Undecided races of the 2024 election: Live results and analysis

Election Day may have been 20 days ago, but we at 538 are still tracking a handful of unresolved races across the country! Over the weekend, ballot counting continued in California, but little changed in the 13th and 45th Districts — the two California districts where a winner has still not been projected. Republican Rep. John Duarte and Democrat Derek Tran are both clinging to small leads.

The only other House race that is still TBD is Iowa's 1st District, where a recount is currently underway. It's not expected to reverse Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks's lead, but we'll know for sure by Monday, Dec. 2. A few other downballot races are also being recounted: Today, there will be a hand recount of a Minnesota state House district that could decide control of the chamber, and the North Carolina Supreme Court recount must be concluded by Wednesday. We are also waiting to see if recounts will be requested in two extremely tight ballot-measure campaigns, over the legalization of sports betting in Missouri and the repeal of ranked-choice voting in Alaska.

Last night, California counties updated their vote tallies, and the margin in the state's 13th District U.S. House race is now just 0.1 percentage points. Republican Rep. John Duarte leads Democrat Adam Gray 50.05% to 49.95%, a raw vote margin of only 194 votes. It appears that there are roughly 5,000 unprocessed ballots left to count in the district, around half of which will come from Gray's home base of Merced County. But as Nathaniel pointed out last night, the race is so close that it could come down to "uncured ballots," which are ballots that have a signature issue that voters need to go and fix in order for their vote to count. There may be around 4,000 of those in the district, too. How this race will pan out is really anyone's guess at this point.

They're still counting ballots in California's 45th District, one of three U.S. House districts where a winner hasn't yet been projected. Last night, the two counties that are (partially) covered by the 45th District, Los Angeles and Orange, both reported new results, and they extended Democrat Derek Tran's lead over Republican Rep. Michelle Steel from 397 votes to 480 votes. There hasn't been a day that has resulted in more new ballots counted for Steel than for Tran since Nov. 6, so the trends here are favorable for Tran. However, there's no guarantee that those trends will continue, and with about 6,000 ballots left to process (according to my rough calculations), this race is still up in the air.

ABC News reports that Republican Dave McCormick is projected to defeat Democratic Sen. Bob Casey Jr. in Pennsylvania's U.S. Senate race. Casey conceded the race on Thursday. The not-yet-finalized results from Pennsylvania give McCormick about a 0.2-point lead, 48.8% to 48.6% — a raw vote lead of about 16,000 votes out of nearly 7 million cast. McCormick's victory over the three-term incumbent is a moderate upset, as 538's forecast gave him about a 3 in 10 shot of winning. With this projection, Republicans are set to have a 53-to-47 majority in the Senate at the start of the 119th Congress.