winner hasn't yet been projected. Last night, the two counties that are (partially) covered by the 45th District, Los Angeles and Orange, both reported new results, and they extended Democrat Derek Tran's lead over Republican Rep. Michelle Steel from 397 votes to 480 votes. There hasn't been a day that has resulted in more new ballots counted for Steel than for Tran since Nov. 6, so the trends here are favorable for Tran. However, there's no guarantee that those trends will continue, and with about 6,000 ballots left to process (according to my rough calculations), this race is still up in the air.

ABC News reports that Republican Dave McCormick is projected to defeat Democratic Sen. Bob Casey Jr. in Pennsylvania's U.S. Senate race. Casey conceded the race on Thursday. The not-yet-finalized results from Pennsylvania give McCormick about a 0.2-point lead, 48.8% to 48.6% — a raw vote lead of about 16,000 votes out of nearly 7 million cast. McCormick's victory over the three-term incumbent is a moderate upset, as 538's forecast gave him about a 3 in 10 shot of winning. With this projection, Republicans are set to have a 53-to-47 majority in the Senate at the start of the 119th Congress.

ABC News reports that Republican Nick Begich is projected to win Alaska's at-large U.S. House seat. The Last Frontier counted its last ballots yesterday, and Begich received 48.4% of the first-place votes, Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola received 46.4%, Alaska Independence Party candidate John Wayne Howe received 3.9%, and Democrat Eric Hafner received 1.0%.

However, because no candidate received a majority of first-place votes, ranked-choice voting was required to determine the winner. (In Alaska, voters can rank the four candidates on the ballot in order of preference.) Hafner was eliminated first because he got the fewest first-place votes, and his votes were redistributed to his voters' second choices. Then, Howe was eliminated, and the same thing happened to his voters. At that point, Begich had 51.3% of the vote and Peltola had 48.7%, making Begich the winner.

Begich's victory means that Republicans have won at least 219 House seats in the 2024 election, although the GOP caucus is temporarily down a member because former Rep. Matt Gaetz, who was reelected on Nov. 5, resigned on Nov. 13. Democrats, meanwhile, will have at least 213 seats. We're down to only three unprojected seats now!

P.S. Alaska being done counting also means that we have a final unofficial result for Ballot Measure 2, the initiative to repeal ranked-choice voting in the state. It's currently losing by just 664 votes. However, supporters of the measure are expected to request a recount, so the repeal effort hasn't definitively failed yet.