Undecided races of the 2024 election: Live results and analysis

Let's take a step back and look at where things stand in the House of Representatives. While control of the House hasn't been projected yet, Republicans are pretty clear favorites to reach the magic number of 218 seats eventually. They're currently at 215 seats to Democrats' 206. And out of the 14 still-unresolved races, Republicans currently lead in seven:

So when might we get the three Republican projections that would put them over the top? The biggest Republican lead is in California's 22nd District, and we're expecting to get another vote update there tonight; if it doesn't drastically cut into the GOP lead, that race might soon come off the board. We may also get a projection soon in Arizona's 6th District and California's 41st District, where late-counted ballots haven't notably diminished the Republicans' leads, although there are still thousands of ballots left to count. In Iowa's 1st District, counties will certify results today and tomorrow, but the race is within recount range, and Democrats have until Nov. 18 to request one, which could delay a projection (although recounts rarely change election results).

The remaining GOP-led districts could take longer to project — if Republicans even win them at all. In California's 13th and 45th Districts, Democrats have been gaining on Republicans as mail-in ballots have been counted, and they may very well pull into a slim lead by the end. And in Alaska's at-large district, ranked-choice voting will likely determine the winner, and ranked-choice tabulations won't take place until Nov. 20.

Today, Maine election officials started running ranked-choice tabulations in the still-unresolved race for Maine's 2nd Congressional District. However, it could take days before they are finished and able to declare a winner. If you want, you can watch the process live here:

We already know that Democratic Rep. Jared Golden received 196,189 first-place votes, Republican state Rep. Austin Theriault received 194,030 first-place votes, write-in candidate Diane Merenda received 420 first-place votes, and 12,635 ballots left the first choice blank. But because Maine uses ranked-choice voting, votes for Merenda and blank votes will be redistributed to the candidate those ballots ranked second (or third, if someone used their first two slots for Merenda and a blank). Because of the gap separating Golden and Theriault, there would need to be thousands of "hidden" Theriault voters among those blank ballots in order for him to win, which is quite unlikely.

Late Monday evening, ABC News reported that Republican Rep. David Schweikert is projected to win reelection in Arizona's 1st Congressional District. The wealthy area outside of Phoenix is a GOP stronghold that had been trending more Democratic during the Trump era, giving Democrats hope they could flip the seat. But Schweikert, a seven-term incumbent who's been convicted of numerous campaign finance ethics violations during his tenure, is projected to hold on with 52% of the vote to Democratic physician Amish Shah's 48%, with nearly all of the expected vote reporting.

California has offered a rare ray of sunshine for Democrats in this election, as ABC News reports that Democrat George Whitesides is projected to defeat Republican Rep. Mike Garcia in the state's 27th District, handing Democrats a GOP-held House seat in the northern Los Angeles suburbs. With 88% of the expected vote reporting, Whitesides leads Garcia 51.2% to 48.8%.

Garcia is the fourth House Republican incumbent projected to lose in the 2024 election, but the first outside of New York, which is home to the other three who've gone down. To be clear, Garcia was always in a tough spot: He's routinely had to defend a district that leaned slightly toward Democrats at the presidential level, but he managed to win three times — first in a 2019 special election to pick up the seat from the Democrats, then reelection in 2020 and again in 2022 to retain it for the GOP. But Democrats finally were able to flip his seat back.