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Undecided races of the 2024 election: Live results and analysis

We're tracking who will win the House and other outstanding contests.

Last Updated: November 6, 2024, 12:47 PM EST

The presidential race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris has been decided, but there are still several downballot races where the winner isn't yet apparent. Control of the House of Representatives is still up in the air, and while ABC News has projected that Republicans will win the Senate, the size of their majority is still TBD. Needless to say, both of these things will have major implications for how easy it will be for Trump to enact his second-term agenda.

However, it could be a while before we know who won these races. Many of them are in states like California, Arizona and Nevada that take days to count all their ballots. So we at 538 are settling in for the long haul with this live blog dedicated to all the outstanding races of the 2024 election. Join us for live updates, analysis and commentary until the last major race is decided.

Key Headlines

Here's how the news is developing.
Nathaniel Rakich Image
Nov 07, 2024, 1:48 PM EST

The size of Republicans' Senate majority is very important

We already know Republicans are going to control the Senate next year — so why are we still tracking any races there? Because the exact number of seats Republicans win is super important.

So far, the GOP has clinched at least 52 Senate seats. By recent standards, that's a downright huge majority (remember, the Senate was tied 50-50 in 2021-22 and Democrats had just a 51-49 majority in 2023-24), but Trump and whoever the next Senate majority leader is would probably prefer more of a cushion. That's because there are a number of Republican senators — namely, Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, Todd Young and Bill Cassidy — who are no fans of Trump and might not be an automatic vote for his agenda or appointees. If Republicans only win 52 seats, that bloc could serve as a check on Trump if they choose to. However, if Republicans get up to 54 seats, bills could still pass even if all four of those senators defect (thanks to Vice President JD Vance's tie-breaking vote).

The size of Republicans' majority also makes a huge difference to the battle for Senate control in 2026. Democrats don't have a ton of pickup opportunities on the 2026 Senate map: Maine and North Carolina are probably the best ones, but Ohio, Texas and Iowa could be competitive as well. If Republicans stay at 52 seats, then Democrats have a plausible path to winning back the chamber by flipping the first two and maybe picking off one of the others too. But if Republicans get up to 54 seats, Democrats would have to win all five of those seats (and not lose any of their own). That's a tall order.

G. Elliott Morris Image
Nov 07, 2024, 12:36 PM EST

Ranked-choice ballots in Alaska could decide House control

Republicans currently lead the race for House control, 208 seats to 193 for the Democrats, according to projections reported by ABC News. There are 34 outstanding House seats. The GOP need to win 10 more of those (a total of 218) to win a majority in the chamber.

Republicans currently lead vote counts in 13 seats: 1 remaining Solid Republican seats 3 Likely Republican seats, and 4 Lean Republicans. They lead in 3 Toss-up seats and 2 Lean Democrat seats. If Republicans win all of these seats, they would win 221 seats in the House, one seat fewer than the party won in the 2022 midterms.

However, it's likely that Republicans do not win all the seats they currently lead in. The race for the House is still firmly up in the air. But it will take some time for us to know the results. That's because there will likely be a recount in IA-01, where the Republican candidate leads by 0.1 percentage points. And five of the remaining Republican-advantage seats are in California, where will take a few days in most races, and a few weeks in some, to finish counting enough ballots to know whether one candidate has an insurmountable lead.

Then, there's Alaska's At-Large district. Per the Alaska secretary of state, the Last Frontier is done reporting any new votes until Nov. 12. Additional ballots will be counted through Nov. 15. The race there is currently way too close to identify a leader. With 71 percent of the vote reporting, the Republican candidate, Nick Begich, currently leads with 49.8% percent of the vote. But that would not be enough to win the seat; Alaska uses ranked-choice voting, so the results you’ll see through Nov. 15 will reflect voters’ first choices only. If no candidate receives a majority of first-place votes, we won’t know the winner until Nov. 20, when the state runs its ranked-choice tabulations.

That means if the race for control of the House is comes down to one or two seats, we may not know who wins until the 20th. And no matter what happens, if the Republicans do win, at this rate, they'll have a very tenuous majority in which it will be tough to get anything done.

Nov 07, 2024, 12:21 PM EST

Who's on track to win Arizona?

Arizona is one of two states in which we still don't know who won the presidential election and one of four where the Senate winner is still uncertain.

With 70% of the expected vote reporting in the presidential race, Trump currently has 52% and Harris has 47%. If you do the math, Harris would need to win about 56% of the outstanding vote in order to take the lead.

How can Harris win Arizona?
Amina Brown and Katie Marriner for 538

But with 70% of the expected vote reporting in the U.S. Senate race, Gallego is at 50% and Lake is at 48%. Lake would need to win at least about 52% of the uncounted ballots to emerge victorious.

PHOTO: Republican Kari Lake needs about 52 percent or more to win the senate race in Arizona.
How can Republican Kari Lake win Arizona's U.S. Senate race?
Katie Marriner and Amina Brown for 538

Jacob Rubashkin Image
Nov 07, 2024, 11:35 AM EST

The Maine Event

Hi everyone! Now that my time on ABC News’s House Decision Desk has come to a close, I’ll be chiming in here over the next few days as we get final results in outstanding races across the country.

First up is in Maine, where ABC News reports that Harris is projected to win statewide. She currently leads, 53% to 45%. But Maine is one of the two states that allocates electoral votes by congressional district, and Trump carried the 2nd District, so the state’s electoral votes actually split 3 for Harris and 1 for Trump.

If you’re wondering why there’s no projection in the Senate race despite Sen. Angus King currently running 18 points ahead of his nearest opponent, that’s because King has 52 percent of the vote, and will need to finish with above 50 percent to avoid heading to a ranked choice voting instant runoff against his two opponents, Republican Demi Kouzounas and Democrat David Costello. King would be highly favored in an instant runoff as well.

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